Olympic Figure Skating for Dummies, Volume II
The Olympics are less than a week away! Anyone else excited?
Four years ago (my, how time flies!) I made an Olympic Figure Skating for Dummies post and quite a few people said they appreciated the rundown on the podium contenders. So I thought I'd do it again for the casual skating watchers out there. I tried my best to get pictures of the skaters wearing their current costumes so they'll be easier to recognize. What follows will be a mix of facts and my own opinion, but the difference should be easy to spot. For example, "Plushenko made a deal with the devil!" = opinion. *g*
Schedule
All times are EST.
Sunday, February 14: Pairs short program -- 7:30 p.m.
Monday, February 15: Pairs free skate -- 8:00 p.m.
Tuesday, February 16: Men short program -- 7:15 p.m.
Thursday, February 18: Men free skate -- 8:00 p.m.
Friday, February 19: Compulsory dance -- 7:45 p.m.
Sunday, February 21: Original dance -- 7:15 p.m.
Monday, Feburary 22: Free dance -- 7:45 p.m.
Tuesday, February 23: Women short program -- 7:30 p.m.
Thursday, February 25: Women free skate -- 8:00 p.m.
Saturday, February 27: Gala exhibition
Scoring
The scoring in skating is still controversial, but I think there is definitely less bullshit scoring than in the past. There is constant change at the top of the standings, which wasn't the case in the old system. Skaters can't just get by on reputation anymore. For example, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubacher were the two-time US National champs in pairs until January, and it was simply assumed by all that they'd be going to Vancouver. They've been part of ad campaigns, etc., and were certainly the heavy favourites. But they made mistakes on three elements in the short program, and they were done just like that. Back in the day, the judges definitely would have held them up in about third place so they could still win in the free skate, bt with the new system, they were seventh after the short and couldn't come back from it.
Back in the day, you could predict the outcome of every ice dance event, barring any major falls. The only real movements in the standings came when teams retired and others moved up. The rankings were so set in stone and teams had to chip away bit by bit to move up. Not so anymore. If you look at the points this season at international events, Americans Meryl Davis and Charlie White are the leaders, and they are the fourth ranked team in the world (going by the last Worlds). Under the old system, a leap like that wouldn't have happened.
So while it ain't perfect, it's an improvement. The real issue is the judges themselves. Some of them are still corrupt and the ISU needs to fix it. I say once you've been caught cheating or being influenced, no more judging for you! Ever! I really hope it's a fair event in Vancouver.
The COP (Code of Points) in a nutshell:
At the core of the new code is a technical panel which assigns specific point levels for each element in a skater's program. Judges merely have to add or deduct points from the basic mark for the skater's grade of execution of each element. The computer does the rest.
Then they add up the points and you get your score. Areas to watch for are:
* Whether or not jumps are fully rotated in the air
* Whether the jump is landed cleanly on one foot
* If a skater cheats an edge on a jump: For example, a Lutz goes from the back outside edge; some skaters will move to the inside edge at the last second, which is easier (and makes the jump a "flutz")
These are things that aren't always visible in real time, but the Technical Specialist for the judging panel has video replay and sometimes the scores are delayed as he or she determines whether a jump was cleanly landed. So the result is that sometimes a program can look really good to the crowd or to us at home, but the marks aren't as high as expected because the skater cheated the edges on a few jumps or had a two-foot landing we couldn't see. Oksana Baiul would not have won her gold medal back in the day if they'd had video replay. Two-foots all over the place. So overall it is much fairer now.
The GOE (Grade of Execution) on elements is extremely important. This is one of the great things about the COP; spins, footwork and transitions between elements are really vital. Yes, you still have to land the jumps, but the whole package is usually what wins these days. The GOE is graded from one to four, with one being lowest. So a skater might put a hand down on a jump, but then get fours on his spins and footwork and make up the lost points.
I think maybe the most important thing to consider overall is the old adage that while you can't win in the short program, you can lose. Evan Lysacek had a brilliant free skate in Torino in 2006, but ended up fourth overall because he was tenth in the short. You can't underestimate the short program.
Men
For the men, the quad jump (four revolutions) will once again be a big topic of conversation. You can still win without it, and you definitely need more than the quad to win, but a good quad can certainly help.
The problem with the quad is that it can be overwhelming. If a skater lands it, they can get too excited and lose their grip on the rest of the program. If a skater falls on it, they can get upset and flub the rest. It's the riskiest jump, hands down. Some skaters don't feel the loss of points and confidence if they miss it is worth the risk. Others love boasting about their quads as if they are a source of manhood. (Brian Joubert, your ears should be burning.) But a quad isn't everything. There are young guys who can reel off quads in their sleep, but don't have the full package and won't win without it. For example, Canadian Kevin Reynolds often does at least two quads in his free skate, but he didn't make the Olympic team.
Along with the quad, there is the triple Axel (three and a half revolutions). I'd say this is the most important jump overall in men's skating because while you don't always need a quad to win, you must have the triple Axel. In the short, and in the long (usually twice in the long, once in combination). An Axel is the only jump that takes off going forward, so it's easy to spot.
All right, here are the podium contenders for the men in Vancouver. The men's field is the deepest it's been in my memory and there are ten men who are in the running.
Evgeni Plushenko, Russia
Yes, he's back. Yes, I still hate him. I will give him credit in that he did get his fat ass in shape this year and has somehow, against all odds, maintained his machine-like jumping consistency. I think it is clearly some kind of deal with the devil. (That would also explain the perma-mullet.) While I recognize that he's a terrific jumper, the rest of his skating leaves me cold and his huge ego turns me off. His footwork and transitions have always been overmarked and continue to be, unfortunately. (Again, that pact with Satan would explain a lot!)
