Oil Depletion Rate - Exponential Decay
What exactly will be the oil depletion rate?
Let's look at a few simple numbers. We will start with a few assumptions:
1. The global world extraction rate never exceeds the 84.7 million barrels per day. (1)
2. The total proven oil reserves are 1.2 trillion barrels.
3. Once the plateau ends, the decline rate is constant, i.e. exponential or geometric.
4. The production plateau ends now.
Given these assumptions, the decline rate would be approximately 2.5%.
What would the supply look like with this constant and steady decline rate?
2008 - 82.6 mbpd - 98% of max
2009 - 80.5 mbpd - 95% of max
2010 - 78.5 mbpd - 93% of max
2015 - 69.2 mpbd - 82% of max
2020 - 60.9 mbpd - 72% of max
2025 - 53.7 mbpd - 63% of max
2030 - 47.3 mbpd - 56% of max
2035 - 41.7 mbpd - 49% of max
The oil supply would be under 50% of in less than 30 years.
(An endowment of 1.2 trillion barrels of oil is could be stated as "39 years of oil at the current rate of production".)
There are other possible depletion rates.
Consider a 10% rate of decline. This is the depletion rate of some of the larger oil fields such as Prudhoe Bay, Cantrall, and Burgan.
2008 - 76.2 mbpd - 90%
2009 - 68.6 mbpd - 81%
2010 - 61.7 mbpd - 73%
2015 - 36.5 mbpd - 43%
2020 - 21.5 mbpd - 25%
2025 - 12.7 mbpd - 15%
2030 - 7.5 mbpd - 9%
2035 - 4.4 mbpd - 5%
At this 10% decline rate, the supply would be cut in half in seven years. In this case, the total oil to be pumped would be equal to nine years at the maximum rate. The total amount produced would be only 0.28 trillion barrels, well short of the 1.2 trillion estimate.
On the other extreme, if CERA were correct with their assertion that 3.74 trillion barrels would be eventually extracted, then things look better. If the decline were to begin now, the rate could be as low as 0.8%. This would still allow over 80% production by the year 2035. The equivalent statistic would be "124 years, at present rates of production".
What can we conclude about the decline of oil production from these observations?
Notes
(1) Moving average of previous 12-months world oil production, based on EIA data. The maximum thus far was 84.678 mbpd average for the 12-months from March 2006 to February 2006. The next highest was 84.663 mbpd from November 2005 to October 2006. The data for the moving average indicates a plateau. The moving average first achieved ~84 (83.937) mbpd for the 12-month period of May, 2004 to April 2005. Generally, the plateau began in the summer of 2004. See file "t14 peak oil according to EIA.xls".
(2) See file "depletion rate for various quantiteis.xls" for calculations.
References
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil/Table_of_largest_oil_fields
Related Articles
December Series - Up to Date Analysis
Why are Gas Prices Rising?
Peak Oil - Oil Prices in an Era of Plateau
Peak Oil - Accurately Predicting Oil Prices & The Value of Oil
World Oil Production Extraction Supply Plateau Charts - December 2007
Oil Depletion Rate - Exponential Decay
Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation -- Original Article that spawned the December Series
Big Picture Series
Peak Oil and the Vision in the Mirror
Your Life or The Planet's? Battling Human Nature from Inside-Out
Peak Oil - Films to Wake the Sleeping!
Let's look at a few simple numbers. We will start with a few assumptions:
1. The global world extraction rate never exceeds the 84.7 million barrels per day. (1)
2. The total proven oil reserves are 1.2 trillion barrels.
3. Once the plateau ends, the decline rate is constant, i.e. exponential or geometric.
4. The production plateau ends now.
Given these assumptions, the decline rate would be approximately 2.5%.
What would the supply look like with this constant and steady decline rate?
2008 - 82.6 mbpd - 98% of max
2009 - 80.5 mbpd - 95% of max
2010 - 78.5 mbpd - 93% of max
2015 - 69.2 mpbd - 82% of max
2020 - 60.9 mbpd - 72% of max
2025 - 53.7 mbpd - 63% of max
2030 - 47.3 mbpd - 56% of max
2035 - 41.7 mbpd - 49% of max
The oil supply would be under 50% of in less than 30 years.
(An endowment of 1.2 trillion barrels of oil is could be stated as "39 years of oil at the current rate of production".)
There are other possible depletion rates.
Consider a 10% rate of decline. This is the depletion rate of some of the larger oil fields such as Prudhoe Bay, Cantrall, and Burgan.
2008 - 76.2 mbpd - 90%
2009 - 68.6 mbpd - 81%
2010 - 61.7 mbpd - 73%
2015 - 36.5 mbpd - 43%
2020 - 21.5 mbpd - 25%
2025 - 12.7 mbpd - 15%
2030 - 7.5 mbpd - 9%
2035 - 4.4 mbpd - 5%
At this 10% decline rate, the supply would be cut in half in seven years. In this case, the total oil to be pumped would be equal to nine years at the maximum rate. The total amount produced would be only 0.28 trillion barrels, well short of the 1.2 trillion estimate.
On the other extreme, if CERA were correct with their assertion that 3.74 trillion barrels would be eventually extracted, then things look better. If the decline were to begin now, the rate could be as low as 0.8%. This would still allow over 80% production by the year 2035. The equivalent statistic would be "124 years, at present rates of production".
What can we conclude about the decline of oil production from these observations?
Notes
(1) Moving average of previous 12-months world oil production, based on EIA data. The maximum thus far was 84.678 mbpd average for the 12-months from March 2006 to February 2006. The next highest was 84.663 mbpd from November 2005 to October 2006. The data for the moving average indicates a plateau. The moving average first achieved ~84 (83.937) mbpd for the 12-month period of May, 2004 to April 2005. Generally, the plateau began in the summer of 2004. See file "t14 peak oil according to EIA.xls".
(2) See file "depletion rate for various quantiteis.xls" for calculations.
References
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil/Table_of_largest_oil_fields
Related Articles
December Series - Up to Date Analysis
Why are Gas Prices Rising?
Peak Oil - Oil Prices in an Era of Plateau
Peak Oil - Accurately Predicting Oil Prices & The Value of Oil
World Oil Production Extraction Supply Plateau Charts - December 2007
Oil Depletion Rate - Exponential Decay
Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation -- Original Article that spawned the December Series
Big Picture Series
Peak Oil and the Vision in the Mirror
Your Life or The Planet's? Battling Human Nature from Inside-Out
Peak Oil - Films to Wake the Sleeping!