To figure out what Albus believed saved Harry from Tom that night, we have to look closely at his actions. (Including his speech acts, while making sure not to assume he’s invariably speaking truthfully.)
So, what acts can we judge Twinkles on?
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It *is* on-topic! Just on a more cosmic level.
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This is a lovely summation of Dumbles' probable thought processes given the canon sources and the community's latest theories. Thank you for laying everything out so clearly.
I don't think (or at least, don't want to) that Albus' flash from 'gleam of triumph' to 'as old and weary as Harry had ever seen' was just the realization that his spell work had been upstaged. I'd hope it was also his epiphany that, whatever his conscious rationalizations, he'd been wrong. Not just ethically and morally, which he must have known on some level, but even on the basis of tactics he'd played the callous incompetent. That must have been a nasty shock. Certainly enough make him look worn and exhausted even in the face of what should be a joyous discovery. It's rather to his credit that he didn't break down then and ( ... )
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Tom Marvolo Riddle: His mother chose to bring him to term despite poor health and harsh living conditions. Tom should have received a single dose of parental-sacrifice-induced luck. I'm thinking this gift of luck expired when he went and killed his father. Do we see signs that Tom was luckier before his father's death compared to later?
Barty Crouch Jr: His mother shortened her life when she took his place in Azkaban. Maybe the gift of luck was smaller because she was already dying. But Elkins has a posting where she shows that Barty was beginning to slip after killing his father. maybe his success at being fake!Moody without getting caught is in part due to his mother's sacrifice?
Is Neville lucky? What about Luna?
Did Ariana sacrifice herself for her brothers? Did they become lucky after her death?
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Mrs Crouch died to save her son from dementors. It worked, which is why he was neither found by the Minstry for years on end, wasn't caught at the QWC, nor caught in his impersonation of Moody for a long time. Then he killed his father, thus negating the protection. He started slipping with the timing of his Polyjuice, and eventually got caught and soul-sucked.
I have no idea about the other examples.
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Tom killed his father and grandparents in the summer after his 5th year, right? We know that before that, he'd been able to run a reign of terror undetected (and be beloved by most teachers to boot), and to find the Chamber of Secrets and control the basilisk within.
Afterward, he never found a way to open the Chamber again, managed to get a bit of information about Horcruxes from Slughorn but at the cost of making Slughorn just a little suspicious, and otherwise continued to be outwardly a model Hogwarts student while slowly building his power base. He then worked in a shop for... several years, was it? before getting ahold of two relics he'd really been wanting ( ... )
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