Speculation on Liquid Luck

[terri_testing]

This idea came up in an exchange with, if I recall, madderbrad, but for those who missed it there, here’s my theory on Felix Felicis.

Horace told his class it was “Desperately tricky to make, and disastrous to get wrong.” (HBP 9

Comments

[condwiramurs]

Terri isn't using a canon reference regarding the 50-50 chance of that step going wrong. If I read the essay correctly, that's part of the theory itself: from a Watsonian perspective, the stuff must be very difficult indeed to get hold of if Narcissa Malfoy for one isn't buying up every vial of it for her son, and wealthy/connected/desperate people like some of the DEs aren't dosing themselves with it right and left. Why would it be so difficult to get, for people with money, motive, and a willingness to use any method necessary to get it? Because for some reason it's so difficult/too dangerous/too SOMETHING to brew, or have people brew under Imperius, with any regular success.

Terri is positing that, Watsonianly, the reason for the low success rate and lack of eager brewers is that it is inherently, and necessarily, risky to brew even when done correctly because it requires that risk to "purchase" the luck it imbues. You have to be willing to literally sacrifice your life in order to brew it correctly, because there's a 50% chance you will die in the attempt. That willingness (not the death, just the willingness/acceptance of risk) is what gives the potion its power. That neatly answers the question of how such a potion would function magically to provide such incredible, at times life-saving, luck and the question of why the potion is so rarely used.

A fairly elegant theory, IMHO, terri.

[terri_testing]

What a very nice restatement of my argument, speaking of elegance! Thanks.

[terri_testing]

Condwiramurs, you just made me realize something.

It cannot be brewed under Imperius.

The Imperius can force a brewer to take a certain risk. It can't make the brewer willingly accept it.

Moreover, most of Tom's (or anyone's) attempts to force people to brew it by other means have, equally, miserably failed. And Tom can't figure out why.

"Brew this or I'll kill you!"

Um. If I fail I have 100% chance of dying; if I succeed, a 50% chance.

Doing it right wouldn't be risking death, then. So I try my hardest, doing everything right, and "Avada Kedavra!"

The only way successfully to force someone to brew it, would be to threaten someone else. "Brew it or I'll kill your son!"

I really hope Tom and the WW haven't worked that one out.

[ioanna_ioannina]

I really hope Tom and the WW haven't worked that one out.

Wow, can you see the plot bunny sticking his long ears over there?

I love your theory. It helps me with thinking about dark magic in my own world. Thx!

[madderbrad]

the stuff must be very difficult indeed to get hold of if Narcissa Malfoy for one isn't buying up every vial of it for her son

And yet there's a cauldron of the stuff bubbling away in the Potions classroom, just a short distance from the Slytherin chambers. But we don't see Narcissa or anyone else trying to purloin the potion. Or even any significant "MUST GET IT!" reaction from the pureblood students.

One would expect those 'people with money, motive, and a willingness to use any method necessary to get it' to actually try and ... get it ... from Slughorn, yes?

But no. Because Rowling couldn't handle her characters behaving in character. They had to stick to her simplistic plot, eyes ahead, do NOT think for yourselves!