If you're like most people, you only pay attention to figure skating every four years. However, I am not like most people. So one of my friends asked me to write up some Cliff's Notes for her so she'd know who to watch next week and I figured since this took a long time to write out, I might as well post my thoughts (along with some visual aids) here in case any of you are interested. Obviously this will be a biased account of the contenders and YMMV in regards to some of the skaters.
First off, a quick word on the new scoring system. After the judging debacle in Salt Lake City in the pairs competition, the brouhaha thankfully resulted in a new scoring system being put into place. In a nutshell, instead of taking deductions off a perfect 6.0 for mistakes the skaters make or things they don't do very well, the new system just adds up points for the things the skaters do. Also, in the old system, the important thing was the ordinal -- where a judge placed a skater in relation to his or her competitors. In the new system, whomever has the most cumulative points (from qualifying, the short program, and the long progam) wins. Period. High and low scores are also thrown out. The new system isn't perfect (and has its detractors), but IMO it's much better than the old as it rewards overall quality of skating, not just how many jumps you can do and how good your reputation is. I've found since the new system has been in effect there has been much less propping up of favourite skaters by the judges.
Okay, onto the skaters:
Note: In the men's competition, being able to do a quadruple jump (a "quad") is a v.v. big thing. Some of the top contenders have still been able to do very well without one, but it will be key in Torino.
Evgeni Plushenko, Russia
The only person who can stop Plushenko from winning the gold is Plushenko. If he skates his best, he cannot be beaten. If he falters, it could be a different story. Often a person's feelings about Plushenko are influenced by whether or not they were an
Alexei Yagudin fan. Basically, Plushenko was the evil stepsister to Yagudin's Cinderella. They grew up together skating under the same coach (Alexei Mishin) who picked Plushenko as his favourite and treated Yagudin like something stuck to the bottom of his shoe. In his late teens, after winning Worlds and realizing that Mishin still wouldn't treat him fairly, Yagudin went to the States, got a new coach and beat Plushenko for Olympic gold in SLC. There is no love lost between the two skaters and it was a real shame that Yagudin had to retire because of a chronic hip injury. He remains the only skater who can really challenge Plushenko.
So anyway, Plushenko has never been a favourite of mine, since I remain Yagudin's bitch to this day. Plushenko's style just never grabbed me, but I cannot deny that he is very gifted (he also has the quad) and the best of the field. But I'd love someone to prove me wrong and beat him for gold!
Stephane Lambiel, Switzerland
The most important thing to know about Lambiel is that he's v.v. cute. He's also a v.v. good skater and has a quad, which will most likely be vital. He's a very sweet boy and is the current world champion (Plushenko was out with an injury). He should medal and is the best contender to challenge Plushenko. My only complaint about Lambiel is his cracked-out long program costume (seen above). How Vivaldi's "The Four Seasons" is represented by neon and zebra print is beyond me. But clearly, I quibble. Lambiel's great.
Jeffrey Buttle, Canada
Naturally, Buttle is my favourite. I love him to death and if I could somehow will him the ability to do the quad in the long program, I would. He's gracious and sweet and a beautiful skater. His only weakness is his inability to do the quad in competition, and I'm just praying that it will be there when it counts in Torino. He is current world silver medallist and his greatest strength is his high scores on the second mark -- program components. His programs are carefully choreographed to take advantage of the new system and every edge and spin are done beautifully. (*knocks on wood*) I'm going to be nauseous watching him compete because I want him to do well so badly.
Johnny Weir, United States
My second fave. I adore Weir, as he is adorable. Aside from being cute as a button, Weir is most entertaining in that everything that
pops into his head comes out of his mouth. They should sell tickets to his press conferences. Weir had a rocky start to the season and wears his heart on his sleeve -- after hurting his ankle at Skate Canada he openly wept in the Kiss and Cry. He is a longtime Russianophile (is there a real word for that?) and has a very Russian style of skating. He doesn't have the quad, which will be a problem. Weir has named the red glove he wears in the short program (above) "Camille." Seriously, how can you not love him? Also, please take note of all the different euphemisms the commentators will use to describe him without saying the word "gay." It should be a drinking game.
Emanuel Sandhu, Canada
Sigh. Sandhu has the talent (and the quad) to medal, but he has proven frustratingly inconsistent over the years and can rarely do it when it counts. He can also be a bitchy Diva, but if he skates well, I'll certainly be cheering for him. His long program is very original and I like his style.
Brian Joubert, France
Joubert once looked very promising but has been a disappointment to me. I think both his programs this year are lacklustre, particually the "Lord of the Dance" long program. As much as Joubert would like to be the second coming of Yagudin, he doesn't have the footwork skill to be attempting any sort of Irish dance-inspired program. And his costumes! You're probably thinking, Wait, is that...The Matrix?? Why yes, it is. *headdesk* Joubert is a vocal opponent of the new program because he's pissy about being beaten by skaters without quads this season. However, a quad isn't everything and Joubert's programs are very lacking. And if he misses the quad, forget about it -- he's out of contention.
Daisuke Takahashi, Japan
Great young skater who has made quite a splash this season. A pleasure to watch and will most likely be a medal winner one day, but probably not this year. (But anything is possible!) Japan only had one spot for men at the Olympics this year and initially Takahashi's younger opponent won, but then a mistake was found in the scoring and Takahashi got his ticket to Torino in dramatic fashion. I'm hoping he skates well, I really like him.
