How I think it will play out

[eric_tse]

Contrary to many opinions that the sky is falling, I think the future will not be so bleak. The rising gas prices are actually strengthening my opinion, because they already force people to change their lifestyles despite the fact that gas is still pretty cheap here. So here it goes:

1. As the prices rise, the public transportation will start to

Comments

[peristaltor]

A quick point: the hybrids operated by Metro and Sound Transit are not true hybrids, but diesel only. They do not use overhead lines, nor can they be "plugged in" to a non-diesel power source. Furthermore, they are only slightly more efficient than the buses without hybrid drives. If you can't plug it in, it ain't electric. (I know because I drive them.)

Another quickie: Hack a Miles to go faster, and you will hate life. The Miles car uses flooded lead-acid batteries. Drain floodies too fast too often and you will replace the pack in 2000 miles. (I learned that from my electric vehicle.)

And finally: The darkest days of the USSR collapse will prove a cakewalk compared to our US collapse. Since the old Soviet government was a bit inept at many things, the citizens tended to be more self-reliant. When things fell into the bin, as it were, many people were already in an excellent place to survive the transition. The same can most definitely not be said about folks in the US. (Source: interviews with Dmitri Orlov concerning his upcoming book Reinventing Collapse.)

I do agree most things will not be so bleak, but they will be different.

[eric_tse]

Thanks peristaltor for very interesting reply! I may be mistaken, but I think I saw buses ( the longer variety) on Eastside with the electrical poles on the roof, in the folded position. Since there are no overhead lines on Eastside, these buses obviously have diesel engines, and because they also have the electric poles, I concluded that when they go to Seattle they raise them up and use the lines. Am I mistaken?
Excellent point on the Miles car. We almost bought it, and I wasn't going to hack it. The turn-off for me was the price($18K is a bit too much for this kind of car - it should cost no more than $12K in my opinion. Also, since its not highway legal and it goes only up to 40, it is not possible to take in on the bridges across the lake. If they could make this car go at least 55, that would be ideal, but I guess above 40 they hitting some sort of a physical limit with the batteries.

[peristaltor]

When did you see the diesel bus with the folded poles? Metro stopped running them (the Italian-made Bredas) about three years ago. The poles were designed solely to power the bus through the downtown bus tunnel which used a different line voltage than the street wires. Those buses have since been modified to use the street voltage. Drivers now call them Frankenbredas.

$18K for a Miles?!? That is excessive. A neighbor has one. I've only glanced at it, but it did seem well put together. . . on the outside. Sadly, electric components are the pricey parts. That's where most electric vehicle makers skimp, choosing the flooded batteries and dc drive systems over safer tech. (I give the skinny on dc here). I'm at least glad the Miles uses ac.

Flooded batteries have high internal resistance and are really, really heavy, making it difficult to draw enough power from the batteries to overcome both the wind drag coefficient of the vehicle and any hills one might encounter at higher speeds. Pull too many amps from them and you just heat the electrolyte, bringing it to a boil if you're not careful.

Guys who have built conversions using floodies tell of pulling a long hill on the freeway, only to see the amps rise and the speed steadily drop.

[eric_tse]

Yes, I saw them in Bellevue about three years ago. Thanks for explaining! Regarding Miles car - the car itself is a Daihatsu, with electric engine. I believe they use gel batteries. The dealership is on Dearborn street, right off I90. Web site http://www.mcev.biz

[peristaltor]

Gel cells are an improvement in terms of internal resistance, but need to be watched for over charging and over draw. Boil that electrolyte and it just shoots out with no hope of replacement. That would explain why they're limited to under 40. Interesting.

[peristaltor]

I just checked the specs on the website. They use a "72V Advanced DC Series Wound" motor. That's a DC motor. No regen braking and a very good chance the thing will go runaway and require a Big Red Button.