Road to the Oscars: угадываю номинантов
ну и традиционное. три года назад у меня было 79 попаданий (из 101), два года назад - 74 (из 104) , в прошлом году - 73 (из 107), в этом пора идти на поправку - тем более что я в кои-то веки избежал соблазна делать совсем уж дикие прогнозы (за исключением двух или трех случаев) и почти не спорю с консенсусом
bullet points:
- в категории "Лучшая картина" будет не 6 или 7, не 8 или 9, а все 10 номинантов (да, я единственный, кто по-прежнему верит в перспективы Коэнов)
- 11-е место (о чем мы никто никогда не узнаем) займет 'Blue Jasmine', любовь к которому протащит в номинантки Салли Хокинс
- Скорсезе на фотофинише обойдет Пэйна, а ДиКаприо - Редфорда
- Стрип уступит дорогу Адамс
- Гэндолфини все же получит посмертную номинацию, а "Мандела" будет упомянут в обеих музыкальных категориях (к вопросу о диких прогнозах)
- все страшно удивятся упоминанию 'World War Z' в категории "Лучшие виузальные эффекты"
- и да, номинантами "Оскара" завтра проснутся и 'The Lone Ranger', и, страшно сказать, 'Bad Grandpa'
update: 83/108
Best Picture
(9/10)
'12 Years a Slave'
'Gravity'
'American Hustle'
'Captain Phillips'
'Nebraska'
'Dallas Buyers Club'
'Her'
'The Wolf of Wall Street'
'Philomena'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
Best Director
(4/5)
Alfonso Cuaron, 'Gravity'
Steve McQueen, '12 Years a Slave'
David O. Russell, 'American Hustle'
Paul Greengrass, 'Captain Phillips'
Martin Scorsese, 'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Actor
(4/5)
Chiwetel Ejiofor, '12 Years a Slave'
Matthew McCounaghey, 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Tom Hanks, 'Captain Phillips'
Bruce Dern, 'Nebraska'
Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Actress
(4/5)
Cate Blanchett, 'Blue Jasmine'
Sandra Bullock, 'Gravity'
Emma Thompson, 'Saving Mr. Banks'
Juldi Dench, 'Philomena'
Amy Adams, 'American Hustle'
Best Supporting Actor
(4/5)
Jared Leto, 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Michael Fassbender, '12 Years a Slave'
Barkhad Abdi, 'Captain Phillips'
Bradley Cooper, 'American Hustle'
James Gandolfini, 'Enough Said'
Best Supporting Actress
(4/5)
Lupita Nyong'o, '12 Years a Slave'
Jennifer Lawrence, 'American Hustle'
Opra Winfrey, 'Lee Daniels' The Butler'
June Squibb, 'Nebraska'
Sally Hawkins, 'Blue Jasmine'
Best Adapted Screenplay
(5/5)
'12 Years a Slave'
'Before Midnight'
'Philomena'
'Captain Phillips'
'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Original Screenplay
(4/5)
'American Hustle'
'Blue Jasmine'
'Her'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
'Nebraska'
Best Cinematography
(4/5)
'Gravity'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Prisoners'
'Nebraska'
Best Costume Design
(4/5)
'12 Years a Slave'
'The Great Gatsby'
'American Hustle'
'The Invisible Woman'
'Oz the Great and Powerful'
Best Film Editing
(4/5)
'Gravity'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Captain Phillips'
'American Hustle'
'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
(2/3)
'American Hustle'
'Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa'
'The Lone Ranger'
Best Original Score
(3/5)
'Gravity'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Saving Mr. Banks'
'The Book Thief'
'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom'
Best Original Song
(3/5)
'Frozen' ('Let It Go')
'The Great Gatsby' ('Young and Beautiful')
'Her' ('The Moon Song')
'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom' ('Ordinary Love')
'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug' ('I See Fire')
