You know, maybe I'm getting older, but this is the first year I didn't come out and predict the Oscars myself. I just feel so out of tune with what the Academy thinks. At the end of the summer, I figured, I have seen all my favorite 2011 releases already, and the early crop of "contenders" I have seen so far are so boring and centrist and style-less that I really don't know what to think about the significance of such an award.
I also think the widening of nominees has changed the Oscar race in that some campaigns can pick up a second wind. A lot of movies are going to pick up a second wind by hitting the DVD circuit, like Tree of Life or Warrior or even Drive, as far as Albert Brooks' performance.
As far as actors, I think Brad Pitt is gonna earn a lot of Moneyball chatter, and Fassbender will be a popular dark horse for Shame, though I would like to see Michael Shannon break through- his work in Take Shelter is the best performance I've seen all year.
Best Actress is awfully crowded, though. I think Swinton will have her admirers, but she's a tough sell. And a lot of people are discussing Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea as being a serious contender. It's still only October.
For Supporting categories, I think the Carnage group could show up in there. I also think Moneyball might get Phil Hoffman in there, and if Rampart comes this year, Woody Harrelson might sneak in, I hear he's real good in that (though I think he might be the lead in that).
Vanessa Redgrave is the odds-on bet to win Best Supporting Actress. Haven't seen that movie yet, though.
I've heard a lot about Woody Harrelson too but also that it seems like they're holding on to that for next year. I think Rachel Weisz and Tilda Swinton will get lost in the shuffle.
I also think the widening of nominees has changed the Oscar race in that some campaigns can pick up a second wind. A lot of movies are going to pick up a second wind by hitting the DVD circuit, like Tree of Life or Warrior or even Drive, as far as Albert Brooks' performance.
As far as actors, I think Brad Pitt is gonna earn a lot of Moneyball chatter, and Fassbender will be a popular dark horse for Shame, though I would like to see Michael Shannon break through- his work in Take Shelter is the best performance I've seen all year.
Best Actress is awfully crowded, though. I think Swinton will have her admirers, but she's a tough sell. And a lot of people are discussing Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea as being a serious contender. It's still only October.
For Supporting categories, I think the Carnage group could show up in there. I also think Moneyball might get Phil Hoffman in there, and if Rampart comes this year, Woody Harrelson might sneak in, I hear he's real good in that (though I think he might be the lead in that).
Vanessa Redgrave is the odds-on bet to win Best Supporting Actress. Haven't seen that movie yet, though.
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