ЛУСИ: ДВА ГОДА ГРЯЗИ ИЛИ СНОВА САМОЕ-САМОЕ… (Вулканы-7)
Индонезии не привыкать быть самой-самой. Самая сейсмически активная зона планеты, самый большой архипелаг мира, зона максимального биологического разнообразия… И, конечно, мировой рекордсмен по числу и активности вулканов. Самых разных… В том числе таких:
То, что вы видите на снимке выше - зона самого большого в мировой истории бедствия, вызванного грязевым вулканом (КАРТА). По названию близлежащего восточнояванского города Сидоарджо его сокращенно называют ЛУСИ (LUmpur - «грязь» - SIdoarjo).
Но, кроме его размеров, в нем нет ничего удивительного. Ведь, в принципе, вся Ява - это один очень большой вулкан.
Highlights: The Largest Mud Volcano Disaster in the World
А очень большая часть Восточной Явы - один большой грязевой вулкан. Где маленькие грязевые вулканчики порой можно найти прямо в жилых домах… Да и как может быть иначе при такой вулканической активности, когда в зонах разломов тысячелетиями «утягиваются» под землю огромные массы буквально сочащихся водой пород?
Эта история началась чуть более двух лет назад - 29 мая 2006 года - через два дня после сильного землетрясения на Центральной Яве. Последнее крайне осложнило вопрос о том, чем же является последовавшее вскоре извержение: стихийным бедствием, следствием нарушения норм при бурении в ходе нефетеразведки или же комбинацией этих двух…
(Я не буду углубляться здесь во все перипетии разбирательств, поскольку в свое время специально посвятил этому статью для региональных СМИ, текст которой на английском - в самом конце) .
Скажу лишь вкратце: суд признал ЛУСИ стихийным бедствием, и у меня нет оснований говорить о чем-то ином, пусть даже прорыв грязевого вулкана произошел близ скважины, пробуренной индонезийской компанией Лапиндо Брантас. А она контролировалась семейством самого богатого на этот момент (по данным журнала Globe Asia - 9,2 миллиарда долларов) человека Индонезии - министра-координатора по вопросам народного благосостояния Абуризала Бакри.
Конечно, велик соблазн обвинить влиятельнейшего деятеля в нажиме на суд, особенно потому, что слишком уж богатых не любят нигде. Но «после» не значит «вследствие», а наиболее серьезные (на мой взгляд) специалисты не считают скважину причиной начала извержения.
"Появление этого феномена предопределили уникальное геологическое строение восточной части Явы и современная активная тектоника, - говорил автору побывавший в зоне бедствия доцент кафедры геологии и геохимии горючих ископаемых геологического факультета МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова Григорий Ахманов. - Природой создан на глубине резервуар воды и газа пока трудно оценимого объема. Природа же запечатала его, и давит на него с огромной силой, создавая аномальные высокие внутренние давления внутри этого объема".
"Извержение на Восточной Яве могло быть инициировано как тектоническими подвижками, вскрывшими резервуар, так и бурением, - считает Ахманов. - Точно определить, является ли Лапиндо виновником трагедии, или же она сам пострадала в результате чудовищного совпадения, невозможно сейчас и не будет возможно никогда. На восточной Яве люди должны относиться к подобным явлениям спокойно и быть готовыми к ним. Такая геологическая обстановка".
Тем более, что президент Индонезии Сусмло Бамбанг Юдхойоно обязал «Лапиндо» выплатить пострадавшим свыше 420 миллионов долларов - вне зависимости от того, виновата ли компания.
(На одной из пресс-конференций в Джакарте Абуризал Бакри долго рассказывал о том, что Лапиндо добровольно делает для жертв. На что последовал вопрос западного коллеги: «А почему вы все это делаете, если вы не виноваты?»
«Вам это не понять, - ответил явно выведенный из терпения министр. - У нас так принято»…
Для меня - аргумент…)
Как бы то ни было, когда из одной из скважин 29 мая забила кипящая грязь, залегающая в этом районе в трех километрах под поверхностью земли, бурильщики попытались перекрыть ее, однако вокруг стали одна за другой образовываться трещины. Выбросы быстро достигли ежедневного объема десятки тысяч кубометров грязи и погребли под собой территорию в 25 квадратных километров, в том числе четыре соседние деревни и участок проходившего поблизости шоссе. Их жителей временно переселили в здание местного рынка, превращенное в лагерь для беженцев.
По словам посетившей пострадавший район министра здравоохранения Индонезии Сити Фадилы Супари, выбрасываемая из-под земли грязь не представляет угрозы для здоровья людей. Тем не менее, по сообщениям с Восточной Явы, в районе выбросов сразу были госпитализированы несколько сот человек, жалующихся на затрудненное дыхание и головокружения (ведь из-под земли выбрасывается не только грязь, но различные газы, а уж они точно не слишком полезны…)
Уже в августе выбросы подземной грязи прорвали наспех возведенную пятиметровую дамбу и нарушили железнодорожное сообщение. Грязь захлестнула даже районный штаб вооруженных сил.
В октябре грязь начали сбрасывать в протекающую поблизости реку Поронг, которая несет ее в море.
Тем самым власти сделали, наконец, окончательный выбор в вечной в перенаселенных районах дилемме: спасать людей или рыб?
