To figure out what Albus believed saved Harry from Tom that night, we have to look closely at his actions. (Including his speech acts, while making sure not to assume he’s invariably speaking truthfully.)
So, what acts can we judge Twinkles on?
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Also: Unless Albus used time travel (like in your fic) then he instructed Hagrid to bring Harry to 4PD before he knew any of the details. All he could have known from Hogwarts was that his alarm (whatever form it took) was tripped and Severus' Dark Mark was fading (or has faded). So he knew that the Secret Keeper had given up the secret, Tom must have come to Godric's Hollow, but then something went very wrong for him. Also, the prophecy implies (at least) 2 encounters between Tom and his potential vanquisher.
Good thinking about which protection was gone after GOF and which one remained.
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