Still a long way to go there, Nate.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Nate Silver?
Favorable 12%
Unfavorable 10%

Who do you trust more: the Gallup poll or Nate Silver?
Gallup poll 31%
Nate Silver 14%

PPPAnother interesting tidbit ( Read more... )

Nate Silver was rated one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time Magazine. In 2009.

Nate Silver has a book on predictions coming out.

For whatever reason, Daily Kos doesn't seem to be publishing its weekly summary of national polling any more, as it has on Saturdays prior to last week. I used Real Clear Politics data last week, but this week they seem to be missing two polls (which I found by obsessively reviewing the Daily Kos daily polling summaries for the last week). So today ( Read more... )

Gay Marriage Opponents Now in the Minority


( Read more... )

The odds against that, if the model had been specified correctly, were roughly one tredecillion (a 1 followed by 42 zeroes) to one.

-- Nate Silver, debunking yet another statistician doing perverted things with models.

Nate Silver, Budgetary Zugzwang

Try to find a winning move given this set of constraints imposed by public opinion...

Nate Silver posted his update today. I don't have much to say that isn't already in his commentary, except that I think his model is too pessimistic about Wisconsin ( Read more... )

...imagine the international terminal at JFK, but with even worse food and people walking by in giant tree costumes.

-- Nate Silver, describing the scene at the Copenhagen conference on climate change, where "the beer is cheaper than the Coca-Cola".

There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

-- Nate Silver, 538.comcommenting on their recent polling ( Read more... )

Intrade contract is (or was) up to 40%, in complete disagreement
with almost all economic forecasts.

Nate Silver analyzes what is going on

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/what-are-chances-of-depression.html