Math time.

[kagerou_da_ne]

Assuming:

Y = [t + 2I + A+ 2(SI + 2SA)]/400 300

and

X = 100% - YI would say my probability of returning to my home world within the next month would be between 65% and 75%. However, the short time I have been in camp is skewing the numbers just a bit, so that may be a conservative estimate. I would say the probability is closer to 45% or 50

Comments

[master_of_mon]

...what

[kagerou_da_ne]

If you know the correct variables to use, you can solve nearly any problem.

[master_of_mon]

He's sayin' somethin', Pikachu, but I don't think it's English. Let's try to find out!

[master_of_mon]

Hi! My name is Ash! ASH. You speak English? Nod if you do!

[anyposition]

...

[kagerou_da_ne]

Yes?

[anyposition]

Y'sound like Wesley.

[kagerou_da_ne]

I'm afraid I don't know a Wesley.

[acdragonmaster]

...you, sir, rock. And I wanna know exactly the mechanics behind how that formula works now.

[kagerou_da_ne]

Don't we all.

((It's basically a mathematical representation of stuff we already know - that characters tend to leave if they don't have anyone to stay for, or else if they're not seen often. The second set is the likelihood of someone getting re-apped based on how many very close relations and how many canonmates they have in camp, although it rests on the assumption that the longer a char has been gone, the less likely it is that they'll be re-apped))

[acdragonmaster]

((Yeah, I got the gist of it, was just trying to figure out exactly what stood for what... though is that actually supposed to be 2(SI + 2SA)/400 + t + 2I + A like you've got it written, or is it (t + 2I + A+ 2(SI + 2SA))/400 since I'm guessing the /100 is to turn it into a percentage in the second formula, so in the first it's probably the same purpose, but 400 because there's four components to the top?))

[kagerou_da_ne]

((Ahahahaha oh god, you're right! I even made sure to double-parenthesis in the second equation! I just can't put the whole thing over t like I can on paper, thus I screwed up typing it out! Thank you!))

[hasibutzi]

But...

[kagerou_da_ne]

I am not planning on going anywhere, Tot.

[hasibutzi]

I don't want you to.

[kagerou_da_ne]

...I am quite disinclined to want to leave without you. But... were I to go home...

Well. I believe you know what is waiting for me.

[mooning_you]

I don't get it. Do I have to know math to go home?

[hascoldhands]

*pinged*

Knowing how unlikely it is...probably. Ah...not really, Usagi-chan. He's figuring out a pattern in the people that are able to leave the barrier.

[mooning_you]

So, there's a pattern? Like all blondes go one day and the brunettes the next?

[hascoldhands]

--Nothing so specific, I'd think. Just the probability of a person's ability to successfully flee the barrier.