Oscars 2019: nominations predictions

[radiojazzz]

ну и куда без. в этом году сделаю аж три рискованных прогноза и поставлю на Павликовского вместо Фаррелли (потому что Cold War - шедевр, а Green Book - стыдоба), Апарисио (потому что должен же быть в актерских категориях хотя бы один сюрприз) и Тома (потому что как иначе - хотя на его месте будет, конечно же, Долли Партон). подозреваю, что переоцениваю First Man и недооцениваю Bohemian Rhapsody c Green Book (потому что First Man - шедевр, Bohemian Rhapsody - то же, что и Green Book, а я люблю жрать кактусы), ну да посмотрим

UPDATE:
2019 - 85/106 (80%)

2018 - 84/107 (79%)
2017 - 87/107 (81%)
2016 - 81/107 (76%)
2015 - 78/107 (73%)
2014 - 83/108 (77%)
2013 - 79/101 (78%)
2012 - 74/104 (71%)
2011 - 73/107 (68%)


Best Picture
(8/8)

'Roma'
'Green Book'
'A Star Is Born'
'BlacKkKlansman'
'Black Panther'
'Bohemian Rhapsody'
'The Favourite'
'Vice'
'If Beale Street Could Talk' (if 9)
'First Man' (if 10)

Best Director
(4/5)

Alfonso Cuarón, 'Roma'
Spike Lee, 'BlacKkKlansman'
Bradley Cooper, 'A Star is Born'
Yorgos Lanthimos, 'The Favourite'
Paweł Pawlikowski, 'Cold War'

Best Actor
(4/5)

Rami Malek, 'Bohemian Rhapsody'
Bradley Cooper, 'A Star Is Born'
Christian Bale, 'Vice'
Viggo Mortensen, 'Green Book'
John David Washington, 'BlacKkKlansman'

Best Actress
(5/5)

Glenn Close, 'The Wife'
Lady Gaga, 'A Star Is Born'
Olivia Colman, 'The Favourite'
Melissa McCarthy, 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
Yalitza Aparicio, 'Roma'

Best Supporting Actor
(4/5)

Mahershala Ali, 'Green Book'
Sam Elliott, 'A Star Is Born'
Richard E. Grant, 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
Adam Driver, 'BlacKkKlansman'
Timothée Chalamet, 'Beautiful Boy'

Best Supporting Actress
(4/5)

Regina King, 'If Beale Street Could Talk'
Amy Adams, 'Vice'
Emma Stone, 'The Favourite'
Rachel Weisz, 'The Favourite'
Claire Foy, 'First Man'

Best Adapted Screenplay
(4/5)

'BlacKkKlansman'
'If Beale Street Could Talk'
'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
'A Star Is Born'
'The Death of Stalin'

Best Original Screenplay
(4/5)

'The Favourite'
'Roma'
'Vice'
'Green Book'
'Eighth Grade'

Best Cinematography
(4/5)

'Roma'
'Cold War'
'The Favourite'
'First Man'
'If Beale Street Could Talk'

Best Costume Design
(4/5)

'The Favourite'
'Mary Queen of Scots'
'Black Panther'
'Bohemian Rhapsody'
'Mary Poppins Returns'

Best Film Editing
(2/5)

'First Man'
'A Star Is Born'
'Roma'
'The Favourite'
'Vice'

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
(3/3)

'Vice'
'Mary Queen of Scots'
'Border'

Best Original Score
(3/5)

'First Man'
'If Beale Street Could Talk'
'Isle of Dogs'
'A Quiet Place'
'Black Panther'

Best Original Song
(4/5)

'A Star Is Born' ('Shallow')
'Black Panther' ('All the Stars')
'RBG' ('I’ll Fight')
'Mary Poppins Returns' ('The Place Where Lost Things Go')
'Suspiria' ('Suspirium')

Best Production Design
(5/5)

'Black Panther'
'The Favourite'
'First Man'
'Roma'
'Mary Poppins Returns'

Best Sound Editing
(4/5)

'First Man'
'Mission: Impossible - Fallout'
'A Quiet Place'
'Black Panther'
'Roma'

Best Sound Mixing
(4/5)

'A Star Is Born'
'Bohemian Rhapsody'
'First Man'
'A Quiet Place'
'Roma'

Best Visual Effects
(3/5)

'Avengers: Infinity War'
'Black Panther'
'First Man'
'Ready Player One'
'Welcome to Marwen'

Best Animated Feature Film
(5/5)

'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse'
'Incredibles 2'
'Isle of Dogs'
'Mirai'
'Ralph Breaks the Internet'

Best Documentary Feature
(3/5)

'Won’t You Be My Neighbor?'
'Free Solo'
'RBG'
'Minding the Gap'
'Three Identical Strangers'

Best Foreign Language Film
(4/5)

'Roma' (Mexico)
'Cold War' (Poland)
'Shoplifters' (Japan)
'Capernaum' (Lebanon)
'Burning' (South Korea)

PREDICTED TALLY:

10 - 'Roma'
10 - 'The Favourite'
9 - 'A Star Is Born'
8 (or 9) - 'First Man'
7 - 'Black Panther'
6 - 'Vice'
5 - 'BlacKkKlansman'
4 - 'Green Book'
4 - 'Bohemian Rhapsody'
4 (or 5) - 'If Beale Street Could Talk'
3 - 'Cold War'
3 - 'Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
3 - 'Mary Poppins Returns'
3 - 'A Quiet Place'
2 - 'Mary Queen of Scots'
2 - 'Isle of Dogs'
2 - 'RBG'
1 - ...