Именно так сформулировал ее и министр общественных работ Джоко Кирманто, отвечая на недовольство решением властей защитников окружающей среды. "Если (спасать) рыб, то это означает, что будут затоплены новые деревни", - добавил он.
Множество попыток остановить выбросы - включая сброс в жерло, откуда бьет грязь, гигантских бетонных шаров, успеха не имели. А сейчас, по некоторым данным, ЛУСИ начал проваливаться под собственным весом, угрожая образовать гигантскую кальдеру. По данным специалистов Бандунгского технологического института, в ряде мест в центре затопленной территории уже возникают провалы глубиной до трех метров…
"Подобные неожиданные провалы могут говорить о начале формирования кальдеры - большой вулканической впадины», - говорится в заявлении БТИ, считающего, что ее глубина может составить до полутораста метров.
На этот момент площадь объявленной президентом Индонезии Сусило Бамбангом Юдхойоно непригодной для жизни людей зоны бедствия составляет уже около 640 гектар, в том числе 12 соседних деревень и около 20 заводов. Крова над головой лишились около 36 тысяч человек, которых придется куда-то переселять.
На этот момент на месте прорыва слой грязи уже превысил 15-метровую высоту и вся надежда на растущую сеть дамб, которую скапливающиеся миллионы кубометров выбросов то и дело прорывают.
"Сразу скажу, ничего подобного мы до этого не видели", - говорит Ахманов.
"Прорыв скопившихся под землей масс на поверхность в геологической временной шкале - дело ближайшего времени, в человеческой - сегодня, завтра, через десять, сто, может быть, тысячу лет, - рассказывает он. - Скоро, но неоценимо по сроку. Так работают природные грязевые вулканы и гейзеры".
А специалисты тем временем изучают возможность использования грязи в качестве сырья для производства косметических средств и кирпичей, источника энергии и даже… для разведения рыбы. Той самой, думать о спасении которой уже не приходится.
Но грязевые вулканы способны и приносить пользу. В частности, по данным западноевропейских ученых, расположенные на дне морей являются местом обитания открытых лишь десятилетие назад экзотических микробов, способных внести вклад в борьбу с глобальным потеплением.
Как отмечается в опубликованной Nature статье исследователей из германских и французских НИИ, изучавших расположенный на более чем километровой глубине грязевой вулкан Haakon Mosby на дне Баренцова моря, эти микробы поглощают огромные количества метана.
И если уже искусственно воспроизвести этот процесс еще в больших объемах…
А вот и статья о разборках:
Field Studies vs. "Internet Geology"
Two articles on Sidoardjo mud volcano published by The Jakarta Post quite recently ('Mudflow, bird flu pose dilemma for media' by Mr. Sirikit Syah in Surabaya, February 9 and 'A flood of bad news for honest Aburizal Bakrie Bakrie' by Mr. Kornelius Purba in Jakarta, February 10) represent two different views on two different aspects of LUSI mudflow: its causes and its coverage in Indonesian and international media. Such a discussion is long overdue, so it's a pity many aspects were left out in these two articles. But, of course, it was plain impossible to mention everything there.
Still, more reason to do it here. Especially after the International Workshop on Sidoarjo Mud Volcano held in Jakarta on February 20-21.
To call a spade a spade, the main point under discussion in Indonesia is as follows: is a company partially owned by a Cabinet minister's family automatically guilty of everything that happened during its drilling for gas? Or it is still necessary to prove its fault first. And would it suffice as a "proof" just to refer to a study "proposing" it's guilty?
"In every newsroom, - Mr. Sirikit writes, - it was politically incorrect to refer to the mudflow as a "mud volcano" or "natural disaster". The only politically correct attitude was to blame PT Lapindo. PT Lapindo was denied its right to reply".
So it's quite natural - and politically correct - for Mr. Purba to believe that "very few people accept his [Coordinationg Minister for the People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie] claim that the mud volcano was "purely a natural disaster".
What's really interesting here is that a writer close to Sidoarjo - i.e. the place the disaster is still happening - writes that media "could not even talk about the mudflow objectively and fairly". And a writer in Jakarta - i.e. the place where politics happen - concentrates mostly on what "many experts say" and who to believe.
The former is clearly still not sure about what was the cause of the disaster. But farther from Sidoarjo and closer to Jakarta the picture gets clearer.
Let's make the next step to see more closely who are the experts, mentioned by Mr. Purba, and how far from Sidoarjo they are…
Indonesian and world media has recently provided a lot of coverage to a study by a team led by Richard Davies, a professor at the University of Durham's Centre for Research into Earth Energy Systems in northeastern England. This study "Birth of a mud volcano: East Java, 29 May 2006" was published in the February issue of GSA Today, a journal of the Geological Society of America. Actually, this fact is an alarm bell in itself: why British magazines did not print it? Of course, it might have been just a coincidence, but it is still a reason to be more careful when reporting on it…
There's nothing wrong in studying a mud volcano in Indonesia from Durham, UK - after collecting necessary data. There's nothing wrong in reporting on such a study - after reading it through. But it seems that in this case both preconditions were not met.
One necessarily comes to such a conclusion because after really studying this 'study' some purely logical questions are just unavoidable, but nobody has bothered to ask them.
Although I'm not an expert in geology (an expert opinion would follow below) - quite often plain logic and careful reading would suffice.