HOWEVER. Unlike four years ago, I believe Plushenko can be beaten. Last time, he could only be beaten my himself, but I do think that if someone else can put down a perfect performance, they can do it.
Jeremy Abbott, USA
The well-deserved two-time US champion has the whole package. The quad, the other jumps, the spins, the artisty, the transitions, the everything. He came seemingly out of nowhere last season to win the Grand Prix Final and US Nationals, and then faltered at Worlds. He changed coaches to former World Champion Yuka Sato, and she has been a terrific influence. (Please note his classy costumes!)
Jeremy skated lights out at Nationals last month, and I'm really, really hoping he still has two perfect programs left in the bag. Would love to see him on the podium.
Patrick Chan, Canada
Current World silver medallist. I adore Patrick Chan utterly. He's what they call a "skater's skater" -- impeccable edges and footwork and everything. I think he and Jeremy Abbott are two of a kind in that respect. Patrick is working on his quad and says he'll have it ready for Vancouver, but I'm not holding my breath. He's still a teenager and is under SO much pressure here to win at home. Honestly, if he can medal I'll be thrilled. He's had a tough season with injury and then an abrupt coaching change early in 2010. His long program is to "Phantom of the Opera," which pains me since that music should be banned for overuse for at least 10 years (along with "Carmen," good lord), but it's still a thing of beauty.
Patrick has handled the pressure with grace and class. I just want him to skate his best and be happy. He's such a great kid.
Daisuke Takahashi, Japan
Takahashi is another complete skater in that he's got the tricks and the technical expertise. His jumps seem to explode out of nowhere and he's very enjoyable to watch. Was out all last season with a knee injury and has had a rocky road this year. However he won Japanese Nationals, and is definitely a top contender. He has fantastic musicality and expression, and great choreography.
Brian Joubert, France
Joubert and I tend not to get along very well because he's often a blowhard who cares about nothing but the quad and is a very bad loser when he's beaten. That said, I don't hate him the way I hate Plushenko. Joubert injured his foot badly in December, but is definitely tough and dedicated and is fighting back. He had a great short at the European Championship in late January, but couldn't keep it together for the long. He's always been a question mark, but the foot will make him a bigger one than usual for Vancouver. He lives and dies by his jumps, so those will tell the tale.
Evan Lysacek, USA
Defending World Champion. I used to like Evan a lot more than I do this season. He's worn an ever-changing parade of ugly Vera Wang costumes (they may be designer, but they ugly!) and his coach Frank Carroll really got in my bad books by basically suggesting in a press conference that Evan should have won Nationals this year since he was World Champ. One of the reporters was like, Um, did you even watch Jeremy Abbott skate rings around Evan? Bitch, PLEASE. Bad losers are high on my shit list. Evan apparently also didn't stay on the ice after the medal ceremony to do a loop of the rink and sign autographs and hug fans with Jeremy and Johnny Weir and Ryan Bradley (fourth place in the US gets a pewter medal). Gosh, Evan, had somewhere more important to be? Stuff like that makes me :| Stop it, Evan. I want to love you again.
Evan's quad is 50/50, and his triple Axel is his nemesis. However, he's certainly a top contender if he can put it down in Vancouver. He's not World Champion for nothing.
Nobunari Oda, Japan
Oda was out for almost two seasons because of a DUI conviction (he was on a moped; not that it's any excuse). It was all very shameful for him and you know how the Japanese are about shame. (I wouldn't have wanted to be him when the Japanese Skating Federation found out! Yikes.) But he's back and has a really winning long program with a Charlie Chaplin theme that plays to his strengths very well. Although he looks 12, he's actually almost 23 (I know!) and is a strong jumper. He's had a good season, although was beaten at home by Takahashi. Still, the podium is definitely within reach.
Johnny Weir, USA
The ultimate skating drama queen (I'm amazed he didn't go into ice dancing!), Johnny never gives a boring interview or wears a boring costume. Won the bronze medal at Worlds in 2008, and then had a disastrous US Nationals last year and was left off the team. He's been up and down this season, and I think gold is out of his reach. He doesn't have a quad, but if he skates his best, he could definitely be on the podium. It'll be tough, but it's possible. I really hope he does skates his best and is happy. I've always loved Johnny.
Stephane Lambiel, Switzerland
(Glamour shot for the hell of it because he's so pretty)
Olympic silver medallist in 2006 and former World Champion. Stephane won silver at the recent Europeans, but he's a long shot in Vancouver. His quad is there but the other jumps not so much. The triple Axel has always been his achilles heel. His spins and footwork and everything else is utterly gorgeous and he is a complete and lovely package. He just needs those jumps.
Stephane retired a couple of seasons ago, but came back this year. He couldn't compete on the Grand Prix circuit because he'd been gone and hadn't qualified, so he's lacking in competition mileage. It could really go either way with him.
Tomas Verner, Czech Republic
Verner has had such a disaster of a season that I almost left him off this list. He's had one terrible competition after the next. HOWEVER. He has a quad and a good overall package and if he's on, he can definitely be on the podium. Consistency has always been his downfall. I don't expect him to conquer that demon in Vancouver, but stranger things have happened.
Takahiko Kozuka
Kozuka is a long shot, but I included him here just in case. He is coached by Yuka Sato's father and Yuka often does his choreo and classy costumes. (No feathers! No snakes!) He came totally out of nowhere last season to win Skate America, and has great potential for the future. Seems to have lost some momentum this season and it's very doubtful he'll be on the podium in Vancouver. Still, you never know.