Best Production Design
(4/5)
'The Great Gatsby'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Gravity'
'Saving Mr. Banks'
'American Hustle'
Best Sound Editing
(4/5)
'Gravity'
'Rush'
'All Is Lost'
'Captain Phillips'
'Lone Survivor'
Best Sound Mixing
(3/5)
'Gravity'
'All Is Lost'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
'Captain Phillips'
'Rush'
Best Visual Effects
(3/5)
'Gravity'
'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug'
'Pacific Rim'
'Iron Man 3'
'World War Z'
Best Animated Feature Film
(4/5)
'Frozen'
'The Wind Rises'
'Monsters University'
'Despicable Me 2'
'Ernest & Celestine'
Best Documentary Feature
(3/5)
'The Act of Killing'
'The Square'
'Stories We Tell'
'20 Feet from Stardom'
'Blackfish'
Best Foreign Language Film
(4/5)
'The Hunt' (Denmark)
'The Broken Circle Breakdown' (Belgium)
'The Great Beauty' (Italy)
'Omar' (Palestine)
'The Notebook' (Hungary)
PREDICTED TALLY:
11 - '12 Years a Slave'
10 - 'Gravity'
10 - 'American Hustle'
8 - 'Captain Phillips'
5 - 'Nebraska'
5 - 'The Wolf of Wall Street'
4 - 'Inside Llewyn Davis'
3 - 'Dallas Buyers Club'
3 - 'Her'
3 - 'Philomena'
3 - 'Blue Jasmine'
3 - 'Saving Mr. Banks'
3 - 'The Great Gatsby'
2 - 'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom'
2 - 'Frozen'
2 - 'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug'
2 - 'Rush'
2 - 'All Is Lost'
1 - 'Enough Said'
1 - 'Lee Daniels' The Butler'
1 - 'Before Midnight'
1 - 'Prisoners'
1 - 'The Invisible Woman'
1 - 'Oz the Great and Powerful'
1 - 'Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa'
1 - 'The Lone Ranger'
1 - 'The Book Thief'
1 - 'Lone Survivor'
1 - 'Pacific Rim'
1 - 'Iron Man 3'
1 - 'World War Z'
1 - 'The Wind Rises'
1 - 'Monsters University'
1 - 'Despicable Me 2'
1 - 'Ernest & Celestine'
1 - 'The Act of Killing'
1 - 'The Square'
1 - 'Stories We Tell'
1 - '20 Feet from Stardom'
1 - 'Blackfish'
1 - 'The Hunt'
1 - 'The Broken Circle Breakdown'
1 - 'The Great Beauty'
1 - 'Omar'
1 - 'The Notebook'
bullet points:
- в категории "Лучшая картина" будет не 6 или 7, не 8 или 9, а все 10 номинантов (да, я единственный, кто по-прежнему верит в перспективы Коэнов)
- 11-е место (о чем мы никто никогда не узнаем) займет 'Blue Jasmine', любовь к которому протащит в номинантки Салли Хокинс
- Скорсезе на фотофинише обойдет Пэйна, а ДиКаприо - Редфорда
- Стрип уступит дорогу Адамс
- Гэндолфини все же получит посмертную номинацию, а "Мандела" будет упомянут в обеих музыкальных категориях (к вопросу о диких прогнозах)
- все страшно удивятся упоминанию 'World War Z' в категории "Лучшие виузальные эффекты"
- и да, номинантами "Оскара" завтра проснутся и 'The Lone Ranger', и, страшно сказать, 'Bad Grandpa'
update: 83/108
Best Picture
(9/10)
'12 Years a Slave'
'Gravity'
'American Hustle'
'Captain Phillips'
'Nebraska'
'Dallas Buyers Club'
'Her'
'The Wolf of Wall Street'
'Philomena'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
Best Director
(4/5)
Alfonso Cuaron, 'Gravity'
Steve McQueen, '12 Years a Slave'
David O. Russell, 'American Hustle'
Paul Greengrass, 'Captain Phillips'
Martin Scorsese, 'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Actor
(4/5)
Chiwetel Ejiofor, '12 Years a Slave'
Matthew McCounaghey, 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Tom Hanks, 'Captain Phillips'
Bruce Dern, 'Nebraska'
Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Actress
(4/5)
Cate Blanchett, 'Blue Jasmine'
Sandra Bullock, 'Gravity'
Emma Thompson, 'Saving Mr. Banks'
Juldi Dench, 'Philomena'
Amy Adams, 'American Hustle'
Best Supporting Actor
(4/5)