First, one news agency in a story quite emphatically titled "Mud volcano 'caused by drilling'" writes that "the British experts analysed satellite images of the area to make their study". That proves the author of the story hasn't read the study. At all. Otherwise he would not have helped noticing the date the images were taken: "about 100 days after the eruption started". Can anybody explain me how an image taken (from space!) over three months after(!) an eruption can determine the reason of what has happened almost three thousand meters below the surface "about 100 days" before?
Besides, the study never said that "Mud volcano (was) 'caused by drilling'". It says, "it is very likely". A sea of difference…
The authors write: "It is reported by local villages that the water-mud mix on the surface had a temperature of 70-100 °C". Reported by whom? No reference. "Local villagers"? At the site of drilling? Running around with thermometers during the first days of the eruption? I wonder, what are their names… And I have certain difficulties believing they reported directly to Dr. R. Davies in Durham…
In Russia we call such "reports" OWS news agency. "One Woman Said…"
This is exactly the main problem of the study: not only its authors have not been within a thousand kilometer of LUSI, but they are also not using any reliable data on it! Their reference list doesn't show a single source even distantly related to LUSI. Two lonely references to Java were published in 1995 and 1985! Still, the authors are sure that "Lusi eruption supports the models proposed by these authors". Can they really be called fully objective observes after that?
During our meeting in Jakarta Dr. R. Davies (who was taking part in the seminar) insisted that the study by his team was based on "reliable" but "confidential" data. So confidential, that it just couldn't be mentioned in the reference.
He believes that criticism regarding the study has at least some ground, as the team was in a hurry to publish it as soon as possible. In such a hurry, that Dr. Davies didn't even request the data from P.T.Lapindo - and he quite willingly acknowledges it.
You know what? I just don't know how they do it in Durham, but in Moscow State University I have graduated from they would not have even agreed to begin discussing a graduate thesis based on "confidential data" that can not be referred to…
Let me introduce another expert who has been to LUSI and doesn't have his own previously published theories on mud volcanoes to prove. Dr. Grigorii G. Akhmanov form UNESCO/MSU Centre for Marine Geology, Department of Petroleum Geology, Faculty of Geology, Moscow State University (by the way, he was also taking part in the seminar in Jakarta). Hope, nobody believes Russia has any stake at LUSI so we may skip 'political correctness'.
Here is Dr. Akhmanov's comment upon the study published in GSA Today:
"It is clear for any reader that the authors have absolutely no data and nothing to discuss, except, maybe, their own ideas. A couple of nice-looking illustrations from their previous studies, not related to LUSI, and enviable pen craft provide the authors a good opportunity to refer to themselves. But their "study" adds nothing to the understanding of LUSI.
LUSI phenomenon is naturally prepared. You don’t have to be a geologist to understand it, looking at the power and scale of its manifestation. Pretty little geological knowledge is needed to realize that East Java basin is extremely favourable for LUSI-like things. The existence of old mud volcanoes within 20 km distance from LUSI illustrates that even for amateurs. Unfortunately, the authors do not know about Gunung Anyar, Kalang Anyar, Pulungan mud volcanoes located near LUSI. I guess, they were not mentioned in Internet reports on the eruption.
What triggered the whole thing is still a big question. If the company can be blamed, it is for triggering but not for causing. It is important to distinguish between these two words.
I don’t believe we will ever be able to reconstruct precisely what has happened then and there at several thousand meters depth. But most scientists knowing active tectonic setting of the region would name a number of other possible natural triggering scenarios besides a drilling accident.
Meanwhile, Dr. Davies' model explains how the last phase of drilling could initiate a propagating fracture to the surface only. His following explanation, why tectonic or hydraulic fracturing at the depth (let’s say, at the same interval as for drilling triggered model) can not allow same processes, is very questionable - to put it mildly. Probably, again because of lack of on-spot data.
And finally, if there is a reason to blame the company (and now we really can only blame it for drilling in a potentially dangerous place), I would recommend to stop immediately any exploration of all East Java basin where LUSI-like things apt to happen any place, any time (like they say it in tourist warnings). And even this will not protect the area 100% from mud volcanic activity. It is there already, as I have mentioned above.
From scientific point of view there is no doubt that LUSI is a unique opportunity to study eruption dynamics and the mechanisms triggering mud volcanism phenomena. This is the reason why we organized an extensive fieldwork in September 2006 that included mapping and sample collection and work with previously obtained geological data. This is why we completed analysis and spent time to interpret our results within a regional geological context. This is how science is done, without prejudice".
But Dr. Davies and his team prefer quite different and really innovative "scientific" approach: there is no need to do fieldwork or analysis of that dull on-spot data any more. All one needs is an Internet connection to surf from a press release to a story on local villagers measuring temperature of the mud. It’s an easy way to become famous - and fast. Especially when the conclusion is quite coincidentally "politically correct".
Now back to the coverage. It seems that it is already a tradition for Indonesian press to reprint stories by leading news agencies without reading them first. For example, this is the only explanation for the dubious pleasure of reading reprints of a story by one these agencies stating that Magellan came to Philippines after visiting Spice Islands. Because anybody at Ternate would tell you that Magellan's expedition arrived there without its leader - who was already killed by that time by Datu Lapu-Lapu in the battle of Maktan.
