CMC and NAM. GFS/GFDL hasn't picked up on it (yet?). GFS forecasts high shear over the middle gulf, but temps are WAY HIGH and a quickly building storm generates its own anticyclone. So GFS wouldn't pick up on the downturn in shear until it saw the storm form, which it might not do until the shear goes down, which it might not do until the storm...
We'll see. That model looked awfully fast to me, in terms of formation and motion. But then that's definitely what you'd expect to see this time of year. Didn't look too strong in terms of pressure/winds, but one of those early-season bad boys can put down a ton of rain. (I remember Alberto coming right through the Destin Pass maybe 10 years ago and causing big-time flooding in AL and GA.)
pretty colors = low pressure system as you prgress toward blue. press fwd to see animation. = one model forceasted a hurricane here 5 days. new models runs are out, modify track.
Comments 11
Reply
Yeah.
Reply
I expect that you have an exciting summer ahead.
Reply
Reply
sevant.
Reply
Reply
Reply
viewable at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Leave a comment