Women
Yu-Na Kim, South Korea
Yu-Na Kim can only be beaten by Yu-Na Kim. If she skates her best, she will be Olympic champion, no doubt about it. Of course, the question remains as to whether or not the pressure will get to her. She's been a bit inconsistent this season and is under enormous pressure in South Korea as a majority celebrity. She trains and lives in Toronto and is coached by former Olympic silver medallist Brian Orser. He's done a fantastic job bringing out the best in Yu-Na and letting her personality and artistic side flourish. Yu-Na is an amazing skater with the whole package, but like everyone, she needs to do it when it counts.
Note: NBC insists on calling her "Kim Yu-Na" because in Korea they say the last name first. I find it insanely annoying. I mean, when Brian Orser talks about her, he calls her "Yu-Na" because that's her name. I know different countries have a different way of doing things, but it's so jarring to hear it in English because that's not how anyone in the skating world refers to her. Anyway, it drives me batty, but just so you know if you hear her name reversed, it's just NBC knocking themselves out trying to be culturally sensitive.
Mao Asada, Japan
This season has been largely disastrous for Mao. Didn't make the Grand Prix Final, but she did rally to win Japanese Nationals, which is a tough task, especially for the women. Her coach is Russian Tatiana Tarasova, and I (as well as much of the skating world) think the two are totally mismatched. Mao is a bright and lively girl, and her free skate is a Russian dirge. I think she should have left Tarasova after last season didn't go well, but she stayed with her.
Mao is a former World Champion, but has lost so much momentum the last two seasons. She's a lovely skater, but I think her confidence is sorely lacking right now. She's one of the few women in history who can do a triple Axel, and she apparently has three planned for Vancouver. The problem is that, much like the quad with the men, Mao's triple Axel can completely overwhelm the rest of her program. I think there is way too much risk without enough reward, and that she should be focusing on the whole package and not one jump. I've really felt sorry for her this season and I don't think she's getting good guidance. But we'll see how it goes.
Joannie Rochette, Canada
Joannie is the reigning World silver medallist. She has the complete package, but consistency has plagued her this season. If she skates her best, she should definitely be on the podium. But will she? It makes me nervous just thinking about it! She has the jumps, spins, choreography and everything she needs. For Joannie, it's all between the ears. I mean, it is for everyone, but she needs to put two good performances back to back for the first time this season. She's under intense pressure to medal in Canada, and I'm hoping she can handle it.
Miki Ando, Japan
Miki is a former World Champion and her forte is the jumps. She's never been my fave because there's not a lot of passion and artistry to her skating, IMO. She's a great jumper, though, and she certainly is a strong threat for the podium. She won the Grand Prix Final in December.
Akiko Suzuki, Japan
Akiko fought damn hard this season to make the Japanese team. Japan is so deep in the women that there are still two or three women who didn't make the team who would be podium contenders as well. Akiko was out of competition the past two years due to a very serious struggle with anorexia. She says that her love for skating is what helped her recover. She certainly has what it takes to medal, although I'd expect gold to be out of her reach.
Carolina Kostner, Italy
Honestly, I'll be shocked if Carolina can hold it together in Vancouver, but if she does, she could be a podium contender. She's had a largely terrible season, although she won Europeans recently. Still, it's not exactly a deep field over there for the women these days and she didn't skate clean. Carolina has medalled at Worlds before (as high as silver), but I think she's on the downward part of her career now. We shall see.
No Americans on this list for the first time in my memory! Anything is possible, but I don't expect Rachael Flatt or Mirai Nagasu to medal in Vancouver. Rachael is a great jumper, but the rest of her skating leaves me cold. Mirai definitely has potential for the future, but she cheats too many jumps right now. For either to be on the podium there would have to be a big meltdown from some of the ladies on this list. It's possible, but very unlikely.
Pairs
Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao, China
After two years of retirement and getting married, they're back and still as amazing as ever. Two-time Olympic bronze medallists and three-time World Champions, they are the sentimental favourites to win. Not to mention they're up there on the list of all-time greats. I really, really want them to get that elusive gold, and I think they will if they skate their best. They're probably the oldest contenders on this entire list at 31 and 36. I'm rooting hard for them!
Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy, Germany
Two-time World Champions, this team has explosive throws and have always been unique. You might have noticed the clown makeup and attire in the first picture, which is for their short program this season, set to -- wait for it -- "Send in the Clowns." Now, this isn't ice dance, and I wish they'd lose the make-up, but I have to give them credit for always going their own way and being different. That program is beautifully choreographed and if they skate it well, you won't care what they're wearing.
Their free skate is a more traditional program to "Out of Africa" and it's lovely. If they're on, they will be very hard to beat. I think it'll be very close between then and S/Z if both do their best. I give the edge to the Chinese, but just.
Qing Pang and Jian Tong, China
Pang and Tong have come so far with their artistry and are much more well-rounded than they were a few years ago when they won the World Championship. They have a great free skate to "The Impossible Dream" and if they skate well, are serious contenders. Watch for their twists and throws, which are huuuuge.
Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov, Russia
I honestly never thought I'd see the day a non-Russian skated for Russia. Yuko is Japanese and attained her Russian citizenship last year. She even Russianed up her name, which was formerly "Kawaguchi." I can't stand this team. Probably because they can't stand each other and it's painfully obvious. There's such a lack of chemistry between them and I've never liked watching them skate. Kurt Browning (as a commentator) told an anecdote on CBC earlier this season about touring with K/S in the summer and how after every single performance, Yuko ripped Alexander a new one on things he had to improve.
The euphemism used is that she "wears the pants" in the partnership. When she dislocated her shoulder on a throw earlier this season, Alexander could barely muster up any concern. (I will give her credit for being tough, though -- she finished the routine! How she did any lifts with her shoulder out of joint is beyond me.) I just find them totally lacking in the magic that makes pairs skating special. Meh.
