Oscars 2022 nominations predictions

[radiojazzz]

впервые за декаду пропустив год (прошлой зимой было не до этого), возвращаюсь к любимому занятию - угадыванию номинантов во всех полнометражных категориях "Оскара". интриг больше обычного, главные - кто займет последние две строчки в главной категории (мне кажется, Being the Ricardos и Drive My Car, но могут и Nightmare Alley, и Tick, Tick … Boom!, и Коэн, и даже Альмодовар) и прокатят ли Стюарт (мне кажется, прокатят). как всегда, стреляю себе в ногу и из принципа не ставлю на тех, кто меня особенно взбесил (Лето и Don't Look Up там, где это было возможно). как обычно, выпендрился, поставив на маловероятные попадания (Sparks в лучшие песни) и промахи ("Дюны" мимо лучшего сценария). как следствие, оказываюсь чуть ли не единственным, кто предрекает лидерство по сумме номинаций не Вильневу, а Кэмпион. ну, посмотрим

update:
2022 - 84/105 (80%)

рекап:

2020 - 86/109 (79%)
2019 - 85/106 (80%)
2018 - 84/107 (79%)
2017 - 87/107 (81%)
2016 - 81/107 (76%)
2015 - 78/107 (73%)
2014 - 83/108 (77%)
2013 - 79/101 (78%)
2012 - 74/104 (71%)
2011 - 73/107 (68%)

Best Picture
(9/10)

'The Power of the Dog'
'West Side Story'
'Belfast'
'Dune'
'Licorice Pizza'
'Don't Look Up'
'King Richard'
'CODA'
'Being the Ricardos'
'Drive My Car'

Best Director
(4/5)

Jane Campion, 'The Power of the Dog'
Paul Thomas Anderson, 'Licorice Pizza'
Steven Spielberg, 'West Side Story'
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, 'Drive My Car'
Denis Villeneuve, 'Dune'

Best Actor
(5/5)

Will Smith, 'King Richard'
Benedict Cumberbatch, 'The Power of the Dog'
Andrew Garfield, 'Tick, Tick … Boom!'
Denzel Washington, 'The Tragedy of Macbeth'
Javier Bardem, 'Being the Ricardos'

Best Actress
(4/5)

Nicole Kidman, 'Being the Ricardos'
Olivia Colman, 'The Lost Daughter'
Penélope Cruz, 'Parallel Mothers'
Lady Gaga, 'House of Gucci'
Jessica Chastain, 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'

Best Supporting Actor
(4/5)

Kodi Smit-McPhee, 'The Power of the Dog'
Ciarán Hinds, 'Belfast'
Troy Kotsur, 'CODA'
Bradley Cooper, 'Licorice Pizza'
Jesse Plemons, 'The Power of the Dog'

Best Supporting Actress
(3/5)

Ariana DeBose, 'West Side Story'
Kirsten Dunst, 'The Power of the Dog'
Caitríona Balfe, 'Belfast'
Cate Blanchett, 'Nightmare Alley'
Aunjanue Ellis, 'King Richard'

Best Original Screenplay
(4/5)

'Belfast'
'Licorice Pizza'
'Don't Look Up'
'Being the Ricardos'
'King Richard'

Best Adapted Screenplay
(4/5)

'The Power of the Dog'
'CODA'
'The Lost Daughter'
'Drive My Car'
'West Side Story'

Best Cinematography
(5/5)

'Dune'
'The Tragedy of Macbeth'
'The Power of the Dog'
'West Side Story'
'Nightmare Alley'

Best Costume Design
(4/5)

'Cruella'
'Dune'
'Nightmare Alley'
'House of Gucci'
'West Side Story'

Best Editing
(2/5)

'Dune'
'The Power of the Dog'
'Belfast'
'Licorice Pizza'
'West Side Story'

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
(4/5)

'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'
'Dune'
'Cruella'
'House of Gucci'
'The Suicide Squad'

Best Production Design
(4/5)

'Dune'
'Nightmare Alley'
'West Side Story'
'The Tragedy of Macbeth'
'The French Dispatch'

Best Original Score
(4/5)

'The Power of the Dog'
'Dune'
'The French Dispatch'
'Don’t Look Up'
'Encanto'

Best Original Song
(3/5)

'No Time to Die' ('No Time to Die')
'Encanto' ('Dos Oruguitas')
'King Richard' ('Be Alive')
'Don’t Look Up' ('Just Look Up')
'Annette' ('So May We Start')

Best Sound
(4/5)

'Dune'
'The Power of the Dog'
'No Time to Die'
'West Side Story'
'Spider-Man: No Way Home'

Best Visual Effects
(4/5)

'Dune'
'No Time to Die'
'Spider-Man: No Way Home'
'Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings'
'Godzilla vs. Kong'

Best Animated Feature
(5/5)

'Encanto'
'The Mitchells vs. The Machines'
'Luca'
'Raya and the Last Dragon'
'Flee'

Best Documentary Feature
(4/5)

'Summer of Soul'
'The Rescue'
'Ascension'
'Attica'
'Flee'

Best International Feature Film
(4/5)

'Drive My Car' (Japan)
'The Worst Person in the World' (Norway)
'A Hero' (Iran)
'Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom' (Bhutan)
'The Hand of God' (Italy)

PREDICTED TALLY:

11 - 'The Power of the Dog'
10 - 'Dune'
9 - 'West Side Story'
5 - 'Belfast'
5 - 'Licorice Pizza'
5 - 'King Richard'
4 - 'Don't Look Up'
4 - 'Being the Ricardos'
4 - 'Drive My Car'
4 - 'Nightmare Alley'
3 - 'CODA'
3 - 'The Tragedy of Macbeth'
3 - 'House of Gucci'
3 - 'Encanto'
3 - 'No Time to Die'
2 - 'The Lost Daughter'
2 - 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'
2 - 'Cruella'
2 - 'The French Dispatch'
2 - 'Spider-Man: No Way Home'
2 - 'Flee'
1 - et al.