Evan Lysacek, United States
Current world bronze medallist. Will have a tough time to make the podium in Torino, but he's a great skater and I wish him all the best. His long program is set to "Carmen," because it just wouldn't be the Olympics without someone doing it.
You might be wondering what happened to the U.S.'s Timothy Goebel, the bronze-medal winner in SLC. Sadly, Tim was plagued by injuries and inconsistency the past few years and although he tried, he has never been able to get to that level of skating again. He retired after U.S. nationals this year, saying that he'd wasted four years of his life. It was a real shame.
This is the field that in my opinion has the biggest chance for an upset (just ask Sarah Hughes).
Irina Slutskaya, Russia
The current world champ and favourite going in. Wonderful skater, full of life and a very nice girl. A serious heart condition sidelined her a couple of years ago but last season she made a triumphant return, winning the world title in front of a home crowd in Moscow in emotional and dramatic fashion. I cried for her, it was so wonderful to see her back on top.
Sasha Cohen, United States
Elegant, extremely flexible and talented enough to win gold. Only question mark is her consistency -- she tends to unravel a bit in the long program. Let's hope she keeps it together and stays on the podium. I'd be delighted to see her win and prove the naysayers wrong.
Shizuka Arakawa, Japan
Lovely skater who was world champ a couple of years back. Will probably not be able to challenge Cohen or Slutskaya for gold, but you never know. Has a great chance of being on the podium, but has to control her nerves.
Fumie Suguri
Another of the very strong Japanese women (Miki Ando is the third teammate). Definitely a risk to medal and is the current Japanese champion. She was 5th in SLC. Beautiful skater and I hope she does well.
*A note about another Japanese skater, Mao Asada. Asada beat Slutskaya at the Grand Prix final and has landed triple axels in competition (unusual for women). However, Asada is only 15 and too young to compete. If she could, she would surely be a gold-medal contender. Watch for her in the future.
Carolina Kostner, Italy
With the Olympics in her home country, the pressure on Kostner will be intense. She is the current world bronze medallist and is definitely capable of making the podium in Torino. The big question mark will be whether she can keep it together or not. She has a lovely presence on the ice and I'm just hoping she skates well and doesn't have a bad experience.
Joannie Rochette, Canada
Probably won't be in medal contention, but if she skates her best she certainly could be. She's got the grace, the jumps and the choreography to land on the podium, but she's still a relative newcomer. Again, I'm just hoping she skates well and is happy with herself.
Michelle Kwan
Has only skated under the new scoring system once at last year's worlds where she came in fourth. Was injured much of this season but successfully petitioned to be included on the U.S. team after missing nationals with a groin injury. Undoubtedly one of the all-time greats and she will receive a metric crapload of media attention at the games. But I'd be surprised if she medals, it's unlikely. Of course, anything can happen, but her chances of winning gold are v.v. slim.
Tatiana Totmianina and Maxim Marinin, Russia
Definitely the favourites going in and will most likely win. They're very good skaters, but aren't in the Great category like Sale and Pelletier or Berezhnaya and Sikharulidze. They've always just left me a bit cold. The team has that Russian consistency and they are unlikely to falter. They are perhaps most famous for a terrible fall on a lift at Skate America in 2004. You can read about it
here and see a video if you aren't squeamish about people plunging to the ice. Thankfully Tatiana made a full recovery and they won Worlds at the end of the season.
Maria Petrova and Alexei Tikhonov, Russia
Yes, they're still around. There's nothing wrong with this team, but I have never been a fan. They were world champions a few years back when there was a weak field, and while they are technically proficient and I'm sure really nice people and all, they're second rate.
Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy, Germany
By far my favourite new team, they are a breath of fresh air in the pairs competition. Aliona is originally Ukrainian, but couldn't find a suitable partner. She actually met Robin on the internet (Go Team Internet!) and moved to Germany to train with him. They are (I think) 3-time German champs now and Aliona just got her citizenship by the skin of her teeth so she can compete in Torino. They have had a great season, beating Petrova and Tikhonov at Skate Canada for gold and coming in third at the Grand Prix. I'm really rooting for them!
Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang, China
This high-flying team has the best throws and twists in the world and will definitely contend for a medal. What they don't have is strong artistry, but hopefully that will come in time. However in Torino if everyone skates well, their lower second marks could keep them off the podium. But they were second at the Grand Prix, so anything is possible.
Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao, China
Former world champions, they have been out all season due to Hongbo's achilles tendon injury. It will be a miracle if they win in Torino, but it would make me ridiculously happy. They're a wonderful team who has worked so hard over the years and if anything, I just hope they skate well. This will most likely be their last season, I would think.
I totally stopped paying attention to ice dance after Bourne and Kraatz retired, so I can't even tell you who the number-one team is. I know they're Russian (shocker!) and I'm sure they're lovely but on the whole, ice dance bores even me. There are really only two ice dance teams I'm going to check out.
Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto, United States
Tanith was moved to the U.S. from Canada at age 14 to train with Ben and just got her citizenship in the nick of time. They are the current world silver medallists and will definitely contend for a medal. Tanith and Ben are great skaters and have a really refreshing (read: non-European) style. I'm rooting for them.
Marie-France Dubreil and Patrice Lauzon, Canada
Beautiful couple who are totally in love with each other and are a pleasure to watch. I doubt they'll be able to medal unless someone else slips up, but I hope they skate very well and end their career on a high note.
Well there you have it. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts and if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask! As you can see, I can talk about skating a lot.