I'm mentioning it here as it vividly demonstrates how logic can quite frequently be of help. There is no need even to look at a map (any map!) of Magellan's circumnavigation. It is enough to recall that its target was to find a way to Spice Islands from the East - as from the West it was already blocked by the Portuguese. So it was plain impossible for Magellan to get to Ternate before Philippines…
Meanwhile Dr. Davies believes, that what he has heard in Jakarta confirms he and his team were right.
H-m-m… Let me quote only one title of only one paper presented (in English, as Dr. Davies probably couldn't understand the report presented in Bahasa Indonesia by an Indonesian geologists' team specially created to monitor LUSI, stating that "up to now we still don't know the reason"): "Earthquake, the Major Trigger of Mud Vulcanism at Sidoarjo" by two Japanese experts.
Summing up: the farther from the spot, the clearer the picture of what has happened. And the later is also the better. Or so it seems, as the best picture is received from space a hundred days after…
"The more we study, the more we learn. The more we learn, the more we know. The more we know, the more we forget. The more we forget, the less we know. So why study?"
And to hell with sources! To hell with facts! Who needs them at the age of Internet?
Or maybe it is still the duty of a reporter to check and double-check the things he's reporting about? Or at least to read them carefully and from beginning to end?
My conclusion may seem to some akin to blasphemy: what is "politically correct" may be true merely by a coincidence. And even then for a time being only. Simply because policies tend to change thus changing what is "politically correct". But the truth is - or, at least, should be, - permanent. That is why it is called the truth - as opposite to a lie.
Want another example of a "politically correct" statement being a lie? Easy - for a Russian, whose country clearly doesn't have a stake, say, at East Timor. Except for, maybe, being sorry for "witches" they are now burning there.
Can anybody explain me: if East Timor was and is ready for independence, as we being repeatedly told, why should I - a Russian - pay for policing her from my taxes? In the end the funds for the UN police to stay there indefinitely - or so it seems - are coming from member countries' payments… Meaning my taxes, too…
And yours.
UPD PARIS, France, July 21, 2013 (AFP) - Scientists on Sunday sparked a fresh debate over what triggered Indonesia's Lusi mud volcano, still spewing truckloads of slime more than seven years after it leapt catastrophically into life.
Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the study strengthens the argument by gas company PT Lapindo Brantas that the disaster was caused by a distant earthquake, not by its drilling crew as some experts contend.
Lusi, located in the Sidoarjo district of the island of Java, erupted on May 29, 2006 in the middle of a ricefield.
It has destroyed 13 villages, dozens of factories and shops and a highway, prompting the government to build dykes 10 metres (33 feet) high to try to contain its spread. Nearly 50,000 people were displaced.
The new research, by a team led by Stephen Miller at the University of Bonn in Germany, suggests the eruption was caused by the 6.3-magnitude earthquake that occurred two days earlier near Yogyakarta.
"We conclude that the Lusi mud eruption was a natural occurrence," they write.
Even though the two events were some 250 kilometres (125 miles) apart, the rock formation at Sidoarjo has a shape and structure that acted rather like a lens, amplifying and focussing the wave of seismic energy from Yogyakarta, according to their computer model.
The jolt of energy would have liquefied the source of the mud, causing it to be injected into a fault connected with a deep hydrothermal system. This superheated blowout feeds the eruption today, goes their theory.
Asked to comment on the study, British geologist Richard Davies pointed to the daily drilling reports from the Lapindo Brantas team at Sidoarjo.
It showed their gas exploration was going awry, Davies said.
On the day of the eruption, the drillers acknowledged that they were having problems in stabilising pressure in the hole, a routine procedure that uses injected fluids, as they sought to withdrew their drillbit, he said.
That, and the lack of protective casing around the hole, "was like pulling the cork out of a champagne bottle," causing a "kick" of high-pressure mud to blow from the hole, Davies, a professor at Durham University, told AFP in a phone interview.
"When the Yogyakarta earthquake occurred, nothing happened in the well. The pressure in the well was already many orders of magnitude bigger than the pressure changes due to the Yogyakarta earthquake," Davies.
"They've come up with an elaborate geophysical model but I think they've ignored the more obvious data," said Davies said.
Seismologists have widely, but not unanimously, sided with his explanation. Some note that much larger earthquakes had previously occurred closer to Sidoarjo yet not caused any mud volcano.
At its peak, Lusi disgorged 180,000 cubic metres (6.4 million cubic feet) of mud a day.
Today, the rate has fallen to between 15,000 and 20,000 cu. m.(500,000 and 700,000 cu. ft.) per day, according to the government's Sidoarjo Mudflow Mitigation Agency, or BPLS.
This is roughly equivalent to between six and eight Olympic-sized swimming pools of muck per day.
Amein Widodo, a geologist from the Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology in nearby Surabaya city, said it was impossible to predict how long the volcano would keep erupting. "The amount of mud has reduced a lot, but having seen other cases in Java, it's possible it could erupt for more than 100 years," said Widodo.
All victims have received some compensation, some of them from the government and others from Lapindo Brantas, despite its claim of no wrongdoing. The company is part of a business empire controlled by Indonesia's powerful Bakrie family.
Around 5,000 people are still waiting for full payment.
ИНДЕКС последовавшей после поездки на место СЕРИИ ПО ЛУСИ:
Как правду о море грязи утопили в море ошибок
Кратчайшее расстояние между тремя истинами
А где же тогда ложь?
