Speculation on Liquid Luck

[terri_testing]

This idea came up in an exchange with, if I recall, madderbrad, but for those who missed it there, here’s my theory on Felix Felicis.

Horace told his class it was “Desperately tricky to make, and disastrous to get wrong.” (HBP 9

Comments

[madderbrad]

Ah, the abomination known as Felix Felicis. Another one of Rowling's one-book wonders, a throw-away gimmick that we - and Harry, and all the wizards - are supposed to forget about, for the convenience of Rowling's story. Like the powers of the house elves, who can bring to a halt wizarding infrastructure (train ingress, postal service), easily subdue wizards (Malfoy, Fletcher), Apparate through inpenetrable wards, survive death traps set by the Dark Lord himself ... and yet are restrained to using cleavers and other kitchen utensils in the final battle ... because otherwise they could finish the fight - the war! - with one click of their fingers.

Anyway. :-)

There’s at least one step that has, say, a fifty-fifty chance of blowing up in the brewer’s face. Fatally.From where did you get this information

[condwiramurs]

Terri isn't using a canon reference regarding the 50-50 chance of that step going wrong. If I read the essay correctly, that's part of the theory itself: from a Watsonian perspective, the stuff must be very difficult indeed to get hold of if Narcissa Malfoy for one isn't buying up every vial of it for her son, and wealthy/connected/desperate people like some of the DEs aren't dosing themselves with it right and left. Why would it be so difficult to get, for people with money, motive, and a willingness to use any method necessary to get it? Because for some reason it's so difficult/too dangerous/too SOMETHING to brew, or have people brew under Imperius, with any regular success.

Terri is positing that, Watsonianly, the reason for the low success rate and lack of eager brewers is that it is inherently, and necessarily, risky to brew even when done correctly because it requires that risk to "purchase" the luck it imbues. You have to be willing to literally sacrifice your life in order to brew it correctly, because there's a 50% chance

[terri_testing]

What a very nice restatement of my argument, speaking of elegance! Thanks.

[terri_testing]

Condwiramurs, you just made me realize something.

It cannot be brewed under Imperius.

The Imperius can force a brewer to take a certain risk. It can't make the brewer willingly accept it.

Moreover, most of Tom's (or anyone's) attempts to force people to brew it by other means have, equally, miserably failed. And Tom can't figure out why.

"Brew this or I'll kill you!"

Um. If I fail I have 100% chance of dying; if I succeed, a 50% chance.

Doing it right wouldn't be risking death, then. So I try my hardest, doing everything right, and "Avada Kedavra!"

The only way successfully to force someone to brew it, would be to threaten someone else. "Brew it or I'll kill your son!"

I really hope Tom and the WW haven't worked that one out.

[librasmile]

That IS a fairly elegant theory. =^) And I'm with you on the "nothing comes for free" tip

[oryx_leucoryx]

Where do you see a negative rebound when Harry used the Felix?

[terri_testing]

Love caeria!

Covenants and potions and negative rebound.... I'm not sure that canon establishes a rebound. Harry fFELT unlucky when his dose started to wear off, but it's not clear he really was--I mean his annoying run-ins with Peeves and the Fat Lady served to get him to DD's office that night. Doesn't seem wildly unlucky to me. Sluggy said it was very dangerous in excess (either one-time overdose or over-protracted use), but not otherwise.

And the thing about potions is... a lot of magic is, I do A, it has effect .B. Almost all of the magic Harry learns is like that. There's an Emma Bull quote I used as epigraph for "Red Maned Lion" that's really apropos:

“Hoodoo is all the energy and attention you bring to what you do. Everything you do. The work of your hands, done with all your attention, becomes a container full of energy that you can transfer to someone else. Baking bread is a hoodoo work. So’s putting in a garden. Or fixing an amplifier, or teaching someone else to. If you do it right, with your whole head,

[mary_j_59]

That's the nature of a Potion. To be a gift.

Interesting implications there, aren't there?!

[dracasadiablo]

I like this theory.
For a while now I considered it probable that Snape was the one who brewed Felix Felicis. That there was a cost for that and that Harry was meant to have some of the potion from the day one.

Mostly, I theorized that cost for Felix Felicis is something like the broken mirror superstitions. That when making it, potion master have to "give up" all good luck they would have in the upcoming X number of years. So, the potion is nothing more then extremely concentrated good luck, that would be normally spread over the years, taking effect in a short amount of time.
And that is why Snape was oh, so very lucky for the two years he had to live after making it.

But I like this even better.

[terri_testing]

Your theory is interesting too! A different way of turning one's one sacrifice into luck that could be given to another.

I snorted at your "Snape was oh, so very lucky for the two years he had to live"! Yeah, that would explain a lot.