Jared Leto, 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Michael Fassbender, '12 Years a Slave'
Barkhad Abdi, 'Captain Phillips'
Bradley Cooper, 'American Hustle'
James Gandolfini, 'Enough Said'
Best Supporting Actress
(4/5)
Lupita Nyong'o, '12 Years a Slave'
Jennifer Lawrence, 'American Hustle'
Opra Winfrey, 'Lee Daniels' The Butler'
June Squibb, 'Nebraska'
Sally Hawkins, 'Blue Jasmine'
Best Adapted Screenplay
(5/5)
'12 Years a Slave'
'Before Midnight'
'Philomena'
'Captain Phillips'
'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Original Screenplay
(4/5)
'American Hustle'
'Blue Jasmine'
'Her'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
'Nebraska'
Best Cinematography
(4/5)
'Gravity'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Prisoners'
'Nebraska'
Best Costume Design
(4/5)
'12 Years a Slave'
'The Great Gatsby'
'American Hustle'
'The Invisible Woman'
'Oz the Great and Powerful'
Best Film Editing
(4/5)
'Gravity'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Captain Phillips'
'American Hustle'
'The Wolf of Wall Street'
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
(2/3)
'American Hustle'
'Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa'
'The Lone Ranger'
Best Original Score
(3/5)
'Gravity'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Saving Mr. Banks'
'The Book Thief'
'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom'
Best Original Song
(3/5)
'Frozen' ('Let It Go')
'The Great Gatsby' ('Young and Beautiful')
'Her' ('The Moon Song')
'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom' ('Ordinary Love')
'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug' ('I See Fire')
Best Production Design
(4/5)
'The Great Gatsby'
'12 Years a Slave'
'Gravity'
'Saving Mr. Banks'
'American Hustle'
Best Sound Editing
(4/5)
'Gravity'
'Rush'
'All Is Lost'
'Captain Phillips'
'Lone Survivor'
Best Sound Mixing
(3/5)
'Gravity'
'All Is Lost'
'Inside Llewyn Davis'
'Captain Phillips'
'Rush'
Best Visual Effects
(3/5)
'Gravity'
'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug'
'Pacific Rim'
'Iron Man 3'
'World War Z'
Best Animated Feature Film
(4/5)
'Frozen'
'The Wind Rises'
'Monsters University'
'Despicable Me 2'
'Ernest & Celestine'
Best Documentary Feature
(3/5)
'The Act of Killing'
'The Square'
'Stories We Tell'
'20 Feet from Stardom'
'Blackfish'
Best Foreign Language Film
(4/5)
'The Hunt' (Denmark)
'The Broken Circle Breakdown' (Belgium)
'The Great Beauty' (Italy)
'Omar' (Palestine)
'The Notebook' (Hungary)
PREDICTED TALLY:
11 - '12 Years a Slave'
10 - 'Gravity'
10 - 'American Hustle'
8 - 'Captain Phillips'
5 - 'Nebraska'
5 - 'The Wolf of Wall Street'
4 - 'Inside Llewyn Davis'
3 - 'Dallas Buyers Club'
3 - 'Her'
3 - 'Philomena'
3 - 'Blue Jasmine'
3 - 'Saving Mr. Banks'
3 - 'The Great Gatsby'
2 - 'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom'
2 - 'Frozen'
2 - 'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug'
2 - 'Rush'
2 - 'All Is Lost'
1 - 'Enough Said'
1 - 'Lee Daniels' The Butler'
1 - 'Before Midnight'
1 - 'Prisoners'
1 - 'The Invisible Woman'
1 - 'Oz the Great and Powerful'
1 - 'Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa'
1 - 'The Lone Ranger'
1 - 'The Book Thief'
1 - 'Lone Survivor'
1 - 'Pacific Rim'
1 - 'Iron Man 3'
1 - 'World War Z'
1 - 'The Wind Rises'
1 - 'Monsters University'
1 - 'Despicable Me 2'
1 - 'Ernest & Celestine'
1 - 'The Act of Killing'
1 - 'The Square'
1 - 'Stories We Tell'
1 - '20 Feet from Stardom'
1 - 'Blackfish'
1 - 'The Hunt'
1 - 'The Broken Circle Breakdown'
1 - 'The Great Beauty'
1 - 'Omar'
1 - 'The Notebook'