Don't talk to anyone. Don't touch anyone.

[breakattiffanys]

Comments

[fairchilds]

I heard that after NYFF, Fassy's chances for Shame are really catching on! I'm so confused about everything right now, ESPECIALLY the girls' category. Also yes, ugh, please no George/Leo/Brad combo. Give someone else a fucking chance. I wished Ryan Gosling could have snuck in after the year he's had, but NO we must give George and Leo award noms again. Ugh

[breakattiffanys]

I just think Shame is going to be too out there for the Academy. Like, the way it's being described, I cannot imagine it will get anything other than an NC-17 in the U.S. I'm sure Fassy will some critical support but the film will have to perform like Black Swan in order to make it into the conversation for Oscar. And the Academy is not as crazy about nude men as it is about nude women lol

[fairchilds]

oh yeah what about Stephen Daldry and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close?

at this point i'm crossing my fingers and hoping that either Clint or Spielberg bomb.

[breakattiffanys]

If that movie is at all well-received, it's so in. Daldry is already loved by the Academy; they'll reward him if they have cause.

War Horse looks so boring and generic tbh. idk, at least J. Edgar might have some interesting Armie/Leo stuff (but from what I hear, it's more ~hinted~ than explicit).

[wendies]

Ooh I'm not sure how I feel about My Week With Marilyn. From watching the trailer, it kind of looks like a movie that should solely be on television. :/ But perhaps, once I actually watch the movie, I will feel differently eventually.

Oh I really want to see Ides of March! I have heard nothing but good things! And right now I'm about to watch Drive!

[breakattiffanys]

Yeah, it does look more like a TV movie. Other than its famous cast, I don't see anything special about it.

It was good! Very solid.

[visionsbeyond]

I'm also just not feeling Michelle Williams in the role. She just looks nothing like Marilyn and sounds nothing like her; it'll have to be an incredibly amazing performance just to be convincing.I`m so with you on this! Marilyn`s USP was her flirtatiousness, charm , her sex appeal - all three which Michelle lacks. She`s a great actress to be sure but she lacks the ability to play both - the fun + vulnerable side of Marilyn. I can see her doing the emotional stuff well but I don`t see capturing the character completely. But in the end this movie is sort of made for the oscars and it`s a Weinstein film so we can be assured it will get 5+ noms including Best Actress

[breakattiffanys]

Michelle is a great actress but she just doesn't really fit Marilyn at all, and sometimes even good actors can't overcome miscasting. Like she just seems like such a modern/gritty actress that it's really hard for me to believe her in this glamorous period setting.

I'm assuming that Viola Davis will easily get in if she is campaigned in lead. So yeah, that's Meryl, Glenn and Viola for the veterans. That leaves two spots for younger actresses - it'll be between Rooney Mara, Elizabeth Olsen, Michelle Williams and Keira I think. I can't say Keira's chances are good though cause her reviews are so divisive.

I've seen The Help, The Ides of March, Midnight in Paris so far. I still need to see Moneyball but I'm not that into sports movies.

[visionsbeyond]

okay cool :)

I still need to see Moneyball but I'm not that into sports movies.
ha ha that`s what I thought before watching 'The Fighter' last year but that was such a good movie! I really enjoyed it! :D

[breakattiffanys]

lol same here. I ended up liking The Fighter a lot more than I thought I would. Probably because I wasn't expecting much.

[fabfunk]

Ugh, I've seen a number of these potential nominees early, and they're all pretty fucking boring.

If anything, I think critical reception suggests Ides of March is a weak sister in the Best Picture race. And Martha Marcy May Marlene is a bit too out of the comfort zone of the Academy for them to give a nomination to Olsen, who is essentially playing scared in a horror movie.

Viola Davis is going out for lead. And she could actually win.

[breakattiffanys]

Is there any strong film out of the main contenders?

I agree that Ides of March's reception is kind of soft, but I just can't think of anything else that could potentially replace it at the moment. Everything I can think of that has real potential for acclaim seems too out there for the Academy.

I feel like there will be one Sundance darling getting in and Olsen seems more likely than Felicity Jones.

I don't see Davis winning in lead unless it's kind of by default (everyone else turn out to be disappointments), which I guess could happen...

[fabfunk]

You know, maybe I'm getting older, but this is the first year I didn't come out and predict the Oscars myself. I just feel so out of tune with what the Academy thinks. At the end of the summer, I figured, I have seen all my favorite 2011 releases already, and the early crop of "contenders" I have seen so far are so boring and centrist and style-less that I really don't know what to think about the significance of such an award

[breakattiffanys]

I've heard a lot about Woody Harrelson too but also that it seems like they're holding on to that for next year. I think Rachel Weisz and Tilda Swinton will get lost in the shuffle.