How I think it will play out
Contrary to many opinions that the sky is falling, I think the future will not be so bleak. The rising gas prices are actually strengthening my opinion, because they already force people to change their lifestyles despite the fact that gas is still pretty cheap here. So here it goes:
1. As the prices rise, the public transportation will start to be more practical, and it will start to develop more. It is not very difficult to add bus routes. Buses do burn gas, but if a bus keeps 30 cars off the road, its way more efficient. Also, here in Seattle, just like in Europe, there are electric trolley-buses, using electricity from powerlines above the streets. Some of them are actually hybrid, having both electric engine and a diesel engine for those areas where are no over-the-street power lines. These will become more prominent as more routes are added.
2. Nuclear power - it will grow big time in US. New plants will be built. It is possible to heat homes with electricity, and also run a city public transportation on it (see #1) so adding electrical capacity is definitely important. Also, it may save oil that is being used for power generation.
3. Electric cars - they are here right now, and they are "almost" practical. I personally test-driven the Miles ZX40S electric car, which has a 50 miles range and top speed of 40 mph (which is artificially lowered, it is possible to hack the system and override it to make it go faster). These cars are perfect for city driving. They don't waste energy on traffic lights, and they use power regeneration when braking. I easily kept up with the traffic on Seattle streets during the test drive, and I had my wife, two kids and the dealer in that car. As gas prices will rise, these cars will be more and more appealing. The only catch with the ZX40S for now - it is not highway-legal.
4. Trains - more and more cargo will be moved by rail, as opposed to trucks. Interestingly, look at railroad stock prices for the past three years :)
5. Bikes, motorbikes, scooters, electric bikes, etc - these will be used more and more, especially in areas with more sunshine and less rain (LA for example). That of course is not a solution for everybody, but many people do use these means of transportation, including myself, and it does help to save gas for that weekend trip.
6. Wind - the wind is growing at a fast clip, and it will continue to do so, because it is pretty easy and straightforward - more turbines, more electricity.
7. Smaller cars - I see less and less Ford Expeditions, and more and more Toyota Yarises, Honda Fits and Priuses on the road - that will help with efficiency, and will keep the gasoline consumption per capita flat or declining.
8. Government rationing - at some point, the market for gas will stop being free, and the government will allocate more of it for things like trucking food, and less for discretionary driving. There will be problems, and the new rules will get circumvented and abused here and there, but it will probably ensure that your bread and potatos will still appear at the local supermarket. How do I know? Because even in the darkest days of USSR collapse, bread and potatos were available, and you really don't need much more than that :)
9. Alberta tar sands - this things is huge, and its right at our doorstep. If we use it wisely, it will allow us much softer transition. I don't even think it is yet necessary to drill in ANWAR.
10. Coal - this stuff is still here, and it is an energy source which can power trains and powerplants, and be used to make gasoline, chemicals and such. Again, if we use it wisely, it will last for a long time.
11. Reduced consumption - above all, people will not be able to consume as much as they used to, and reduced consumption means reduced energy usage. Many people will be upset by this, but really, most of the consumption we do here is completely discretionary. You don't have to fly on vacation, or zip around the lake in a jetski, or drive to the mountains to ski. It sucks, I know, but all those things will be available to less and less people. Then again, the snow junkies craving for the fix can always carpool or take the shuttle bus :)
So here are my thoughts, based on my own experiences here as well as having lived through the collapse of one super-state already. People are adaptable creatures, and we will adapt. And who knows, 50 years from now when Russia and Saudi Arabia are sucking on the last bits of their oil, we will already have developed a nimble and energy-efficient infrastructure, ready to move to the future without having to burn oil for our mobility.
1. As the prices rise, the public transportation will start to be more practical, and it will start to develop more. It is not very difficult to add bus routes. Buses do burn gas, but if a bus keeps 30 cars off the road, its way more efficient. Also, here in Seattle, just like in Europe, there are electric trolley-buses, using electricity from powerlines above the streets. Some of them are actually hybrid, having both electric engine and a diesel engine for those areas where are no over-the-street power lines. These will become more prominent as more routes are added.
2. Nuclear power - it will grow big time in US. New plants will be built. It is possible to heat homes with electricity, and also run a city public transportation on it (see #1) so adding electrical capacity is definitely important. Also, it may save oil that is being used for power generation.
3. Electric cars - they are here right now, and they are "almost" practical. I personally test-driven the Miles ZX40S electric car, which has a 50 miles range and top speed of 40 mph (which is artificially lowered, it is possible to hack the system and override it to make it go faster). These cars are perfect for city driving. They don't waste energy on traffic lights, and they use power regeneration when braking. I easily kept up with the traffic on Seattle streets during the test drive, and I had my wife, two kids and the dealer in that car. As gas prices will rise, these cars will be more and more appealing. The only catch with the ZX40S for now - it is not highway-legal.
4. Trains - more and more cargo will be moved by rail, as opposed to trucks. Interestingly, look at railroad stock prices for the past three years :)
5. Bikes, motorbikes, scooters, electric bikes, etc - these will be used more and more, especially in areas with more sunshine and less rain (LA for example). That of course is not a solution for everybody, but many people do use these means of transportation, including myself, and it does help to save gas for that weekend trip.
6. Wind - the wind is growing at a fast clip, and it will continue to do so, because it is pretty easy and straightforward - more turbines, more electricity.
7. Smaller cars - I see less and less Ford Expeditions, and more and more Toyota Yarises, Honda Fits and Priuses on the road - that will help with efficiency, and will keep the gasoline consumption per capita flat or declining.
8. Government rationing - at some point, the market for gas will stop being free, and the government will allocate more of it for things like trucking food, and less for discretionary driving. There will be problems, and the new rules will get circumvented and abused here and there, but it will probably ensure that your bread and potatos will still appear at the local supermarket. How do I know? Because even in the darkest days of USSR collapse, bread and potatos were available, and you really don't need much more than that :)
9. Alberta tar sands - this things is huge, and its right at our doorstep. If we use it wisely, it will allow us much softer transition. I don't even think it is yet necessary to drill in ANWAR.
10. Coal - this stuff is still here, and it is an energy source which can power trains and powerplants, and be used to make gasoline, chemicals and such. Again, if we use it wisely, it will last for a long time.
11. Reduced consumption - above all, people will not be able to consume as much as they used to, and reduced consumption means reduced energy usage. Many people will be upset by this, but really, most of the consumption we do here is completely discretionary. You don't have to fly on vacation, or zip around the lake in a jetski, or drive to the mountains to ski. It sucks, I know, but all those things will be available to less and less people. Then again, the snow junkies craving for the fix can always carpool or take the shuttle bus :)
So here are my thoughts, based on my own experiences here as well as having lived through the collapse of one super-state already. People are adaptable creatures, and we will adapt. And who knows, 50 years from now when Russia and Saudi Arabia are sucking on the last bits of their oil, we will already have developed a nimble and energy-efficient infrastructure, ready to move to the future without having to burn oil for our mobility.