Maria Mukhortova and Maxim Trankov, Russia
And the meh continues. As does the hate! This is another team that can't stand each other. At Skate Canada, Kurt Browning and Tracy Wilson were marvelling at the fact that Maria can train hours a day with Maxim and never once look him in the eye or talk to him (as evidenced at practice sessions that week). She talks only to their coach. They're hilariously skating to "Love Story" for their free skate, and if only there was an ounce of love there! I have no idea what happened between them, but again, that magic is missing. But I'm sure they're working on that, so it might have improved. Although when you have a pair who never look each other in the eye, it's hard to have much chemistry!
However, this team is really strong technically and have had a great season. They were second to K/S at Russian Nationals, and from what I understand there's no love lost between the teams either. Gosh, doesn't pairs skating in Russia sound fun?
Jessica Dube and Bryce Davison, Canada
Okay, back to the magical pairs skating that I love. You might remember reading about Jessica and Bryce in my LJ when Jessica's face was sliced by Bryce's skate. She fully recovered and they won bronze at Worlds in 2008. However, last season wasn't good. They had a bad break-up off the ice and their skating really suffered. All that chemistry they had was missing (understandably). But they went to therapy and really worked on their partnership and now they're back in excellent shape.
Their long program is to "The Way We Were" and it was evident at Canadian Nationals that they've regained their friendship and affection for each other. I was in tears at the end of their free skate seeing them hug each other so tightly. I've heard that they're back together off the ice as well, so who knows! At the very least I'm so happy they're friends again.
If they skate their best, the podium is within reach, but with so many good teams, it will be very hard to get there. I just want them to be happy with their performances. I love this team so much.
Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang, China
If you watched the last Olympics, you surely remember Dan's fall on the throw quad attempt. They went on to win the silver, and have medalled at Worlds, but really have never lived up to their potential. They're so up and down, and I'll be very surprised if they medal in Vancouver. It's certainly possible, but improbable if the other teams skate well.
I've always hoped to see more from the Zhangs, and Hao in particular has a really outgoing and appealing personality. But they've been eclipsed by Pang and Tong and certainly by the return of Shen and Zhao.
Ice Dance
For the first time in history, North America is actually the strongest region in this discipline! Will wonders never cease. I just hope that the judging is honest and we get a fair result. I think the future of ice dance at the Olympics really depends on it.
Meryl Davis and Charlie White, USA
This has been Meryl and Charlie's season. Although they've never won a world medal yet, they're the leading team internationally and they beat Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto for their second US title (B/A were out last year with an injury). The theme for the Original Dance this year is a folk dance, and they're doing a great Indian/Bollywood dance. Their free skate is to the aforementioned overused "Phantom of the Opera" (and I actually like the music, I'm just so sick of it in skating), but it's a masterpiece. They are the reigning Grand Prix Final Champions.
Meryl and Charlie have been together since they were small children and train with Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir in Canton, Michigan. The two teams are neck and neck, but have somehow stayed great friends through it all.
Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, Canada
No one brings romance to the ice like Tessa and Scott. Skating together since she was seven and he nine, they're BFF and have gorgeous chemistry together even though they're not a couple off the ice. They've had a meteoric rise up the ice dance ranks. She's now 19 and he's 21, and they are, in my opinion, the best ice dance team in the world. Not only that, they'll be ranked among the greats in history. They won the World silver medal their second year in senior competition, which is absolutely unheard of in ice dance. They won the bronze last year even after a truncated season.
I want them to win so badly that I'm going to be a nervous wreck. More than anything I want them to skate their best. As I mentioned, they were off much of last season because Tessa had to have painful surgery on both her shins due to a condition called compartment syndrome. But they're 100% healthy now.
Tessa and Scott are only a hair behind Meryl and Charlie in points this season, and it's going to be v.v. close. Meryl and Charlie have the dramatic Phantom program, and Tessa and Scott are soft and romantic. I guess we'll see which the judges like best.
Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto, USA
Olympic silver medallists in 2006 and have won several World medals -- but not the elusive gold. Tanith and Ben have lost momentum the past few seasons. They used to train with Davis/White and Virtue/Moir in Michigan, but left two years ago after a fifth place finish at Worlds (Tanith fell in the Compulsories). I quite like Tanith and Ben, but I don't love them. Their "Ave Maria" free skate is pretty, but they're number three in my books.
I think it would be totally awesome if these three teams took the podium. Not only because they're North American and that would make history, but because they're all pals. Here's a fun picture from when they all trained together (along with another team, but I'm not sure who they are):
Cute! Go, North America!
Oksana Domnina and Maxim Shabalin, Russia
You're probably asking yourself WTF they're wearing in that picture, and the answer is their version of Australian Aborigine costumes. Maxim even has dark foundation on his face. (!) Few people outside Russia have responded positively to this program, least of all the Aborigines. I just read that they're keeping the programs but changing the costumes, and I'm assuming the blackface will also be going. I mean, honestly.
I can't stand this team. They won Worlds last year and didn't deserve it one bit. They're totally overmarked and always have been. They've been out most of this season with Maxim's knee troubles, and if they are on that podium in Vancouver I will be calling foul. FOUL.
Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder, France
World Champions in 2008. Isabelle just had a baby in the fall, and the Olympics will be their first competition all year. That doesn't bode well for them, but if they're well trained, they certainly could be on the podium. They're very good, and I certainly like them better than the Russians, which is something.
Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski, Russia
Definite long shots in Vancouver. Surprise, I don't really care for this team. But lest you think I just automatically hate Russians, I've loved many, many Russian skaters in the past (Alexi Yagudin, Gordeeva/Grinkov, Irina Slutskaya, etc.)! I'm just meh on the current batch.
So there you have it. I love talking skating (as if you couldn't tell if you actually read this whole post!) so do comment if you have any questions or differences of opinion or squee or whathaveyou.