Except, you know, he did win. And kept most of the children safe. Including Lily's son, which had seemed impossible for a time. I think that's as much luck as he would have asked for.

And I agree with you, that dose was always intended (by Dumbles) to go to Harry.

[madderbrad]

And I agree with you, that dose was always intended (by Dumbles) to go to Harry.

*gak*

No, no, no, the whole ridiculous chain of events in Dumbledore's 'plan' for Harry to win - clues handed over in the inheritance, it's a Quest, no it isn't, yes it is, Harry accidentally becoming master of the Elder wand, accidentally overhearing goblins talking about the Sword, carrying around broken shards of a mirror for no reason BRAIN APPROACHING OVERLOAD - no, no, no, that's enough to blow one's mind.

Now you're saying the FF in book 6 was all part of this 'plan'? But there's absolutely no hint of that.

Mind you, it's hard for me to even start considering your notion, given how STUPID the whole 'you must get Slughorn's memory to prove the theory that in the end is wrong anyway and the 'proof' useless' subplot was. What a horrible series. Those last two books were just catastrophes.

[mary_j_59]

Oh, yes, the absolute pointlessness of those drawn-out private lessons! All that information about Tom's childhood - the carefully crafted comparison between Harry, Tom, and Severus that went absolutely NOWHERE! The implication that poor old Slughorn got manipulated into teaching Potions just so Harry could get that memory. And, you know, we still don't know what a Horcrux really is or how they are created. As to destroying them, I do love the theory that the Dementors could and should have done it. They also proved to be pretty useless, in the end, along with a lot of other things that were built up as important (house unity, anyone? the power of love? house elves, as pointed out above? respect for the magical brethren? And, speaking of magical brethren, what was all that nonsense with Grawp in the previous book!)

[oryx_leucoryx]

I love the idea, however I must point out that it is hard to rule out Draco being on Felix on the tower. How more lucky could he have been that night, given that it was too late to avoid being assigned his mission in the first place? He managed to maintain the integrity of his soul while having enough success that Severus could advocate for him to Voldemort - heck, Draco managed to bring more active-duty DEs to Hogwarts than anyone before him. He just needs some practice casting Unforgivables and he'd be top-notch DE material. Draco was successful enough that Voldemort let all 3 Malfoys live. Oh, he also disarmed Dumbles and became Master of the Elder Wand - are you sure no luck was involved there

[madderbrad]

Like condwiramurs and others have said, this *is* a neat little theory you've come up with, even if you're wildly extrapolating from half a sentence of the canon. It's like you have an elephant balancing on a pea, if you know what I mean. But, like you said - it's still FUN. :-)

It would have been nice if Rowling had worked out the mechanics of her potions - magic out equals magic in - and so gave us more reason to suspect that a sacrifice - of magic, of 'luck', of 'life' - was required as input for successfully brewing the abomination known as Felix Felicis.

Have you ever read Diane Duane's "Door into" series of four books? She's best known for her 'Young Wizards" series - must be ten-plus books by now - *immensely* superior to Rowling's work - I know I've mentioned her name here before - but in her 'door into' series she makes it clear that casting spells takes years off one's life. Unless one manages to use a different, higher level of magic.

So I think Duane would endorse your theory. :-)

[mary_j_59]

Well, magic takes years off your life in the "Young Wizards", too! Terri and I are both huge fans; she wanted me to write a comparison between Snape and Ed the shark. I'm not up for it, I'm afraid. But Duane treats Ed a lot better than Rowling does Snape.

BTW, I love your image of an Elephant balancing on a pea! In retrospect, I'm afraid my theories about the books were like that too - though I still stand by my "grand unified theory", which is that Rowling threw in anything and everything from the 19th century English novels she knew and loved, without considering the implications of what she was writing.

[madderbrad]

Well, magic takes years off your life in the "Young Wizards", too!

Yes, of course it does! I'd quite forgotten.

Although I'm not totally clear on that. I know spells take *energy*, but can it be replenished? Or is it actually 'life force', shortening the wizards' lives? I do recall hints (or maybe stronger than hints) about the latter.

I really have to go and read the latest couple of books of the series, I'm not up to date.

By the way, just in case you don't know, if you go to Duane's LJ blog - user dduane - you'll see that (a) she's half-way through a series of drabbles setting up Kit and Nita as her 'OTP' and (b) she's releasing new editions of the books, updated for the modern age. I have to go and read those drabbles, my time in HP has activated my 'romantic gene', I'd love to see Kit and Nita as a couple.

(She seems to have stopped mid-way through her set. :-()

she wanted me to write a comparison between Snape and Ed the shark.

Snape and Ed! Hee. Yes, I can see similarities there. Interesting.

though I still