Ukraine hovering at the knife's edge
Ukrainian soldiers guard a military installation in Crimea (Reuters/Gazeta.ru)
As I was writing it, we went from a news that could mean war to something more resembling peaceful footing. BBC and several other sources reporting that Russian Black Sea fleet has given an ultimatum for all Ukrainian forces in Crimea that haven't already surrendered or defected to surrender by 5:00 AM Crimea time (9:00 PM US Central time) or be attacked. Less than an hour later, the Black Sea Fleet denied ever giving an ultimatum, calling it "utter nonsense."
Could be that they changed their minds. Could be that someone lied, or someone screwed up. As my people would say, devil only knows.
What we do know is that "polite armed men" as Crimeans have taken to calling masked gunmen, have continued taking over Ukrainian military objects that aren't part of the Ukrainian Navy. Belbek airport, a largely military airport in Sevastopol, was taken over earlier today (Crimean time). The soldiers surrendered it because, according to the report, they weren't given orders to fight back. The base of Kerchetskiy Sea Border Patrol was taken over not long after, though in this case, Ukrainian forces still have control of the weapons caches on the base.
The same article reports that Ukraine's Border Patrol Service is saying that there's been a build-up of armored vehicles on the Russian side of the Crimea-Caucasus ferry. And there's word that ships from Baltic and North fleets are moving toward Black Sea. Finally, the article says Ukrainian border patrol members accuse Russian forces of using "physical and moral violence" to pressure them into surrendering.
Elsewhere on the peninsula, Gazeta.ru reports that, after some negotiations, Autonomous Republic of Crimea Supreme Council pledged to give Crimean Tatars a pretty juicy carrot - $22 million in aid and some high ranking posts in ARC government (namely Deputy Prime Minister, two ministers and and a few deputy ministers of other, unspecified ministries). Crimean Tatars have been weary of both the Russians and the ARC's ruling party, where some of the more right-leaning members have questioned the legitimacy of Crimean Tatar government bodies, and this could go a long way towards mollifying their concerns.
Meanwhile, the value of Russian ruble has plummeted, and Russian stocks have dropped in value. Ukrainian currency hasn't been too well, either. Financial analysis Alexey Yegorov told The Village online newspaper that the value will probably keep dropping until/unless the situation in Crimea/Ukraine stabilizes. Thing is, Russia is in the better financial shape than Ukraine is, so the trend is going to hurt Ukraine far more than it will hurt Russia.
In Moscow, the Russian government has launched legal proceedings against Right Sector head Dmitriy Yarosh for urging Chechen separatists to launched attacks against Russia back on Saturday. As I've written before, the Right Sector has been urging Ukrainian government to retake Crimea. There are persistant rumors that Right Sector is training its militias in anticipation of the Russian invasion of the mainland. And just today, Right Sector announced that it will become a full-fledged political party.
Speaking of politics - Rockomnadzor, an agency that regulates communication industries in Russia, including the Internet - has blocked access VKontakte pages for 13 groups that supported Maidan protests. VKontakte, for those who don't know, is that largest social network in Russia and is basically a Facebook clone. The block only extends to Russian Federation - people in Ukraine and elsewhere can still access them. The official reason for that block are predictable - (non-Russian) nationalism, inciting terrorist threats. And while they may have a point with Right Sector and other Ukrainian right-wing groups, several moderate groups were blocked as well.
Finally, Gazeta.ru did a pretty good feature piece where one of its journalists took the bus from eastern Ukrainian city of Dnepropetrovsk to Simferopol - currently the only form of public transit running between the peninsula and the Ukrainian mainland. It's a long piece, and I wish I had time to translate it. But, to summarize, reporters Vladimir Dergachev and Servgey Zimchenko find the population divided about the current Ukrainian government. Some oppose it, some hesitantly support it (in hopes that they'll be able to do something about widespread corruption), and there's plenty cynicism about whether or not any change could happen. One interviewee felt that, no matter who's in power in Kiev, the same people will be in charge on the local level and nothing will change. A lot of people are weary of nationalists, and nobody seems to like either deposed President Yanukovich or the Party of Regions - not even people who don't like the current government.
There's one quote I would like to translate. Towards the end, in the response to a Crimean radio broadcast talked about the need to return Yanukovich to power to restore stability, one of the drivers was quoted as saying the following.
"We should give Yanukovich to Russia. Let him be your Prime Minister - he'll build [an estate] the size of Moscow! And Yulia [Timoshenko] can go over there, too. When they loot the place and run off, you'll be complaining to Europe and demanding extradition.