Four years ago (my, how time flies!) I made an Olympic Figure Skating for Dummies post and quite a few people said they appreciated the rundown on the podium contenders. So I thought I'd do it again for the casual skating watchers out there. I tried my best to get pictures of the skaters wearing their current costumes so they'll be easier to recognize. What follows will be a mix of facts and my own opinion, but the difference should be easy to spot. For example, "Plushenko made a deal with the devil!" = opinion. *g*
Schedule
All times are EST.
Sunday, February 14: Pairs short program -- 7:30 p.m.
Monday, February 15: Pairs free skate -- 8:00 p.m.
Tuesday, February 16: Men short program -- 7:15 p.m.
Thursday, February 18: Men free skate -- 8:00 p.m.
Friday, February 19: Compulsory dance -- 7:45 p.m.
Sunday, February 21: Original dance -- 7:15 p.m.
Monday, Feburary 22: Free dance -- 7:45 p.m.
Tuesday, February 23: Women short program -- 7:30 p.m.
Thursday, February 25: Women free skate -- 8:00 p.m.
Saturday, February 27: Gala exhibition
Scoring
The scoring in skating is still controversial, but I think there is definitely less bullshit scoring than in the past. There is constant change at the top of the standings, which wasn't the case in the old system. Skaters can't just get by on reputation anymore. For example, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubacher were the two-time US National champs in pairs until January, and it was simply assumed by all that they'd be going to Vancouver. They've been part of ad campaigns, etc., and were certainly the heavy favourites. But they made mistakes on three elements in the short program, and they were done just like that. Back in the day, the judges definitely would have held them up in about third place so they could still win in the free skate, bt with the new system, they were seventh after the short and couldn't come back from it.
Back in the day, you could predict the outcome of every ice dance event, barring any major falls. The only real movements in the standings came when teams retired and others moved up. The rankings were so set in stone and teams had to chip away bit by bit to move up. Not so anymore. If you look at the points this season at international events, Americans Meryl Davis and Charlie White are the leaders, and they are the fourth ranked team in the world (going by the last Worlds). Under the old system, a leap like that wouldn't have happened.
So while it ain't perfect, it's an improvement. The real issue is the judges themselves. Some of them are still corrupt and the ISU needs to fix it. I say once you've been caught cheating or being influenced, no more judging for you! Ever! I really hope it's a fair event in Vancouver.
The COP (Code of Points) in a nutshell:
At the core of the new code is a technical panel which assigns specific point levels for each element in a skater's program. Judges merely have to add or deduct points from the basic mark for the skater's grade of execution of each element. The computer does the rest.
Then they add up the points and you get your score. Areas to watch for are:
* Whether or not jumps are fully rotated in the air
* Whether the jump is landed cleanly on one foot
* If a skater cheats an edge on a jump: For example, a Lutz goes from the back outside edge; some skaters will move to the inside edge at the last second, which is easier (and makes the jump a "flutz")
These are things that aren't always visible in real time, but the Technical Specialist for the judging panel has video replay and sometimes the scores are delayed as he or she determines whether a jump was cleanly landed. So the result is that sometimes a program can look really good to the crowd or to us at home, but the marks aren't as high as expected because the skater cheated the edges on a few jumps or had a two-foot landing we couldn't see. Oksana Baiul would not have won her gold medal back in the day if they'd had video replay. Two-foots all over the place. So overall it is much fairer now.
The GOE (Grade of Execution) on elements is extremely important. This is one of the great things about the COP; spins, footwork and transitions between elements are really vital. Yes, you still have to land the jumps, but the whole package is usually what wins these days. The GOE is graded from one to four, with one being lowest. So a skater might put a hand down on a jump, but then get fours on his spins and footwork and make up the lost points.
I think maybe the most important thing to consider overall is the old adage that while you can't win in the short program, you can lose. Evan Lysacek had a brilliant free skate in Torino in 2006, but ended up fourth overall because he was tenth in the short. You can't underestimate the short program.
Men
For the men, the quad jump (four revolutions) will once again be a big topic of conversation. You can still win without it, and you definitely need more than the quad to win, but a good quad can certainly help.
The problem with the quad is that it can be overwhelming. If a skater lands it, they can get too excited and lose their grip on the rest of the program. If a skater falls on it, they can get upset and flub the rest. It's the riskiest jump, hands down. Some skaters don't feel the loss of points and confidence if they miss it is worth the risk. Others love boasting about their quads as if they are a source of manhood. (Brian Joubert, your ears should be burning.) But a quad isn't everything. There are young guys who can reel off quads in their sleep, but don't have the full package and won't win without it. For example, Canadian Kevin Reynolds often does at least two quads in his free skate, but he didn't make the Olympic team.
Along with the quad, there is the triple Axel (three and a half revolutions). I'd say this is the most important jump overall in men's skating because while you don't always need a quad to win, you must have the triple Axel. In the short, and in the long (usually twice in the long, once in combination). An Axel is the only jump that takes off going forward, so it's easy to spot.
All right, here are the podium contenders for the men in Vancouver. The men's field is the deepest it's been in my memory and there are ten men who are in the running.
Evgeni Plushenko, Russia
Yes, he's back. Yes, I still hate him. I will give him credit in that he did get his fat ass in shape this year and has somehow, against all odds, maintained his machine-like jumping consistency. I think it is clearly some kind of deal with the devil. (That would also explain the perma-mullet.) While I recognize that he's a terrific jumper, the rest of his skating leaves me cold and his huge ego turns me off. His footwork and transitions have always been overmarked and continue to be, unfortunately. (Again, that pact with Satan would explain a lot!)
