War with Iran (is not going to happen)

[tongodeon]

Every so often in one of my friends mentions something about going to war with Iran, so I am posting this to link back to later. Short answer: I think this is very unlikely for several reasons

Comments

[mmcirvin]

Huh. I haven't heard anyone even suggest the possibility of a land invasion. It's so obviously impossible.

Most of the time, when people talk about "the war drums starting up again", etc. they're talking about air strikes, with no possibility of meaningful follow-through. The possibilities that worry me are the kinds of things Seymour Hersh was warning about a while back, that Bush might try some sort of massive air barrage intended as a decapitation strike against the Iranian government (since, you know, this approach has been so successful in the past), or that he'll attempt the kind of gigantic air strikes necessary to actually put the nuke sites out of commission for a while, or (getting into the really paranoid-sounding possibilities here) that he might even use nuclear weapons.

Objections to the plausibility of these actions on the grounds that they would be spectacularly, obviously stupid convince me less than they used to.

What is a little more convincing to me is that he hasn't done these things already, despite

[mcfnord]

Who was that awesome Congress guy trying to make out with the pages? That guy effing ruled.

"shock and awe" makes me wonder. I see the shock part, but then the awe part, what's that? Awe, man, sweet guided conventional bombing of an urban target. Awe-some, America.

Israel might do some of the work. I'm kind of surprised that nukes can be made in secret or impenetrable bunkers.

Today's NYT had a full-page specifying the position of all major candidates for president, opposing a nuclear Iran. But last week they features Al Bardai, of the IAEA, and honestly I'm curious how that man evaluates Iran's claim that their program is a technical matter. Is it unreasonable to believe that the IAEA could both detect and prevent the necessary enrichment program? So Iran and the UN may well have a peaceful path to assuring there are no nukes in Iran. Of course the same guy said Iran has no homosexuals so he is obviously a sneaky creep.

[glaucon]

"why do homosexuals keep sucking my cock?????"

[veritatem]

doesn't not declaring it a war prevent veterans from receiving benefits of some sort too? or is that just an urban legend perpetuated by my awesome AP US history teacher in high school?

[palecur]

a military action that Congress authorized.

Is this not equivalent in every way but the label, though? It was my understanding that 'congressionally authorized military action' pretty much maps to 'war'.

[glaucon]

Congress is certainly not signing another authorization of military action.


then again, maybe they will.

of course, that fuck lieberman says that it's current wording was a toned down version intended to address public concern that the original constituted a declaration of war. but I dunno...formally declaring another country's armed services to be a terrorist organization and stating that "it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran...[and] to support the prudent and calibrated use of all instruments of United States national power in Iraq, including diplomatic, economic, intelligence, and military instruments..." sure sounds like they're willing to authorize the hell out of something.

but hey, I'm sure the democrats will keep things under control. especially the ones who joined in to pass it with a 76 to 22 majority.

[agentelrond]

Not only would Congress not sign another AUMF, I think they'd go so far as to withhold funds if Bush went forward without their okay. (Constitutionally, the Prez is at his highest power when controlling troops already out on the field, but when it comes to sending them in the first place, it's a lot more fuzzy and Congress would appear to have the upper hand.)

The other major problem I'd see with attacking Iran is that it does have a relatively educated and moderate population, but like America after 9/11, any significant attack on Iran would lead to a rally-around-the-mullah effect and kill any sympathy or pro-American sentiment that exists among the Iranian population (especially the younger ones).