Пузыри из бетона, грязи и мыла
И тогда король издал три декрета...
Вулкан в шкафу
Вулканические "Веселые картинки"
UPD 21.5.11: С самолета
То, что вы видите на снимке выше - зона самого большого в мировой истории бедствия, вызванного грязевым вулканом (КАРТА). По названию близлежащего восточнояванского города Сидоарджо его сокращенно называют ЛУСИ (LUmpur - «грязь» - SIdoarjo).
Но, кроме его размеров, в нем нет ничего удивительного. Ведь, в принципе, вся Ява - это один очень большой вулкан.
Highlights: The Largest Mud Volcano Disaster in the World
А очень большая часть Восточной Явы - один большой грязевой вулкан. Где маленькие грязевые вулканчики порой можно найти прямо в жилых домах… Да и как может быть иначе при такой вулканической активности, когда в зонах разломов тысячелетиями «утягиваются» под землю огромные массы буквально сочащихся водой пород?
Эта история началась чуть более двух лет назад - 29 мая 2006 года - через два дня после сильного землетрясения на Центральной Яве. Последнее крайне осложнило вопрос о том, чем же является последовавшее вскоре извержение: стихийным бедствием, следствием нарушения норм при бурении в ходе нефетеразведки или же комбинацией этих двух…
(Я не буду углубляться здесь во все перипетии разбирательств, поскольку в свое время специально посвятил этому статью для региональных СМИ, текст которой на английском - в самом конце) .
Скажу лишь вкратце: суд признал ЛУСИ стихийным бедствием, и у меня нет оснований говорить о чем-то ином, пусть даже прорыв грязевого вулкана произошел близ скважины, пробуренной индонезийской компанией Лапиндо Брантас. А она контролировалась семейством самого богатого на этот момент (по данным журнала Globe Asia - 9,2 миллиарда долларов) человека Индонезии - министра-координатора по вопросам народного благосостояния Абуризала Бакри.
Конечно, велик соблазн обвинить влиятельнейшего деятеля в нажиме на суд, особенно потому, что слишком уж богатых не любят нигде. Но «после» не значит «вследствие», а наиболее серьезные (на мой взгляд) специалисты не считают скважину причиной начала извержения.
"Появление этого феномена предопределили уникальное геологическое строение восточной части Явы и современная активная тектоника, - говорил автору побывавший в зоне бедствия доцент кафедры геологии и геохимии горючих ископаемых геологического факультета МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова Григорий Ахманов. - Природой создан на глубине резервуар воды и газа пока трудно оценимого объема. Природа же запечатала его, и давит на него с огромной силой, создавая аномальные высокие внутренние давления внутри этого объема".
"Извержение на Восточной Яве могло быть инициировано как тектоническими подвижками, вскрывшими резервуар, так и бурением, - считает Ахманов. - Точно определить, является ли Лапиндо виновником трагедии, или же она сам пострадала в результате чудовищного совпадения, невозможно сейчас и не будет возможно никогда. На восточной Яве люди должны относиться к подобным явлениям спокойно и быть готовыми к ним. Такая геологическая обстановка".
Тем более, что президент Индонезии Сусмло Бамбанг Юдхойоно обязал «Лапиндо» выплатить пострадавшим свыше 420 миллионов долларов - вне зависимости от того, виновата ли компания.
(На одной из пресс-конференций в Джакарте Абуризал Бакри долго рассказывал о том, что Лапиндо добровольно делает для жертв. На что последовал вопрос западного коллеги: «А почему вы все это делаете, если вы не виноваты?»
«Вам это не понять, - ответил явно выведенный из терпения министр. - У нас так принято»…
Для меня - аргумент…)
Как бы то ни было, когда из одной из скважин 29 мая забила кипящая грязь, залегающая в этом районе в трех километрах под поверхностью земли, бурильщики попытались перекрыть ее, однако вокруг стали одна за другой образовываться трещины. Выбросы быстро достигли ежедневного объема десятки тысяч кубометров грязи и погребли под собой территорию в 25 квадратных километров, в том числе четыре соседние деревни и участок проходившего поблизости шоссе. Их жителей временно переселили в здание местного рынка, превращенное в лагерь для беженцев.
По словам посетившей пострадавший район министра здравоохранения Индонезии Сити Фадилы Супари, выбрасываемая из-под земли грязь не представляет угрозы для здоровья людей. Тем не менее, по сообщениям с Восточной Явы, в районе выбросов сразу были госпитализированы несколько сот человек, жалующихся на затрудненное дыхание и головокружения (ведь из-под земли выбрасывается не только грязь, но различные газы, а уж они точно не слишком полезны…)
Уже в августе выбросы подземной грязи прорвали наспех возведенную пятиметровую дамбу и нарушили железнодорожное сообщение. Грязь захлестнула даже районный штаб вооруженных сил.
В октябре грязь начали сбрасывать в протекающую поблизости реку Поронг, которая несет ее в море.
Тем самым власти сделали, наконец, окончательный выбор в вечной в перенаселенных районах дилемме: спасать людей или рыб?
Именно так сформулировал ее и министр общественных работ Джоко Кирманто, отвечая на недовольство решением властей защитников окружающей среды. "Если (спасать) рыб, то это означает, что будут затоплены новые деревни", - добавил он.
