The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is not a nice guy.
Nor is he much of a supporter of democratic processes.
But...
He did control the Armed Forces, and had something approaching control of the ISI (Pakistan's intelligence agency). But, hey, can't tolerate those not-nice anti-democratic tendencies.
And now, he's losing his grip.
So much so that the ISI is now totally out of control, as are elements of the Army in the Federal Autonomous Tribal Areas which border Afghanistan.
The result?
On the Pakistani border
By Richard Fernandez
An attack on a US combat outpost killed 9 men in Kunar province, Afghanistan. Kunar province is in the northeastern corner of Afghanistan on the Pakistani border. It is predominantly Pashtun, and has been called Pashtunistan. CNN reports that:
Though details of the attack were sparse, an earlier statement from ISAF said Afghan and ISAF soldiers were involved in “heavy fighting” with insurgents at a command outpost in Kunar province.
“Insurgents have been firing at the [command outpost] with small arms, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars, using homes, shops and the mosque in the village of Wanat for cover,” according to the statement.
ISAF and Afghan soldiers, backed by air support, responded with small arms, machine guns, mortars and artillery, the statement said.
The village of Wanat, according to the weather site Falling Rain is located at Lat (DMS) 35° 3′ 8N Long (DMS) 70° 54′ 26E at an altitude of 1282 meters - about 4,200 feet. Google maps shows it to be up a narrow valley surrounded by peaks a 1,000 feet higher on three sides, some of the surrounding high ground is less than a mile away. If this were the true situation, it would explain how RPGs and mortars might be effective against the outpost. This is all speculation based on map reading. We should wait for more news before drawing any further conclusions.
The consequences?
US troops poised to cross Afghan border for raid on bases
From The Times [of London]
By Zahid Hussain in Islamabad
US troops in Afghanistan massed close to the border yesterday for a possible attack on al-Qaeda and Taleban bases in the lawless North Waziristan tribal belt in Pakistan.
Reports from the area said that hundreds of Nato troops were airlifted across the mountains from the village of Lowara Mandi, which has been an important base for cross-border attacks in Afghanistan. Heavy artillery and armoured vehicles were also being moved into position.
The deployment followed a claim by the Afghan Government on Monday that the Pakistani Army and its spy agency had become “the world's biggest producers of terrorism and extremism”. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry accused Kabul of creating an “artificial crisis to satisfy short-term political expediencies”.
President Bush said yesterday that the US would investigate the Afghan claims to “get to the bottom of the allegation”. He said that he was troubled by the movement of extremists from Pakistan into Afghanistan.
“I certainly hope that the [Pakistani] Government understands the dangers of extremists moving in their country,” Mr Bush said.Tensions have been heightened since the deaths of nine soldiers on Sunday when insurgents overran a US base in Kunar province, close to the Pakistani border.
Western commanders say there has been a marked increase in cross-border infiltration in the past few months, fuelling the insurgency in Afghanistan. Nato troops have clashed with Pakistani units along the South Waziristan border.
US Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made an announced visit to Islamabad at the weekend and held a series of meetings with Pakistan's top civil and military leadership.
According to well-placed sources, Admiral Mullen warned Pakistan that the US could take unilateral military action if the cross-border attacks in Afghanistan were not stopped. The US official said that some elements within Pakistani security agencies could be helping the insurgents operate from their bases in the border region.
The times they are about to get even more interesting.
Nor is he much of a supporter of democratic processes.
But...
He did control the Armed Forces, and had something approaching control of the ISI (Pakistan's intelligence agency). But, hey, can't tolerate those not-nice anti-democratic tendencies.
And now, he's losing his grip.
So much so that the ISI is now totally out of control, as are elements of the Army in the Federal Autonomous Tribal Areas which border Afghanistan.
The result?
On the Pakistani border
By Richard Fernandez
An attack on a US combat outpost killed 9 men in Kunar province, Afghanistan. Kunar province is in the northeastern corner of Afghanistan on the Pakistani border. It is predominantly Pashtun, and has been called Pashtunistan. CNN reports that:
Though details of the attack were sparse, an earlier statement from ISAF said Afghan and ISAF soldiers were involved in “heavy fighting” with insurgents at a command outpost in Kunar province.
“Insurgents have been firing at the [command outpost] with small arms, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars, using homes, shops and the mosque in the village of Wanat for cover,” according to the statement.
ISAF and Afghan soldiers, backed by air support, responded with small arms, machine guns, mortars and artillery, the statement said.
The village of Wanat, according to the weather site Falling Rain is located at Lat (DMS) 35° 3′ 8N Long (DMS) 70° 54′ 26E at an altitude of 1282 meters - about 4,200 feet. Google maps shows it to be up a narrow valley surrounded by peaks a 1,000 feet higher on three sides, some of the surrounding high ground is less than a mile away. If this were the true situation, it would explain how RPGs and mortars might be effective against the outpost. This is all speculation based on map reading. We should wait for more news before drawing any further conclusions.
The consequences?
US troops poised to cross Afghan border for raid on bases
From The Times [of London]
By Zahid Hussain in Islamabad
US troops in Afghanistan massed close to the border yesterday for a possible attack on al-Qaeda and Taleban bases in the lawless North Waziristan tribal belt in Pakistan.
Reports from the area said that hundreds of Nato troops were airlifted across the mountains from the village of Lowara Mandi, which has been an important base for cross-border attacks in Afghanistan. Heavy artillery and armoured vehicles were also being moved into position.
The deployment followed a claim by the Afghan Government on Monday that the Pakistani Army and its spy agency had become “the world's biggest producers of terrorism and extremism”. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry accused Kabul of creating an “artificial crisis to satisfy short-term political expediencies”.
President Bush said yesterday that the US would investigate the Afghan claims to “get to the bottom of the allegation”. He said that he was troubled by the movement of extremists from Pakistan into Afghanistan.
“I certainly hope that the [Pakistani] Government understands the dangers of extremists moving in their country,” Mr Bush said.Tensions have been heightened since the deaths of nine soldiers on Sunday when insurgents overran a US base in Kunar province, close to the Pakistani border.
Western commanders say there has been a marked increase in cross-border infiltration in the past few months, fuelling the insurgency in Afghanistan. Nato troops have clashed with Pakistani units along the South Waziristan border.
US Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made an announced visit to Islamabad at the weekend and held a series of meetings with Pakistan's top civil and military leadership.
According to well-placed sources, Admiral Mullen warned Pakistan that the US could take unilateral military action if the cross-border attacks in Afghanistan were not stopped. The US official said that some elements within Pakistani security agencies could be helping the insurgents operate from their bases in the border region.
The times they are about to get even more interesting.