How I think it will play out

[eric_tse]

Contrary to many opinions that the sky is falling, I think the future will not be so bleak. The rising gas prices are actually strengthening my opinion, because they already force people to change their lifestyles despite the fact that gas is still pretty cheap here. So here it goes:

1. As the prices rise, the public transportation will start to

Comments

[ytterbius]

Tar Sands suck.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aoCSD7m5zHhA&refer=home

[eric_tse]

Yea, but - it is the source of oil that is available now. I hate the fact that nature is being destroyed in the process, but the reality is - it will get mined.

[eric_tse]

All that is more reason to use this oil as wisely as we can, to make this mess even a little bit worthwhile. I think higher oil prices will actually help this.

[luminairex]

Uranium is also a finite resource, and I believe there is much less of it than crude oil. Would that not, then, shift the demand from oil to uranium used as a nuclear power source? While I agree that it is a viable alternative to oil in the short-term, our children and grandchildren may refer to it in a century as "peak uranium". Not to mention that all that nuclear waste needs to be contained for several millenia somewhere.

The underlying issue is that energy is being consumed at a far greater rate than it's being regenerated. Much has to change, and as you've rightly deduced it already is in many ways

[eric_tse]

Absolutely. I won't hold my breath for fusion either. We'll have to use the same approach and eventually transition from nuclear to solar derivatives only(wind, OTEC, algae, etc). And if fusion becomes a success, its the brave new world again :)

[sirveri]

Uranium is strange stuff when it comes to fuel. Most of it isn't a thermal fuel and isn't useable for fission, however if you put in in a reactor just to bulk the reactor up you actually turn it into fuel. And there is also the small chance that it will be used as fuel. Also there are other completely untapped fuel cycles such as Thorium, that aren't even researched to the point where they are useable (but in theory they are quite useable). Then finally there are the Transuranic fuel cycles

[squidb0i]

Agreed! Predictions of impending doom have more to do with lack of vision than anything else.

Question is, when will the US government get off its ass and stop feeding welfare and andi-competitive legislation to Big Oil?
We need a Manhattan Project for energy.

[peristaltor]

A quick point: the hybrids operated by Metro and Sound Transit are not true hybrids, but diesel only. They do not use overhead lines, nor can they be "plugged in" to a non-diesel power source. Furthermore, they are only slightly more efficient than the buses without hybrid drives. If you can't plug it in, it ain't electric. (I know because I drive them

[eric_tse]

Thanks peristaltor for very interesting reply! I may be mistaken, but I think I saw buses ( the longer variety) on Eastside with the electrical poles on the roof, in the folded position. Since there are no overhead lines on Eastside, these buses obviously have diesel engines, and because they also have the electric poles, I concluded that when they go to Seattle they raise them up and use the lines. Am I mistaken?
Excellent point on the Miles car. We almost bought it, and I wasn't going to hack it. The turn-off for me was the price($18K is a bit too much for this kind of car - it should cost no more than $12K in my opinion. Also, since its not highway legal and it goes only up to 40, it is not possible to take in on the bridges across the lake. If they could make this car go at least 55, that would be ideal, but I guess above 40 they hitting some sort of a physical limit with the batteries.

[peristaltor]

When did you see the diesel bus with the folded poles? Metro stopped running them (the Italian-made Bredas) about three years ago. The poles were designed solely to power the bus through the downtown bus tunnel which used a different line voltage than the street wires. Those buses have since been modified to use the street voltage. Drivers now call them Frankenbredas.

$18K for a Miles?!? That is excessive. A neighbor has one. I've only glanced at it, but it did seem well put together. . . on the outside. Sadly, electric components are the pricey parts. That's where most electric vehicle makers skimp, choosing the flooded batteries and dc drive systems over safer tech. (I give the skinny on dc here). I'm at least glad the Miles uses ac

[eric_tse]

Yes, I saw them in Bellevue about three years ago. Thanks for explaining! Regarding Miles car - the car itself is a Daihatsu, with electric engine. I believe they use gel batteries. The dealership is on Dearborn street, right off I90. Web site http://www.mcev.biz

[incendiary_dan]

Okay, but care to address the cascading effects? Maybe some numbers? Not to shoot you down or anything, but it seems a bit naive to think these energy sources will be supplement enough to off-set much of our oil dependence. And that's only worrying about the first world, and not all the other countries in the world, which will be destabilized and war-torn, and will probably want to come after us for it.

I'm not saying it's all going to be doom and gloom, but that's just because I think the world will be much better off if we just get rid of civilization itself. The period in which it goes through death-throes, however, will be pretty rough, especially in cities.

[eric_tse]

These energy sources won't supplement anything - thats where reduced energy usage comes in. Our lifestyles will take a big hit, no question about that. I also think that civilization is fundamentally good, but it must be smart. Don't want to sound like communist (communism sucks) but I think it depends on people's education. Educated people will tend to make better long-term choices in life, which is better for everybody.
I don't buy your "problems in the cities" statement, because cities tend to concentrate power with a government, mafia boss, whatever - and evil as these things are, they are interested in some soft of public order. On the other hand, the country will be open to all kinds of lawlessness. You may protect your farm once or twice, but they'll get you eventually - its pretty easy to shoot a farmer in the back while he tries to work his land.

[incendiary_dan]

Your claims are historically unfounded. In the past, when civilizations have gone through collapse due to diminishing energy sources (and this definitely is a collapse, with all the tell-tale signs). People flock to the city, because they see it as the concentration of resources it is. These resources prove not to be enough. This over-burdens cities to the extreme, and the rapid increase of population density in places already too dense ends up meaning increases in violence, especially over the diminishing resources. Governments, crime bosses, and other aspiring power-mongers increasingly turn to violence and oppression as a way to control the population.

Your claims about the country are partially true, though. They do become "lawless", but the lack of law in fact creates a condition of far more order. Peoples' lives and standards of living improve as they take control of their own lives. The equation of law and order is about as fictitious as the medical research sponsored by tobacco companies.

[incendiary_dan]

Oh yea, meant to link you to http://anthropik.com/thirty/ for further reading. Not only does Godesky thoroughly cover a lot of areas, but he also gives a hefty bibliography with each essay.