Comments | jrittenhouse: Oil shock: a prediction for the future:

jrittenhouse

Oil shock: a prediction for the future:

Jun 29, 2008 01:12

There’s a new report out that is predicting $7 a gallon gas by 2010 and a serious collapse of the gasoline car market by that time as people start to seriously give up having a car around.

This would force the working poor off the roads, but having them use public transport only works in places where such things are available. In most of the USA, ( Read more... )

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Comments 53

rmeidaking June 29 2008, 08:24:44 UTC

The car market has already collapsed, with gasoline at $4. There are at least four people now commuting from Dexter on Vespa-scooterish vehicles, and we may join them before long ( ... )

brett_dunbar June 29 2008, 09:38:18 UTC

Remember that is the UK price includes tax. VAT in the UK is 17.5% so the pre-tax price isn't a lot different. The recent changes in the exchange rate have increased it a bit relative to the US prices.

madtechie2718 June 29 2008, 12:03:45 UTC

Correction: I think it's going to get worse and will not get better, I don't see any way that gas is going to drop in price, so sans new technology, traditional personal transport is going to remain expensive for a very long time.

Unless, of course, we remove a couple Billion of those persky thirld-worlders who now want cars, central heating and electric light...

Maybe we should blame the sppread of the internet for raising their aspirations?

shelleybear June 29 2008, 15:04:09 UTC

Nope, I blame the death of American innovation and bad capitalism (the latter caused the former).

Thread 7

controuble June 29 2008, 11:12:54 UTC

The car market is shaky, yup. I ordered my Honda Fit on 4/1. I was given a delivery date of 4/17. The car finally showed up on 5/20 - barely in time to use it to go to Columbus. The flip side is that the price CarMax was willing to give me for the Volvo wagon went DOWN $1000 in the 2 months between the time I ordered the Fit and I was able to try again the beginning of June.

madtechie2718 June 29 2008, 13:08:28 UTC

OK, different case, the UK being relatively compact, but nigh-on $10 per gallon hasn't crippled us - though it is causing a great deal of pain ( ... )

shelleybear June 29 2008, 15:07:25 UTC

As travellers in this direction will know, almost all goods in the US are still far cheaper than here, but I don't know how average earnings compare.

Bull shit!
Factor in the cost of health care and food (how much is a two point five kilo sack of flour (a basic staple) there?)
Trust me, you have a much better quality of life then we do, and at a lower cost.

madtechie2718 June 29 2008, 17:18:42 UTC

I was tempted to reply in the same unwarranted rude and obnoxious way that you have, but instead, perhaps you'd like to tell me how many times per year you cross the Atlantic and how much actual true experience of walking into shops on both ides of the pond ( ... )

shelleybear June 29 2008, 17:47:19 UTC

A dollar?
Not a pound?
For two and a half pounds of flour?
Wal-Mart *feh* charges $3.50 to $4.00 for a five pound sack of basic flour.
Read DOUBLE what you pay.
A thousand dollars a month?
read $1200.00 for some folks (and that assumes you don't get disqualified because of preexisting medical conditions or get slapped with additional fees). I lived in Canada for 14 years so I have SOME experience with socialized medicine and I know enough Brits to have my facts confirmed.
I do apologize for the tone of my comment, as I tend to be flippant in general.

Thread 18

Behold the Alternative shelleybear June 29 2008, 15:00:29 UTC

Yeah, it's real.
Just for arguments sake, what IF the government got behind it an FORCED the auto industry to partner with Tesla Motors.
F.D.R. did things like that.
Maybe Obama will.

Re: Behold the Alternative madtechie2718 June 29 2008, 16:37:10 UTC

>Just for arguments sake, what IF the government ( ... )

Re: Behold the Alternative jrittenhouse June 29 2008, 16:52:43 UTC

The US electricity grid is already in crappy shape in various ways; companies deciding to play craps with the money didn't put it into infrastructure, and the transmission systems are shaky.

Dermot, I honestly can't see the electric cars ramping up that fast - I've always understood that the real hold up has been in the battery tech, in particular the materials research and testing.

Someone who is better versed than I in the engineering questions can help on this.

Re: Behold the Alternative shelleybear June 29 2008, 17:37:34 UTC

Jim, Tesla motors is addressing the issue.
By and large, we know a "Manhattan"-like energy project can succeed.
See my comment re solar shingles.
Batteries that are flexible enough to fold and store.
Coming out to recharge when a standard connection isn't available. We have them now, and they are becoming more efficient every day.

Thread 26

satyadasa June 30 2008, 19:59:59 UTC

Regional rail system looks great!