HOWEVER. Unlike four years ago, I believe Plushenko can be beaten. Last time, he could only be beaten my himself, but I do think that if someone else can put down a perfect performance, they can do it.
Jeremy Abbott, USA
The well-deserved two-time US champion has the whole package. The quad, the other jumps, the spins, the artisty, the transitions, the everything. He came seemingly out of nowhere last season to win the Grand Prix Final and US Nationals, and then faltered at Worlds. He changed coaches to former World Champion Yuka Sato, and she has been a terrific influence. (Please note his classy costumes!)
Jeremy skated lights out at Nationals last month, and I'm really, really hoping he still has two perfect programs left in the bag. Would love to see him on the podium.
Patrick Chan, Canada
Current World silver medallist. I adore Patrick Chan utterly. He's what they call a "skater's skater" -- impeccable edges and footwork and everything. I think he and Jeremy Abbott are two of a kind in that respect. Patrick is working on his quad and says he'll have it ready for Vancouver, but I'm not holding my breath. He's still a teenager and is under SO much pressure here to win at home. Honestly, if he can medal I'll be thrilled. He's had a tough season with injury and then an abrupt coaching change early in 2010. His long program is to "Phantom of the Opera," which pains me since that music should be banned for overuse for at least 10 years (along with "Carmen," good lord), but it's still a thing of beauty.
Patrick has handled the pressure with grace and class. I just want him to skate his best and be happy. He's such a great kid.
Daisuke Takahashi, Japan
Takahashi is another complete skater in that he's got the tricks and the technical expertise. His jumps seem to explode out of nowhere and he's very enjoyable to watch. Was out all last season with a knee injury and has had a rocky road this year. However he won Japanese Nationals, and is definitely a top contender. He has fantastic musicality and expression, and great choreography.
Brian Joubert, France
Joubert and I tend not to get along very well because he's often a blowhard who cares about nothing but the quad and is a very bad loser when he's beaten. That said, I don't hate him the way I hate Plushenko. Joubert injured his foot badly in December, but is definitely tough and dedicated and is fighting back. He had a great short at the European Championship in late January, but couldn't keep it together for the long. He's always been a question mark, but the foot will make him a bigger one than usual for Vancouver. He lives and dies by his jumps, so those will tell the tale.
Evan Lysacek, USA
Defending World Champion. I used to like Evan a lot more than I do this season. He's worn an ever-changing parade of ugly Vera Wang costumes (they may be designer, but they ugly!) and his coach Frank Carroll really got in my bad books by basically suggesting in a press conference that Evan should have won Nationals this year since he was World Champ. One of the reporters was like, Um, did you even watch Jeremy Abbott skate rings around Evan? Bitch, PLEASE. Bad losers are high on my shit list. Evan apparently also didn't stay on the ice after the medal ceremony to do a loop of the rink and sign autographs and hug fans with Jeremy and Johnny Weir and Ryan Bradley (fourth place in the US gets a pewter medal). Gosh, Evan, had somewhere more important to be? Stuff like that makes me :| Stop it, Evan. I want to love you again.
Evan's quad is 50/50, and his triple Axel is his nemesis. However, he's certainly a top contender if he can put it down in Vancouver. He's not World Champion for nothing.
Nobunari Oda, Japan
Oda was out for almost two seasons because of a DUI conviction (he was on a moped; not that it's any excuse). It was all very shameful for him and you know how the Japanese are about shame. (I wouldn't have wanted to be him when the Japanese Skating Federation found out! Yikes.) But he's back and has a really winning long program with a Charlie Chaplin theme that plays to his strengths very well. Although he looks 12, he's actually almost 23 (I know!) and is a strong jumper. He's had a good season, although was beaten at home by Takahashi. Still, the podium is definitely within reach.
Johnny Weir, USA
The ultimate skating drama queen (I'm amazed he didn't go into ice dancing!), Johnny never gives a boring interview or wears a boring costume. Won the bronze medal at Worlds in 2008, and then had a disastrous US Nationals last year and was left off the team. He's been up and down this season, and I think gold is out of his reach. He doesn't have a quad, but if he skates his best, he could definitely be on the podium. It'll be tough, but it's possible. I really hope he does skates his best and is happy. I've always loved Johnny.
Stephane Lambiel, Switzerland
(Glamour shot for the hell of it because he's so pretty)
Olympic silver medallist in 2006 and former World Champion. Stephane won silver at the recent Europeans, but he's a long shot in Vancouver. His quad is there but the other jumps not so much. The triple Axel has always been his achilles heel. His spins and footwork and everything else is utterly gorgeous and he is a complete and lovely package. He just needs those jumps.
Stephane retired a couple of seasons ago, but came back this year. He couldn't compete on the Grand Prix circuit because he'd been gone and hadn't qualified, so he's lacking in competition mileage. It could really go either way with him.
Tomas Verner, Czech Republic
Verner has had such a disaster of a season that I almost left him off this list. He's had one terrible competition after the next. HOWEVER. He has a quad and a good overall package and if he's on, he can definitely be on the podium. Consistency has always been his downfall. I don't expect him to conquer that demon in Vancouver, but stranger things have happened.
Takahiko Kozuka
Kozuka is a long shot, but I included him here just in case. He is coached by Yuka Sato's father and Yuka often does his choreo and classy costumes. (No feathers! No snakes!) He came totally out of nowhere last season to win Skate America, and has great potential for the future. Seems to have lost some momentum this season and it's very doubtful he'll be on the podium in Vancouver. Still, you never know.
