George Bush, Republicans and their friends do not appear to be manipulating oil prices
Gas prices have gone down 17% recently, from $3.15 on August 1 to $2.67 today. I've heard and read several opinions that Bush is manipulating gas prices to increase Republican popularity for the midterm election, and supposedly 42% of Americans think Bush controls oil prices.
On one hand I can't rule it out entirely. It's possible, I suppose, that Republican sympathizers in the oil industry are manipulating oil prices. On the other hand correlation is not causation. America consumes 26% of the world's oil, which is traded on an open global market, and per-barrel prices have declined 22% from $75/barrel on August 1 to $61.5 today. Prices dropped 27% with no election last year, from $70 to $55/barrel, although some of that was recovery from the gulf coast refinery shutdown shock. This table shows a price drop in Europe this fall as well - roughly 5-15% although I can't figure out exactly since it doesn't break the data down into days.
I can think of three non-George-Bush reasons why gas dropped 15% recently:
Of course beyond production, market, and seasonal influences it's also possible that part of the decrease is due to some as-yet-unspecified partisan market manipulation, but I remain unpersuaded. Does anyone have an actual argument in favor of this conspiracy beyond "it's possible", "Bush, Cheney, and Condi are oilmen", and "prices + election = conspiracy"? I love conspiracy theories as much as anyone and my personal biases are quite strongly anti-Republican, but I just can't sign onto this one. Until someone comes up with better support, if you'd like to avoid making me roll my eyes at your straw man agreement please qualify your conspiratorial allegations appropriately:
"Gas prices have dropped 17% recently, X% of which can be explained by production, market, and seasonal factors leaving Y% as the product of an evil Republican market-manipulating conspiracy."
On one hand I can't rule it out entirely. It's possible, I suppose, that Republican sympathizers in the oil industry are manipulating oil prices. On the other hand correlation is not causation. America consumes 26% of the world's oil, which is traded on an open global market, and per-barrel prices have declined 22% from $75/barrel on August 1 to $61.5 today. Prices dropped 27% with no election last year, from $70 to $55/barrel, although some of that was recovery from the gulf coast refinery shutdown shock. This table shows a price drop in Europe this fall as well - roughly 5-15% although I can't figure out exactly since it doesn't break the data down into days.
I can think of three non-George-Bush reasons why gas dropped 15% recently:
- Demand drops after Labor Day when the summer driving season ends.
- Hurricanes didn't knock out refineries this year, and the bottom fell out of the futures market.
- Cleaner summer-blend gas is more expensive than cheaper winter-blend gas, and summer-blend production runs from June 1 to September 15.
Of course beyond production, market, and seasonal influences it's also possible that part of the decrease is due to some as-yet-unspecified partisan market manipulation, but I remain unpersuaded. Does anyone have an actual argument in favor of this conspiracy beyond "it's possible", "Bush, Cheney, and Condi are oilmen", and "prices + election = conspiracy"? I love conspiracy theories as much as anyone and my personal biases are quite strongly anti-Republican, but I just can't sign onto this one. Until someone comes up with better support, if you'd like to avoid making me roll my eyes at your straw man agreement please qualify your conspiratorial allegations appropriately:
"Gas prices have dropped 17% recently, X% of which can be explained by production, market, and seasonal factors leaving Y% as the product of an evil Republican market-manipulating conspiracy."