ECRI Recession Call 2012

5 Days Left...Are we in a new recession, as ECRI has forecast would be the case by the end of this month ( Read more... )

From DShort.com
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Declines Again

The next chart highlights the -0.7 level. The latest Chicago Fed release explains:

"When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above -0. ( Read more... )

In a sign of at least temporary softening in the national economy, possibly directly related to a series of winter storms, the CFNAI reversed direction last month.
CFNAI Current Data


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Timely and excellent post by Invictus over at The Big Picture yesterday

For whatever it's worth, I think I agree very strongly with everything Invictus points out. In fact, one of the main reasons why I think it would be reasonable for NBER to peg some month in Q3 2009 as the end of the recession is because of the competence of the CFNAI (see at ( Read more... )

While the organization tasked with officially determining the beginning and end dates of recessions in the United States, the NBER, has yet to formally announce, as they typically do not do so until at least six to twelve months after one begins or ends, most economists believe the recession ended either last June, July or August. However, the ( Read more... )

The fairly reliable national coincident index CFNAI, climbed appreciably in November from October, further bolstering the argument that the US is in the early phases of economic recovery. Still, the 3 Month Moving Average, or CFNAI-MA3, remained stuck on the soft side last month at -0.77, which shows that if another leg down were to occur in the ( Read more... )

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, or NAI, "is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend ( Read more... )

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, a composite of 85 national coincident indicators, actually slid back further into sub-zero territory, after a pretty substantial move up to less negative territory in July. Still, a reading below zero in the CFNAI does not inherently relate to negative Gross Domestic Product, but does strongly correlate ( Read more... )

We've already known that by a complete basket of economic indicators (a basket far beyond just G.D.P., which is subject to massive revisions years later, and thus is never actually the indicator to watch, despite so much hype by mass media and financial press) the current recession has been the deepest since the dismantling that occurred when World ( Read more... )