Women
Yu-Na Kim, South Korea
Yu-Na Kim can only be beaten by Yu-Na Kim. If she skates her best, she will be Olympic champion, no doubt about it. Of course, the question remains as to whether or not the pressure will get to her. She's been a bit inconsistent this season and is under enormous pressure in South Korea as a majority celebrity. She trains and lives in Toronto and is coached by former Olympic silver medallist Brian Orser. He's done a fantastic job bringing out the best in Yu-Na and letting her personality and artistic side flourish. Yu-Na is an amazing skater with the whole package, but like everyone, she needs to do it when it counts.
Note: NBC insists on calling her "Kim Yu-Na" because in Korea they say the last name first. I find it insanely annoying. I mean, when Brian Orser talks about her, he calls her "Yu-Na" because that's her name. I know different countries have a different way of doing things, but it's so jarring to hear it in English because that's not how anyone in the skating world refers to her. Anyway, it drives me batty, but just so you know if you hear her name reversed, it's just NBC knocking themselves out trying to be culturally sensitive.
Mao Asada, Japan
This season has been largely disastrous for Mao. Didn't make the Grand Prix Final, but she did rally to win Japanese Nationals, which is a tough task, especially for the women. Her coach is Russian Tatiana Tarasova, and I (as well as much of the skating world) think the two are totally mismatched. Mao is a bright and lively girl, and her free skate is a Russian dirge. I think she should have left Tarasova after last season didn't go well, but she stayed with her.
Mao is a former World Champion, but has lost so much momentum the last two seasons. She's a lovely skater, but I think her confidence is sorely lacking right now. She's one of the few women in history who can do a triple Axel, and she apparently has three planned for Vancouver. The problem is that, much like the quad with the men, Mao's triple Axel can completely overwhelm the rest of her program. I think there is way too much risk without enough reward, and that she should be focusing on the whole package and not one jump. I've really felt sorry for her this season and I don't think she's getting good guidance. But we'll see how it goes.
Joannie Rochette, Canada
Joannie is the reigning World silver medallist. She has the complete package, but consistency has plagued her this season. If she skates her best, she should definitely be on the podium. But will she? It makes me nervous just thinking about it! She has the jumps, spins, choreography and everything she needs. For Joannie, it's all between the ears. I mean, it is for everyone, but she needs to put two good performances back to back for the first time this season. She's under intense pressure to medal in Canada, and I'm hoping she can handle it.
Miki Ando, Japan
Miki is a former World Champion and her forte is the jumps. She's never been my fave because there's not a lot of passion and artistry to her skating, IMO. She's a great jumper, though, and she certainly is a strong threat for the podium. She won the Grand Prix Final in December.
Akiko Suzuki, Japan
Akiko fought damn hard this season to make the Japanese team. Japan is so deep in the women that there are still two or three women who didn't make the team who would be podium contenders as well. Akiko was out of competition the past two years due to a very serious struggle with anorexia. She says that her love for skating is what helped her recover. She certainly has what it takes to medal, although I'd expect gold to be out of her reach.
Carolina Kostner, Italy
Honestly, I'll be shocked if Carolina can hold it together in Vancouver, but if she does, she could be a podium contender. She's had a largely terrible season, although she won Europeans recently. Still, it's not exactly a deep field over there for the women these days and she didn't skate clean. Carolina has medalled at Worlds before (as high as silver), but I think she's on the downward part of her career now. We shall see.
No Americans on this list for the first time in my memory! Anything is possible, but I don't expect Rachael Flatt or Mirai Nagasu to medal in Vancouver. Rachael is a great jumper, but the rest of her skating leaves me cold. Mirai definitely has potential for the future, but she cheats too many jumps right now. For either to be on the podium there would have to be a big meltdown from some of the ladies on this list. It's possible, but very unlikely.
Pairs
Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao, China
After two years of retirement and getting married, they're back and still as amazing as ever. Two-time Olympic bronze medallists and three-time World Champions, they are the sentimental favourites to win. Not to mention they're up there on the list of all-time greats. I really, really want them to get that elusive gold, and I think they will if they skate their best. They're probably the oldest contenders on this entire list at 31 and 36. I'm rooting hard for them!
Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy, Germany
Two-time World Champions, this team has explosive throws and have always been unique. You might have noticed the clown makeup and attire in the first picture, which is for their short program this season, set to -- wait for it -- "Send in the Clowns." Now, this isn't ice dance, and I wish they'd lose the make-up, but I have to give them credit for always going their own way and being different. That program is beautifully choreographed and if they skate it well, you won't care what they're wearing.
Their free skate is a more traditional program to "Out of Africa" and it's lovely. If they're on, they will be very hard to beat. I think it'll be very close between then and S/Z if both do their best. I give the edge to the Chinese, but just.
Qing Pang and Jian Tong, China
Pang and Tong have come so far with their artistry and are much more well-rounded than they were a few years ago when they won the World Championship. They have a great free skate to "The Impossible Dream" and if they skate well, are serious contenders. Watch for their twists and throws, which are huuuuge.
Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov, Russia
I honestly never thought I'd see the day a non-Russian skated for Russia. Yuko is Japanese and attained her Russian citizenship last year. She even Russianed up her name, which was formerly "Kawaguchi." I can't stand this team. Probably because they can't stand each other and it's painfully obvious. There's such a lack of chemistry between them and I've never liked watching them skate. Kurt Browning (as a commentator) told an anecdote on CBC earlier this season about touring with K/S in the summer and how after every single performance, Yuko ripped Alexander a new one on things he had to improve.
The euphemism used is that she "wears the pants" in the partnership. When she dislocated her shoulder on a throw earlier this season, Alexander could barely muster up any concern. (I will give her credit for being tough, though -- she finished the routine! How she did any lifts with her shoulder out of joint is beyond me.) I just find them totally lacking in the magic that makes pairs skating special. Meh.
