Monthly CF National Activity Index Up Sharply In Nov.
The fairly reliable national coincident index CFNAI, climbed appreciably in November from October, further bolstering the argument that the US is in the early phases of economic recovery. Still, the 3 Month Moving Average, or CFNAI-MA3, remained stuck on the soft side last month at -0.77, which shows that if another leg down were to occur in the economy at this time it would be definitely be considered an extension of the 2007 recession, rather than a new recession.
From the Chicago Fed:
Led by improvements in production-related and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to -0.32 in November, up sharply from -1.02 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved, although only the production and income category made a positive contribution.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -0.77 in November from -0.87 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The level of activity, however, remained in a range that has historically been consistent with the early stages of a recovery following a recession.
...Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.35 to the index in November, compared with -0.09 in October. This contribution accounted for much of the improvement in the index in November. Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November after being unchanged in October; and manufacturing production increased 1.1 percent in November after decreasing 0.2 percent in the previous month. Furthermore, manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 68.4 percent in November from 67.6 percent in October.
Employment-related indicators made a contribution of -0.12 to the index in November, up from -0.42 in October. Initial unemployment insurance claims in November declined to their lowest level during the past year; and the unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November from 10.2 percent in the previous month. In addition, payroll employment decreased by 11,000 in November after declining by 111,000 in October; and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing increased to 40.4 in November from 40.1 in the previous month.
From the Chicago Fed:
Led by improvements in production-related and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to -0.32 in November, up sharply from -1.02 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved, although only the production and income category made a positive contribution.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -0.77 in November from -0.87 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The level of activity, however, remained in a range that has historically been consistent with the early stages of a recovery following a recession.
...Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.35 to the index in November, compared with -0.09 in October. This contribution accounted for much of the improvement in the index in November. Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November after being unchanged in October; and manufacturing production increased 1.1 percent in November after decreasing 0.2 percent in the previous month. Furthermore, manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 68.4 percent in November from 67.6 percent in October.
Employment-related indicators made a contribution of -0.12 to the index in November, up from -0.42 in October. Initial unemployment insurance claims in November declined to their lowest level during the past year; and the unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November from 10.2 percent in the previous month. In addition, payroll employment decreased by 11,000 in November after declining by 111,000 in October; and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing increased to 40.4 in November from 40.1 in the previous month.