Comments | twc_aficionados: TD 1 - Official NHC 5 Day "Cone of Uncertainty"

cieldumort in twc_aficionados

TD 1 - Official NHC 5 Day "Cone of Uncertainty"

Jun 10, 2006 13:06

Overnight it became apparent that at least two competing low-level circulations (LLCs) had formed, and several models have even suggested that TD1 breaks in two, with one circulation heading NE toward Florida, and the other generally WNW towards Tx. This would certainly be an interesting evolution in what NHC is tracking as "one" system. The text ( Read more... )

models, tropical cyclones, atlantic basin, tropical storm alberto, 2006 atlantic hurricane season, invests

Comments 8

cixel June 10 2006, 20:08:02 UTC

we were at the tropical ag fiesta at the miami-dade fruit and spice park today and a squall line came through with wind and rain and started messing up the tents. amazing so early in the season. cant wait to see whats in store in a month or so!

cieldumort June 10 2006, 20:19:59 UTC

Yeah. Florida gets so many tropical thunderstorms, even without tropical cyclones moving through. Heavenly weather for a guys like us. Texas was that way in 2004, but has since slid back into drought - especially this far inland.

Climatologically, June being a still-unfavorable month, I am finding it especially interesting that we may indeed break the every-other-year a named storm during the month of June guidance, having had a Arlene form during June of last year.

No doubt about it, the Atlantic continues to be in the throws of a very active phase, if not long-term trend. You've read up on the recent research by Emanuel & Mann, yes?

cixel June 10 2006, 20:22:12 UTC

no i dont think i have. link? i hope we get some more squall lines out of it before this depression dissipates.

cieldumort June 10 2006, 20:33:28 UTC

Not so sure that the depression dissipates, although I am still of the opinion that this - thing - is still only a marginal tropical depression. I really do see reason to believe that it may split in two, with one half, probably ending up being a stronger half, going northeast and the other generally meandering or heading our way.

The study was the one you had posted about regarding "cleaner" air causing more hurricanes. Like this article: http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20060605/hurricane_pla.html

Calling the air "cleaner" just because aerosols are down is so misleading. Aerosols are down, but C02/ greenhouse gases are up. Journalists!

cixel June 11 2006, 02:19:37 UTC

your too optimistic the depression looks like shit

cieldumort June 11 2006, 03:52:06 UTC

How in the world did you come to the conclusion that I am feeling at all optimistic about this thing?

I'm personally of the opinion that it hardly qualifies as a tropical depression, at all. Frankly, I can even make an argument that system which dumped up to a foot and a half of rain along parts of the Texas coast week before last was more of a true depression than .. whatever this currently is.

major7 June 11 2006, 05:41:17 UTC

Howdy.
Thought I would join in to see what goes on here.

cieldumort June 11 2006, 05:48:16 UTC

Howdy, partner! Nice to see more fellow Texans (you still qualify, you know!) in here! ;)