Nelson said the astronauts now faced a four times greater risk than normal with the ISS passing near or through the debris cloud every 90 minutes.
His assessment was based on the risk from debris big enough to track. But hundreds of thousands of smaller pieces were going undetected - “any one of which can do enormous damage if it hits in the right place”.
Характерная формулировка без конкретной цифры - "в четыре раза больше чем нормально". Если бы речь шла хотя бы о одной сотой он бы не приминул ее назвать и сравнить скажем с комидом.
Limiting future collision risk to spacecraft an assessment of NASAs meteoroid and orbital debris programs by National Research Council (U.S.). - порядка одной миллионной частицы 1-10 см на м2
MASS DISTRIBUTION OF ORBITING MAN-MADE SPACE DEBRIS T. Dale Bess
most fragments were irregularly shaped, flat plates. About 15 percent had a length-width ratio of approximately 5. The other 85 percent had a length-width ratio of about 2. In both cases the thickness was about one-fourth the width.
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His assessment was based on the risk from debris big enough to track. But hundreds of thousands of smaller pieces were going undetected - “any one of which can do enormous damage if it hits in the right place”.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-anti-satellite-weapon-test
Характерная формулировка без конкретной цифры - "в четыре раза больше чем нормально". Если бы речь шла хотя бы о одной сотой он бы не приминул ее назвать и сравнить скажем с комидом.
Limiting future collision risk to spacecraft an assessment of NASAs meteoroid and orbital debris programs by National Research Council (U.S.). - порядка одной миллионной частицы 1-10 см на м2
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https://www.nap.edu/read/5532/chapter/6#30
FIGURE 4-2 Effectiveness of Whipple bumper derivatives at various impactor velocities. Source: NASA.
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MASS DISTRIBUTION OF ORBITING MAN-MADE SPACE DEBRIS T. Dale Bess
most fragments were irregularly shaped, flat plates. About 15 percent had a length-width ratio of approximately 5. The other 85 percent had a length-width ratio of about 2. In both cases the thickness was about one-fourth the width.
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