Множество попыток остановить выбросы - включая сброс в жерло, откуда бьет грязь, гигантских бетонных шаров, успеха не имели. А сейчас, по некоторым данным, ЛУСИ начал проваливаться под собственным весом, угрожая образовать гигантскую кальдеру. По данным специалистов Бандунгского технологического института, в ряде мест в центре затопленной территории уже возникают провалы глубиной до трех метров…
"Подобные неожиданные провалы могут говорить о начале формирования кальдеры - большой вулканической впадины», - говорится в заявлении БТИ, считающего, что ее глубина может составить до полутораста метров.
На этот момент площадь объявленной президентом Индонезии Сусило Бамбангом Юдхойоно непригодной для жизни людей зоны бедствия составляет уже около 640 гектар, в том числе 12 соседних деревень и около 20 заводов. Крова над головой лишились около 36 тысяч человек, которых придется куда-то переселять.
На этот момент на месте прорыва слой грязи уже превысил 15-метровую высоту и вся надежда на растущую сеть дамб, которую скапливающиеся миллионы кубометров выбросов то и дело прорывают.
"Сразу скажу, ничего подобного мы до этого не видели", - говорит Ахманов.
"Прорыв скопившихся под землей масс на поверхность в геологической временной шкале - дело ближайшего времени, в человеческой - сегодня, завтра, через десять, сто, может быть, тысячу лет, - рассказывает он. - Скоро, но неоценимо по сроку. Так работают природные грязевые вулканы и гейзеры".
А специалисты тем временем изучают возможность использования грязи в качестве сырья для производства косметических средств и кирпичей, источника энергии и даже… для разведения рыбы. Той самой, думать о спасении которой уже не приходится.
Но грязевые вулканы способны и приносить пользу. В частности, по данным западноевропейских ученых, расположенные на дне морей являются местом обитания открытых лишь десятилетие назад экзотических микробов, способных внести вклад в борьбу с глобальным потеплением.
Как отмечается в опубликованной Nature статье исследователей из германских и французских НИИ, изучавших расположенный на более чем километровой глубине грязевой вулкан Haakon Mosby на дне Баренцова моря, эти микробы поглощают огромные количества метана.
И если уже искусственно воспроизвести этот процесс еще в больших объемах…
А вот и статья о разборках:
Field Studies vs. "Internet Geology"
Two articles on Sidoardjo mud volcano published by The Jakarta Post quite recently ('Mudflow, bird flu pose dilemma for media' by Mr. Sirikit Syah in Surabaya, February 9 and 'A flood of bad news for honest Aburizal Bakrie Bakrie' by Mr. Kornelius Purba in Jakarta, February 10) represent two different views on two different aspects of LUSI mudflow: its causes and its coverage in Indonesian and international media. Such a discussion is long overdue, so it's a pity many aspects were left out in these two articles. But, of course, it was plain impossible to mention everything there.
Still, more reason to do it here. Especially after the International Workshop on Sidoarjo Mud Volcano held in Jakarta on February 20-21.
To call a spade a spade, the main point under discussion in Indonesia is as follows: is a company partially owned by a Cabinet minister's family automatically guilty of everything that happened during its drilling for gas? Or it is still necessary to prove its fault first. And would it suffice as a "proof" just to refer to a study "proposing" it's guilty?
"In every newsroom, - Mr. Sirikit writes, - it was politically incorrect to refer to the mudflow as a "mud volcano" or "natural disaster". The only politically correct attitude was to blame PT Lapindo. PT Lapindo was denied its right to reply".
So it's quite natural - and politically correct - for Mr. Purba to believe that "very few people accept his [Coordinationg Minister for the People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie] claim that the mud volcano was "purely a natural disaster".
What's really interesting here is that a writer close to Sidoarjo - i.e. the place the disaster is still happening - writes that media "could not even talk about the mudflow objectively and fairly". And a writer in Jakarta - i.e. the place where politics happen - concentrates mostly on what "many experts say" and who to believe.
The former is clearly still not sure about what was the cause of the disaster. But farther from Sidoarjo and closer to Jakarta the picture gets clearer.
Let's make the next step to see more closely who are the experts, mentioned by Mr. Purba, and how far from Sidoarjo they are…
Indonesian and world media has recently provided a lot of coverage to a study by a team led by Richard Davies, a professor at the University of Durham's Centre for Research into Earth Energy Systems in northeastern England. This study "Birth of a mud volcano: East Java, 29 May 2006" was published in the February issue of GSA Today, a journal of the Geological Society of America. Actually, this fact is an alarm bell in itself: why British magazines did not print it? Of course, it might have been just a coincidence, but it is still a reason to be more careful when reporting on it…
There's nothing wrong in studying a mud volcano in Indonesia from Durham, UK - after collecting necessary data. There's nothing wrong in reporting on such a study - after reading it through. But it seems that in this case both preconditions were not met.
One necessarily comes to such a conclusion because after really studying this 'study' some purely logical questions are just unavoidable, but nobody has bothered to ask them.
Although I'm not an expert in geology (an expert opinion would follow below) - quite often plain logic and careful reading would suffice.
First, one news agency in a story quite emphatically titled "Mud volcano 'caused by drilling'" writes that "the British experts analysed satellite images of the area to make their study". That proves the author of the story hasn't read the study. At all. Otherwise he would not have helped noticing the date the images were taken: "about 100 days after the eruption started". Can anybody explain me how an image taken (from space!) over three months after(!) an eruption can determine the reason of what has happened almost three thousand meters below the surface "about 100 days" before?
