Ukrainian Crisis: A calm - but will there be storm?
Russian and Ukrainian ships face off (via Navigator)
"Calm" might seem like a weird word to describe what's going on in Crimea. Russian troops continue to arrive and "polite armed men" continue to try to take over a shrinking number of Ukrainian military installations that haven't surrendered/defected already. Russian Black Sea Fleet ships have surrounded Ukrainian Navy ships that haven't defected. Forces appear to be beefing up defenses at the strip of land that connects Crimea to Ukrainian mainland.
And yet, oddly enough, I feel more at ease than I did last Thursday and Friday (has it really been less than seven days since the Crimean Crisis started? It feels longer than that). At the time, the prospect of "polite armed men" popping up in Eastern Ukraine, local governments seceding, Russian troops rushing in seems likely. I still wouldn't rule out any of those things happening somewhere down the line, but for now, Russia seems content with Crimea.
We do have some news bits.
Navigator reported (and BBC News later picked up on) that a group of Ukrainian Air Force soldiers marched toward the Belbek military airport in Sevastopol. As they approached, PAM forces fired warning shots into the air. After an armed send-off, PAM agreed to let the airport's civilian employees in. The PAM commander warned Ukrainians that if there were "further attempts at provocation," his soldiers will fire warning shots at the Ukrainians' feet.
Two interesting bits from this article. PAM commander said he was a Sevastopol resident and a former law enforcement officer, with further feeds into the evidence that at least some PAM units are Berkut riot police members. And he also confirmed that PAM has authorization to shoot any attackers "to kill." Quite who the orders are coming from are not clear. I mean, Autonomous Republic of Crimea Prime Minister claimed PAM are taking orders from his government at the moment, but Sevastopol isn't part of ARC (at least in the legal sense), so...
Speaking of PAM membership, BBC got a quote from another PAM member saying that he was part of the Russian forces stationed in Sevastopol, which adds fuel to the theory that, in spite of official denials, Russian forces make up the other part of PAM.
The only privately run TV station on Crimea was shut down yesterday. The official reason was safety concerns.
Gazeta.ru did another pretty good feature piece (which, again, I unfortunately don't have time to translate) about how residents of Simferopol, ARC's capital city, feel about the crisis. Unlike residents of eastern Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of people that spoke to Gazeta.ru support ARC government and are pro-Russian to some extent or another. There's a great deal of mistrust toward non-Russian journalists. The only people who supported Ukraine's current government in any way are Crimean Tatars. The article also indicates that Crimean Tatar officials are hesitating to accept the pretty juicy proverbial carrot ARC government offered them yesterday.
Gazeta.ru has also done something rare - outright challenged information coming from Russian state-run government sources. Over the past few days, state media outlets - particularly Channel 1 - have been talking about refugee crisis as hundreds of thousands of eastern Ukrainians fled east and north, to Russia. Gazeta.ru sent reporters down to the regions bordering Ukraine and found no actual evidence that movements between the borders are any different from normal.
For a second day in a row, there was an anti-war protest in Moscow. 250 people assembled. The protest was quickly broken up, and 30 people currently remain in custody.
Russia has made several very predictable moves. Gasprom, Russia's state-owned natural gas supplier, said that the discount it gave Ukraine back in November (when then-president Yanukovich agreed not to sign the EU treaty) will end in April. The current Ukrainian government has resigned itself to this turn of event days ago, and now the ax has dropped. Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs has threatened sanctions against US if levies sanctions against Russia, which again, is an utterly predictable response.
Less expected was Putin's decision to end military exercises that have been taking place near Ukrainian border since shortly after the new government came to power. The official line is that the decision was made yesterday, after Putin got the report that the exercises went well.
And, in a final link to Gazeta.ru, the online newspaper did a feature on how people of Vilnius, the capital city of Lithuania, are feeling about the crisis. Suffice to say, pretty much all them are worried about Russia invading Ukrainian mainland, and that it will keep going. The article also mentions that in Belarus, the opinion is split pretty much 50/50.
As I was writing this post, I kept checking the news. So far, the not-quite calm has been holding. But that could all change the second anyone - Russians, Ukrainians or PAM forces - opens fire. I don't think that's something either side wants - since whoever fires the first shot would be responsible for starting a war - but the danger is still there.
To quote one of my mom's favorite sayings - which has become something of a motto for me - I hope for the best and prepare for the worse.