The Race for the Senate
Nate Silver posted his update today. I don't have much to say that isn't already in his commentary, except that I think his model is too pessimistic about Wisconsin.
Silver projects an 18% chance of Republicans ending up with 51 seats (counting Alaska's Murkowski, who is currently running as an Independent), up from 15% last week. Delaware was a blow to Republican chances, but it was more than made up for by what looks like a good chance of taking Wisconsin and a shot at West Virginia.
Again, you should ignore the Stochastic Democracy numbers, as they are weeks out of date. If I had known they wouldn't be updating their predictions I wouldn't have included them in the first place, but it's too much of a pain to remove them from my tables and code. And who knows, someday they may in fact update.
Just so you know, I always update my predictions before I look at the Intrade numbers or Silver's latest projections. My predictions are based on polling I've seen and news I've read.
The previous Senate projection is here.
Here's the totals. The first column in the projected net loss of Democratic Senate seats.
Net R+R+D+
JP 5.00 6.70 1.70
InTrade 5.85 7.40 1.55
Silver 6.65 7.45 0.80
StochDem 4.50 5.70 1.20
StateNowJPInTradeSilverStochDem
AR D 100% 95% 100% 100%
CA D 20% 40% 20% 10%
CO D 60% 70% 75% 65%
CT D 20% 25% 5% 0%
DE D 5% 20% 15% 10%
IL D 50% 40% 50% 25%
IN D 100% 90% 95% 100%
ND D 100% 100% 100% 100%
NV D 45% 45% 55% 30%
NY D 0% 0% 5% 0%
PA D 70% 85% 90% 80%
WA D 25% 40% 25% 30%
WI D 50% 50% 80% 20%
WV D 25% 40% 30% 0%
----
AK R 20% 30% 5% 0%
AZ R 5% 5% 5% 0%
FL R 30% 25% 25% 40%
IA R 5% 20% 0% 0%
KY R 25% 15% 10% 20%
LA R 0% 5% 5% 0%
MO R 25% 15% 5% 20%
NH R 35% 20% 15% 0%
NC R 15% 10% 5% 15%
OH R 10% 10% 5% 25%
Silver projects an 18% chance of Republicans ending up with 51 seats (counting Alaska's Murkowski, who is currently running as an Independent), up from 15% last week. Delaware was a blow to Republican chances, but it was more than made up for by what looks like a good chance of taking Wisconsin and a shot at West Virginia.
Again, you should ignore the Stochastic Democracy numbers, as they are weeks out of date. If I had known they wouldn't be updating their predictions I wouldn't have included them in the first place, but it's too much of a pain to remove them from my tables and code. And who knows, someday they may in fact update.
Just so you know, I always update my predictions before I look at the Intrade numbers or Silver's latest projections. My predictions are based on polling I've seen and news I've read.
The previous Senate projection is here.
Here's the totals. The first column in the projected net loss of Democratic Senate seats.
Net R+R+D+
JP 5.00 6.70 1.70
InTrade 5.85 7.40 1.55
Silver 6.65 7.45 0.80
StochDem 4.50 5.70 1.20
StateNowJPInTradeSilverStochDem
AR D 100% 95% 100% 100%
CA D 20% 40% 20% 10%
CO D 60% 70% 75% 65%
CT D 20% 25% 5% 0%
DE D 5% 20% 15% 10%
IL D 50% 40% 50% 25%
IN D 100% 90% 95% 100%
ND D 100% 100% 100% 100%
NV D 45% 45% 55% 30%
NY D 0% 0% 5% 0%
PA D 70% 85% 90% 80%
WA D 25% 40% 25% 30%
WI D 50% 50% 80% 20%
WV D 25% 40% 30% 0%
----
AK R 20% 30% 5% 0%
AZ R 5% 5% 5% 0%
FL R 30% 25% 25% 40%
IA R 5% 20% 0% 0%
KY R 25% 15% 10% 20%
LA R 0% 5% 5% 0%
MO R 25% 15% 5% 20%
NH R 35% 20% 15% 0%
NC R 15% 10% 5% 15%
OH R 10% 10% 5% 25%