Besides, the study never said that "Mud volcano (was) 'caused by drilling'". It says, "it is very likely". A sea of difference…
The authors write: "It is reported by local villages that the water-mud mix on the surface had a temperature of 70-100 °C". Reported by whom? No reference. "Local villagers"? At the site of drilling? Running around with thermometers during the first days of the eruption? I wonder, what are their names… And I have certain difficulties believing they reported directly to Dr. R. Davies in Durham…
In Russia we call such "reports" OWS news agency. "One Woman Said…"
This is exactly the main problem of the study: not only its authors have not been within a thousand kilometer of LUSI, but they are also not using any reliable data on it! Their reference list doesn't show a single source even distantly related to LUSI. Two lonely references to Java were published in 1995 and 1985! Still, the authors are sure that "Lusi eruption supports the models proposed by these authors". Can they really be called fully objective observes after that?
During our meeting in Jakarta Dr. R. Davies (who was taking part in the seminar) insisted that the study by his team was based on "reliable" but "confidential" data. So confidential, that it just couldn't be mentioned in the reference.
He believes that criticism regarding the study has at least some ground, as the team was in a hurry to publish it as soon as possible. In such a hurry, that Dr. Davies didn't even request the data from P.T.Lapindo - and he quite willingly acknowledges it.
You know what? I just don't know how they do it in Durham, but in Moscow State University I have graduated from they would not have even agreed to begin discussing a graduate thesis based on "confidential data" that can not be referred to…
Let me introduce another expert who has been to LUSI and doesn't have his own previously published theories on mud volcanoes to prove. Dr. Grigorii G. Akhmanov form UNESCO/MSU Centre for Marine Geology, Department of Petroleum Geology, Faculty of Geology, Moscow State University (by the way, he was also taking part in the seminar in Jakarta). Hope, nobody believes Russia has any stake at LUSI so we may skip 'political correctness'.
Here is Dr. Akhmanov's comment upon the study published in GSA Today:
"It is clear for any reader that the authors have absolutely no data and nothing to discuss, except, maybe, their own ideas. A couple of nice-looking illustrations from their previous studies, not related to LUSI, and enviable pen craft provide the authors a good opportunity to refer to themselves. But their "study" adds nothing to the understanding of LUSI.
LUSI phenomenon is naturally prepared. You don’t have to be a geologist to understand it, looking at the power and scale of its manifestation. Pretty little geological knowledge is needed to realize that East Java basin is extremely favourable for LUSI-like things. The existence of old mud volcanoes within 20 km distance from LUSI illustrates that even for amateurs. Unfortunately, the authors do not know about Gunung Anyar, Kalang Anyar, Pulungan mud volcanoes located near LUSI. I guess, they were not mentioned in Internet reports on the eruption.
What triggered the whole thing is still a big question. If the company can be blamed, it is for triggering but not for causing. It is important to distinguish between these two words.
I don’t believe we will ever be able to reconstruct precisely what has happened then and there at several thousand meters depth. But most scientists knowing active tectonic setting of the region would name a number of other possible natural triggering scenarios besides a drilling accident.
Meanwhile, Dr. Davies' model explains how the last phase of drilling could initiate a propagating fracture to the surface only. His following explanation, why tectonic or hydraulic fracturing at the depth (let’s say, at the same interval as for drilling triggered model) can not allow same processes, is very questionable - to put it mildly. Probably, again because of lack of on-spot data.
And finally, if there is a reason to blame the company (and now we really can only blame it for drilling in a potentially dangerous place), I would recommend to stop immediately any exploration of all East Java basin where LUSI-like things apt to happen any place, any time (like they say it in tourist warnings). And even this will not protect the area 100% from mud volcanic activity. It is there already, as I have mentioned above.
From scientific point of view there is no doubt that LUSI is a unique opportunity to study eruption dynamics and the mechanisms triggering mud volcanism phenomena. This is the reason why we organized an extensive fieldwork in September 2006 that included mapping and sample collection and work with previously obtained geological data. This is why we completed analysis and spent time to interpret our results within a regional geological context. This is how science is done, without prejudice".
But Dr. Davies and his team prefer quite different and really innovative "scientific" approach: there is no need to do fieldwork or analysis of that dull on-spot data any more. All one needs is an Internet connection to surf from a press release to a story on local villagers measuring temperature of the mud. It’s an easy way to become famous - and fast. Especially when the conclusion is quite coincidentally "politically correct".
Now back to the coverage. It seems that it is already a tradition for Indonesian press to reprint stories by leading news agencies without reading them first. For example, this is the only explanation for the dubious pleasure of reading reprints of a story by one these agencies stating that Magellan came to Philippines after visiting Spice Islands. Because anybody at Ternate would tell you that Magellan's expedition arrived there without its leader - who was already killed by that time by Datu Lapu-Lapu in the battle of Maktan.
I'm mentioning it here as it vividly demonstrates how logic can quite frequently be of help. There is no need even to look at a map (any map!) of Magellan's circumnavigation. It is enough to recall that its target was to find a way to Spice Islands from the East - as from the West it was already blocked by the Portuguese. So it was plain impossible for Magellan to get to Ternate before Philippines…
Meanwhile Dr. Davies believes, that what he has heard in Jakarta confirms he and his team were right.
