Here in the US we have an official "arbiter" of business cycle turning points, the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research). For many decades this elite group of economic eggheads have been charged with this responsibility, and for better or worse, the nation accepts their conclusions as the final say.

Generally speaking, the NBER determines that ( Read more... )

Yes, they all have as firm a grip on reality as ever:

Economic Times
US economists boost 2008 GDP forecast
-Blue Chip Agencies
Sep 10, 2008WASHINGTON: A sharp upward revision in U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2008 prompted economists to ratchet up their forecasts for growth for the whole year, a survey released on ( Read more... )

I have chosen to embed this chart of estimated monthly US GDP in reference to the last post, in which I ask in a poll: "Most recession indicators have yet to return to their pre-2008 "peaks." If a new recession starts now, what is this 2007- TBD funk?".

What I meant by that question is simply most of the key economic indicators of expansion/ ( Read more... )

Markets & respected economists are now ratcheting up their concern that the US, if not  world economy, is falling into a new recession.

~Excerpts/Recommended Reading from August 2, 2011~

CNBC
Dow Logs 8-Day Loss, S&P Negative for Year

Stocks sold off sharply to end at session lows Tuesday with the Dow down for an eighth day amid economic worries and ( Read more... )

Bloomberg
Why One Economist Predicts Slow Growth

Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern University belongs to the committee of distinguished economists who officially declared on Sept. 20 that the U.S. recession ended way back in June 2009. Don't mistake that pronouncement for optimism. According to Gordon's research into the long-term determinants of ( Read more... )

Look closely at the graph below and you will notice that the NBER's conclusion that the national recession ended in June of last year just simply does not line up in any fashion with the way state coincident indexes looked at the end of previous recessions.

At the end of previous recessions, at the very least, 18 or so states were growing. And that ( Read more... )

CNN Money:
Recession officially ended

in June 2009

( Read more... )

We will probably know by the end of this year if the Great Recession ended sometime in the middle of last year, or if it will go down in the books as actually running from Dec. 2007 through at least the end of 2010 (and making it officially by far the longest recession since the early 1930s).

With the benchmark revisions to GDP just released, it is ( Read more... )

Many economists have been quoted recently by the mainstream media as claiming that in US economic history, this country has no record of falling back in to recession after three or four consecutive quarters of positive quarter-over-quarter GDP.

But a simple look at the history of recessions tells a potentially different tale.

While it is not clear ( Read more... )

Meant to get this posted several days ago. Better late than never.

For the most part, the voting members of the Egg Heads Society have concluded that the recession which began in 2007 likely ended sometime in the second or third quarter of 2009, but they are not yet positive, and so will wait a little longer for more data to come in before making ( Read more... )