Maria Mukhortova and Maxim Trankov, Russia
And the meh continues. As does the hate! This is another team that can't stand each other. At Skate Canada, Kurt Browning and Tracy Wilson were marvelling at the fact that Maria can train hours a day with Maxim and never once look him in the eye or talk to him (as evidenced at practice sessions that week). She talks only to their coach. They're hilariously skating to "Love Story" for their free skate, and if only there was an ounce of love there! I have no idea what happened between them, but again, that magic is missing. But I'm sure they're working on that, so it might have improved. Although when you have a pair who never look each other in the eye, it's hard to have much chemistry!
However, this team is really strong technically and have had a great season. They were second to K/S at Russian Nationals, and from what I understand there's no love lost between the teams either. Gosh, doesn't pairs skating in Russia sound fun?
Jessica Dube and Bryce Davison, Canada
Okay, back to the magical pairs skating that I love. You might remember reading about Jessica and Bryce in my LJ when Jessica's face was sliced by Bryce's skate. She fully recovered and they won bronze at Worlds in 2008. However, last season wasn't good. They had a bad break-up off the ice and their skating really suffered. All that chemistry they had was missing (understandably). But they went to therapy and really worked on their partnership and now they're back in excellent shape.
Their long program is to "The Way We Were" and it was evident at Canadian Nationals that they've regained their friendship and affection for each other. I was in tears at the end of their free skate seeing them hug each other so tightly. I've heard that they're back together off the ice as well, so who knows! At the very least I'm so happy they're friends again.
If they skate their best, the podium is within reach, but with so many good teams, it will be very hard to get there. I just want them to be happy with their performances. I love this team so much.
Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang, China
If you watched the last Olympics, you surely remember Dan's fall on the throw quad attempt. They went on to win the silver, and have medalled at Worlds, but really have never lived up to their potential. They're so up and down, and I'll be very surprised if they medal in Vancouver. It's certainly possible, but improbable if the other teams skate well.
I've always hoped to see more from the Zhangs, and Hao in particular has a really outgoing and appealing personality. But they've been eclipsed by Pang and Tong and certainly by the return of Shen and Zhao.
Ice Dance
For the first time in history, North America is actually the strongest region in this discipline! Will wonders never cease. I just hope that the judging is honest and we get a fair result. I think the future of ice dance at the Olympics really depends on it.
Meryl Davis and Charlie White, USA
This has been Meryl and Charlie's season. Although they've never won a world medal yet, they're the leading team internationally and they beat Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto for their second US title (B/A were out last year with an injury). The theme for the Original Dance this year is a folk dance, and they're doing a great Indian/Bollywood dance. Their free skate is to the aforementioned overused "Phantom of the Opera" (and I actually like the music, I'm just so sick of it in skating), but it's a masterpiece. They are the reigning Grand Prix Final Champions.
Meryl and Charlie have been together since they were small children and train with Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir in Canton, Michigan. The two teams are neck and neck, but have somehow stayed great friends through it all.
Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, Canada
No one brings romance to the ice like Tessa and Scott. Skating together since she was seven and he nine, they're BFF and have gorgeous chemistry together even though they're not a couple off the ice. They've had a meteoric rise up the ice dance ranks. She's now 19 and he's 21, and they are, in my opinion, the best ice dance team in the world. Not only that, they'll be ranked among the greats in history. They won the World silver medal their second year in senior competition, which is absolutely unheard of in ice dance. They won the bronze last year even after a truncated season.
I want them to win so badly that I'm going to be a nervous wreck. More than anything I want them to skate their best. As I mentioned, they were off much of last season because Tessa had to have painful surgery on both her shins due to a condition called compartment syndrome. But they're 100% healthy now.
Tessa and Scott are only a hair behind Meryl and Charlie in points this season, and it's going to be v.v. close. Meryl and Charlie have the dramatic Phantom program, and Tessa and Scott are soft and romantic. I guess we'll see which the judges like best.
Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto, USA
Olympic silver medallists in 2006 and have won several World medals -- but not the elusive gold. Tanith and Ben have lost momentum the past few seasons. They used to train with Davis/White and Virtue/Moir in Michigan, but left two years ago after a fifth place finish at Worlds (Tanith fell in the Compulsories). I quite like Tanith and Ben, but I don't love them. Their "Ave Maria" free skate is pretty, but they're number three in my books.
I think it would be totally awesome if these three teams took the podium. Not only because they're North American and that would make history, but because they're all pals. Here's a fun picture from when they all trained together (along with another team, but I'm not sure who they are):
Cute! Go, North America!
Oksana Domnina and Maxim Shabalin, Russia
You're probably asking yourself WTF they're wearing in that picture, and the answer is their version of Australian Aborigine costumes. Maxim even has dark foundation on his face. (!) Few people outside Russia have responded positively to this program, least of all the Aborigines. I just read that they're keeping the programs but changing the costumes, and I'm assuming the blackface will also be going. I mean, honestly.
I can't stand this team. They won Worlds last year and didn't deserve it one bit. They're totally overmarked and always have been. They've been out most of this season with Maxim's knee troubles, and if they are on that podium in Vancouver I will be calling foul. FOUL.
Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder, France
World Champions in 2008. Isabelle just had a baby in the fall, and the Olympics will be their first competition all year. That doesn't bode well for them, but if they're well trained, they certainly could be on the podium. They're very good, and I certainly like them better than the Russians, which is something.
Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski, Russia
Definite long shots in Vancouver. Surprise, I don't really care for this team. But lest you think I just automatically hate Russians, I've loved many, many Russian skaters in the past (Alexi Yagudin, Gordeeva/Grinkov, Irina Slutskaya, etc.)! I'm just meh on the current batch.
So there you have it. I love talking skating (as if you couldn't tell if you actually read this whole post!) so do comment if you have any questions or differences of opinion or squee or whathaveyou.