H-m-m… Let me quote only one title of only one paper presented (in English, as Dr. Davies probably couldn't understand the report presented in Bahasa Indonesia by an Indonesian geologists' team specially created to monitor LUSI, stating that "up to now we still don't know the reason"): "Earthquake, the Major Trigger of Mud Vulcanism at Sidoarjo" by two Japanese experts.
Summing up: the farther from the spot, the clearer the picture of what has happened. And the later is also the better. Or so it seems, as the best picture is received from space a hundred days after…
"The more we study, the more we learn. The more we learn, the more we know. The more we know, the more we forget. The more we forget, the less we know. So why study?"
And to hell with sources! To hell with facts! Who needs them at the age of Internet?
Or maybe it is still the duty of a reporter to check and double-check the things he's reporting about? Or at least to read them carefully and from beginning to end?
My conclusion may seem to some akin to blasphemy: what is "politically correct" may be true merely by a coincidence. And even then for a time being only. Simply because policies tend to change thus changing what is "politically correct". But the truth is - or, at least, should be, - permanent. That is why it is called the truth - as opposite to a lie.
Want another example of a "politically correct" statement being a lie? Easy - for a Russian, whose country clearly doesn't have a stake, say, at East Timor. Except for, maybe, being sorry for "witches" they are now burning there.
Can anybody explain me: if East Timor was and is ready for independence, as we being repeatedly told, why should I - a Russian - pay for policing her from my taxes? In the end the funds for the UN police to stay there indefinitely - or so it seems - are coming from member countries' payments… Meaning my taxes, too…
And yours.
UPD PARIS, France, July 21, 2013 (AFP) - Scientists on Sunday sparked a fresh debate over what triggered Indonesia's Lusi mud volcano, still spewing truckloads of slime more than seven years after it leapt catastrophically into life.
Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the study strengthens the argument by gas company PT Lapindo Brantas that the disaster was caused by a distant earthquake, not by its drilling crew as some experts contend.
Lusi, located in the Sidoarjo district of the island of Java, erupted on May 29, 2006 in the middle of a ricefield.
It has destroyed 13 villages, dozens of factories and shops and a highway, prompting the government to build dykes 10 metres (33 feet) high to try to contain its spread. Nearly 50,000 people were displaced.
The new research, by a team led by Stephen Miller at the University of Bonn in Germany, suggests the eruption was caused by the 6.3-magnitude earthquake that occurred two days earlier near Yogyakarta.
"We conclude that the Lusi mud eruption was a natural occurrence," they write.
Even though the two events were some 250 kilometres (125 miles) apart, the rock formation at Sidoarjo has a shape and structure that acted rather like a lens, amplifying and focussing the wave of seismic energy from Yogyakarta, according to their computer model.
The jolt of energy would have liquefied the source of the mud, causing it to be injected into a fault connected with a deep hydrothermal system. This superheated blowout feeds the eruption today, goes their theory.
Asked to comment on the study, British geologist Richard Davies pointed to the daily drilling reports from the Lapindo Brantas team at Sidoarjo.
It showed their gas exploration was going awry, Davies said.
On the day of the eruption, the drillers acknowledged that they were having problems in stabilising pressure in the hole, a routine procedure that uses injected fluids, as they sought to withdrew their drillbit, he said.
That, and the lack of protective casing around the hole, "was like pulling the cork out of a champagne bottle," causing a "kick" of high-pressure mud to blow from the hole, Davies, a professor at Durham University, told AFP in a phone interview.
"When the Yogyakarta earthquake occurred, nothing happened in the well. The pressure in the well was already many orders of magnitude bigger than the pressure changes due to the Yogyakarta earthquake," Davies.
"They've come up with an elaborate geophysical model but I think they've ignored the more obvious data," said Davies said.
Seismologists have widely, but not unanimously, sided with his explanation. Some note that much larger earthquakes had previously occurred closer to Sidoarjo yet not caused any mud volcano.
At its peak, Lusi disgorged 180,000 cubic metres (6.4 million cubic feet) of mud a day.
Today, the rate has fallen to between 15,000 and 20,000 cu. m.(500,000 and 700,000 cu. ft.) per day, according to the government's Sidoarjo Mudflow Mitigation Agency, or BPLS.
This is roughly equivalent to between six and eight Olympic-sized swimming pools of muck per day.
Amein Widodo, a geologist from the Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology in nearby Surabaya city, said it was impossible to predict how long the volcano would keep erupting. "The amount of mud has reduced a lot, but having seen other cases in Java, it's possible it could erupt for more than 100 years," said Widodo.
All victims have received some compensation, some of them from the government and others from Lapindo Brantas, despite its claim of no wrongdoing. The company is part of a business empire controlled by Indonesia's powerful Bakrie family.
Around 5,000 people are still waiting for full payment.
ИНДЕКС последовавшей после поездки на место СЕРИИ ПО ЛУСИ:
Как правду о море грязи утопили в море ошибок
Кратчайшее расстояние между тремя истинами
А где же тогда ложь?
Пузыри из бетона, грязи и мыла
И тогда король издал три декрета...
Вулкан в шкафу
Вулканические "Веселые картинки"
UPD 21.5.11: С самолета