Indecisive? Isreal?

[slamlander]

There is now a debate in Isreal on how to proceed. What they've been following is a doctrine I outline here, but there are new complications. In short, Hezbollah has placed tactical and strategic assets within villages and then prevents the villagers from evacuating, even at gunpoint, using them as a human shield to protect those assets and

Comments

[loosechanj]

All they have to do is play whack-a-mole with Hezbollah rocket launchers until a Lebanese army can step in. But in order to let that happen they have to weaken Hezbollah enough such that the Lebanese army is able to step in.

The problem with that idea is that the Lebanese army is overwhelmingly Shi'a, and most likely wouldn't lift a finger to fight Hezbollah, which is also Shi'a.

[slamlander]

As long as the army is wholly answerable to a responsible government, one that is willing and able to reign in and discipline rogue commanders, it doesn' matter. In the current sit-pic Nassrallah is completely rogue and Beirut cannot call him in.

[loosechanj]

As long as the army is wholly answerable to a responsible government, one that is willing and able to reign in and discipline rogue commanders, it doesn' matter.

How wonderful it would be to live in an ideal world, yes.

[slamlander]

In the real world,if you do not follow the orders of your commander you will be shot. Nassrallah, unilaterally starting a war an being a complete rogue about it is either the real Lebanese government or the Lebanese government should be trying to shoot him. The fact that the Lebanese President is supporting him, possibly in spite of the will of the people, says loads to the International community. Even money says that he will be shot dead before the year is out, Nassrallah may take a little longer.

I think they don't use their own supporters there.

[real_skeptic]

Bint Jbeil itself had only a population of about 4000 at the time, and I'm not sure the civilians they are using are really Shiite. Oh, and you forgot that they also use UN people as shields - quite successfully, ask Kofi Anan.

Anyway, I don't believe anything will be accomplished without ground forces. It just doesn't work. No army - Lebanese, UN, Israeli, whoever - can take over an area that has not been cleared out of the enemy. And so far our air strikes and artillery strikes proved absolutely useless against the rocket launchers and missile stocks. We get the same average number of rockets on our heads every day - about a 100 a day. There is no decline in that number

Re: I think they don't use their own supporters there.

[slamlander]

Yes agree, Israel is fighting a double-standard there. It's unfair but there it is

Nukes? Now you've really lost it.

[real_skeptic]

Or perhaps you don't realize that the Israeli side of the border is all the way up to the border. The fields are being worked all the way up to the patrol road, which means 2 meters from the border. In fact, one of the more stunning features of our borders is the sharp change in color from one side of the border to the other

That was me trying to be humerous

[slamlander]

and failing :(

Yeah, I heard the NATO rumour too. The problem is that Israel is not a member, although I was very surprised to find that both Turkey and Greece were. It's possible that NATO forces would be looked at the same as US Forces. However, NATO has a much better track record than the UN.

Yeah, I noted that in the satellite pix. Lots of green, right up to the border. I guess that you don't have many rabid ecologists there :).

I wouldn't bet on US goals being all that stable. A lot depends on what happens this November.

[ozanbaba]

don't forget Israil can kill some poeple there, but this wil not really stop Hizbullah from rocket attacts.

however assinating top branch of Hizbullah is a good idea