Republican Gas Conspiracy 2008

[tongodeon]

Remember the Republican Gas Conspiracy? Well it's election season again. Earlier this summer I predicted that gas prices would drop 17% before election day because gas prices always drop 17% between August and early October. This summer, gas peaked at a nationwide price of $4.10 before declining to $2.83 - a 30.9% decrease. Maybe the near-

Comments

[wisn]

The drop in oil prices is in part because of the strengthening dollar. The dollar wasn't doing as well against the Euro four years ago.

thank you!!!

[drieuxster]

What folks may want to ask themselves is why, if the dollar is strengthening, and the Price Per Barrel moves with it, that the real concern is what is it that is keeping the Dollar Up? even IF the DOW is tanking, and there is no real relief in the American Treasuries!!!

[hugh_mannity]

I haven't noticed this as an annual, or even just major election year, feature.

These are the average prices I've paid for gas ocer the past 6 years. (South Suburban Metro Boston area, with occasional field trips to upstate NY, NH, CT and PA)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
January $1.48 $1.57 1.799 2.319 2.191 $2.899
February $1.63 $1.63 $1.87 2.189 2.159 $2.946
March $1.65 $1.67 $1.99 2.266 $2.494 $3.063
April $1.59 $1.66 $2.12 2.706 2.727 $3.267
May $1.48 $1.98 $2.13 2.927 $2.929 $3.772
June $1.49 $2.04 $2.09 2.932 2.992 $3.999
July $1.46 $1.93 $2.30 2.987 2.872 $4.023
August $1.62 $1.90 $2.63 2.965 2.746 $3.777
September $1.65 $1.84 $2.94 2.472 2.572 $3.449
October $1.60 $1.98 $2.64 2.102 2.609 $2.997
November $1.50 $1.97 $2.02 2.119 2.919
December $1.45 $1.85 $2.10 2.284 2.969

There has been a precipitous drop this year. The price I've been paying has dropped $.70 in the past 6 or 7 weeks.

Currently it's $2.719 at the local gas war stations.

[avocado_tom]

A good part of the drop is falling demand due to the economy going apeshit: People are getting laid off and therefore aren't driving their X miles to work everyday, people can't afford gas so they aren't driving as much, people can't afford to go on vacation, so they're not using gasoline...

But that's just me guessing what's going on...

The numbers you're looking for are here:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html

And maybe specifically here:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mg_tco_usw.htm (prices)

and here:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mgfupus1m.htm (consumption)

The last link shows that demand is down about 9% from this time last year.

[avocado_tom]

And what I meant to say was:

"A good part of the drop is due to demand destruction caused by the economy going apeshit..."

[tongodeon]

The worst thing about that ad is that it's totally disingenuous.

"Why do you support gay marriage?"
"I'm not good at arguments. Just look at this website and then I'll talk to you."

Fine, I've looked at the website. Where do I find that bitch? I've got some questions to ask her.

Re: Oil futures

[drieuxster]

Then what is the apparent drop in the Euro against the Dollar at about the same time, if there is not a tie back between the price per barrel and the dollar contracts?