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fairchilds October 9 2011, 01:35:11 UTC
I heard that after NYFF, Fassy's chances for Shame are really catching on! I'm so confused about everything right now, ESPECIALLY the girls' category. Also yes, ugh, please no George/Leo/Brad combo. Give someone else a fucking chance. I wished Ryan Gosling could have snuck in after the year he's had, but NO we must give George and Leo award noms again. Ugh.

i wonder what Chastain will get nominated for. I think she's definitely in for at least something. Coriolanus maybe? That seems like the toughest material out of all the films she did this year. Also I do not buy the fact that Shailene Woodley is a revelation in The Descendants. Maybe she's better than her Secret Life crap but I'm still doubtful.

I'm really disappointed that again, Tilda Swinton's roles aren't catching fire. I thought there was some buzz too for Ezra Miller in supporting for We Need To Talk About Kevin? Also, I'm pretty sure that word is that Viola Davis is going for lead for The Help so she's probably a lock for a nomination.

Honestly I think it's too early to call a nom for Rooney Mara. They'll probably let in one ingenue this year though and it's probably between her and Elizabeth Olsen, but Elizabeth Olsen has had build-up throughout the year. Shame that Martha Mary ... screened at Sundance and she got the most buzz out of all of it and Felicity Jones who actually won an award, didn't.

Also, I heard that The Devil's Double is amazing and Dominic Cooper got rave reviews for his role. And the film is getting pretty positive reviews. Not perfect, but it seems like a showy enough role. I wonder why Lionsgate isn't pushing this film for him.

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breakattiffanys October 9 2011, 01:46:55 UTC
I just think Shame is going to be too out there for the Academy. Like, the way it's being described, I cannot imagine it will get anything other than an NC-17 in the U.S. I'm sure Fassy will some critical support but the film will have to perform like Black Swan in order to make it into the conversation for Oscar. And the Academy is not as crazy about nude men as it is about nude women lol.

I don't think Chastain is substantial enough in Coriolanus. It'll either be The Help (if Viola goes lead) or Take Shelter. Who knows, she might get snubbed altogether. I wouldn't be surprised.

I know, it sucks about Tilda but her films are always a little too outside the mainstream it seems. And the films' overall reviews are just not as strong as the reviews for her actual performance. So yeah, if Viola is lead, then that seals up one nomination for sure.

The thing is - Dragon Tattoo is almost guaranteed to be a box office success while MMMM has to work pretty hard to get noticed outside the indie market. There's room for two ingenues, I think, but definitely not three. And out of the three, I think Mara and Olsen have the best shots. Jones' film is going to be seen as too (500) Days of Summer-ish by the Academy I think.

The Devil's Double already opened here and barely did anything business.. so yeah, I don't think it's happening. The reviews were also kind of middling on the film itself and I don't think Cooper is getting in with this kind of competition. (Descendants, Ides, Shame, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor having all gotten good reviews already for their leads)

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