How I think it will play out

[eric_tse]

Contrary to many opinions that the sky is falling, I think the future will not be so bleak. The rising gas prices are actually strengthening my opinion, because they already force people to change their lifestyles despite the fact that gas is still pretty cheap here. So here it goes:

1. As the prices rise, the public transportation will start to

Comments

[incendiary_dan]

Okay, but care to address the cascading effects? Maybe some numbers? Not to shoot you down or anything, but it seems a bit naive to think these energy sources will be supplement enough to off-set much of our oil dependence. And that's only worrying about the first world, and not all the other countries in the world, which will be destabilized and war-torn, and will probably want to come after us for it.

I'm not saying it's all going to be doom and gloom, but that's just because I think the world will be much better off if we just get rid of civilization itself. The period in which it goes through death-throes, however, will be pretty rough, especially in cities.

[eric_tse]

These energy sources won't supplement anything - thats where reduced energy usage comes in. Our lifestyles will take a big hit, no question about that. I also think that civilization is fundamentally good, but it must be smart. Don't want to sound like communist (communism sucks) but I think it depends on people's education. Educated people will tend to make better long-term choices in life, which is better for everybody.
I don't buy your "problems in the cities" statement, because cities tend to concentrate power with a government, mafia boss, whatever - and evil as these things are, they are interested in some soft of public order. On the other hand, the country will be open to all kinds of lawlessness. You may protect your farm once or twice, but they'll get you eventually - its pretty easy to shoot a farmer in the back while he tries to work his land.

[incendiary_dan]

Your claims are historically unfounded. In the past, when civilizations have gone through collapse due to diminishing energy sources (and this definitely is a collapse, with all the tell-tale signs). People flock to the city, because they see it as the concentration of resources it is. These resources prove not to be enough. This over-burdens cities to the extreme, and the rapid increase of population density in places already too dense ends up meaning increases in violence, especially over the diminishing resources. Governments, crime bosses, and other aspiring power-mongers increasingly turn to violence and oppression as a way to control the population.

Your claims about the country are partially true, though. They do become "lawless", but the lack of law in fact creates a condition of far more order. Peoples' lives and standards of living improve as they take control of their own lives. The equation of law and order is about as fictitious as the medical research sponsored by tobacco companies.

[incendiary_dan]

Oh yea, meant to link you to http://anthropik.com/thirty/ for further reading. Not only does Godesky thoroughly cover a lot of areas, but he also gives a hefty bibliography with each essay.

[eric_tse]

The basic things that people need - food and sheleter - we have plenty of. We won't be able to go on with discretionary driving, but we'll still have gas for food trucks for a long-long time. Germans made gas from coal during WW2, and we can do the same. However if it comes to that, the gasoline will be severely rationed. I still don't believe we will be dying off like Anasazi, if that is what you implying.

[incendiary_dan]

The basic things that people need - food and sheleter - we have plenty of.No we don't, actually. Follow the news. Even with the large stores of staple foods that we have, we can't last long without more output from agriculture without there being some really turbulent times. Agriculture has produced less and less in the recent years, and will produce MUCH less when we don't have plentiful sources of oil to run tractors, planes, harvesters, trucks, etc. Farmers nationwide planted less corn this year. We ship in tons and tons of fertilizer to keep our farms from turning back into a Dustbowl, and that's really energy intensive. So no, we won't have enough gas for food trucks for "long-long time