Ralph Peters (at the NY Post) on Iran
Wherein Col Peters, USA(ret) catches up with what was posted here months ago!
WHAT ‘BOMB IRAN’ REALLY TAKES
Posted: 3:17 am
July 17, 2008
MY greatest worry on Iran’s nuclear threat to civilization isn’t the military option. It’s trying that option on the cheap.
If there’s any way to block Tehran’s pursuit of nukes short of warfare, I’m all for it. Maybe yesterday’s dispatch of the No. 3 US diplomat to observe the European Union’s talks with the mullahs about their nukes will work a miracle (don’t hold your breath).
Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.
But the fanatics in Tehran may leave us no peaceful alternative. In that case, the most disastrous thing we could do would be to launch an economy-model attack.
If forced to strike, we have to do it right. When safe-at-home ideologues bluster, “Just bomb ‘em,” they haven’t a clue how complex this problem is.
Nor is there any chance that the Israelis could handle Iran on their own (their recent air-force exercise was psychological warfare). As skilled as their pilots and planners may be, the Israelis lack the capacity to sustain a strategic offensive against Iran - or to deal with the inevitable mess they’d leave behind in the Persian Gulf. Israel’s aircraft could do serious damage to Iran’s nuke program, but the US military would face the potentially catastrophic aftermath.
Without compromising any secrets - the Iranians already know what we’d need to do - here are the basic requirements for smacking down Iran’s nuke program:
* Take out Iran’s air-defense and intelligence network to protect our attacking aircraft.
* Take down its national communications network to degrade its military reaction.
* Strike dozens of dispersed nuclear-related targets - some of them in hardened underground facilities, with others purposely placed in populated areas.
* Hit every anti-ship-missile installation along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast and the Straits of Hormuz. The reflexive Iranian response to an attack would be to launch sea-skimmer missiles against oil tankers and Western warships. The Iranians know that oil’s now the world’s Achilles heel.
* Destroy Iran’s naval capacity, including small craft, in the first 24 hours to prevent attacks on shipping (expect suicide attacks, too).
* Immediately take out all of Iran’s long-range and intermediate-range missiles - not just those that could strike Israel, but those that could hit Saudi, gulf-state or Iraqi oil refineries, pipelines, port facilities and oil fields . . . or our installations in the region.
* Hit the military’s key command centers in Tehran, as well as regional headquarters, with special attention to the Revolutionary Guards’ infrastructure.
* Expect three to six weeks of intense air and naval fighting, followed by months of skirmishing and asymmetrical warfare. And Iraq will heat back up, too.
Colonel Peters leaves out an important step, though:
Phase 4
Destruction of Iranian oil export and import facilities
Phase Four removes Iran’s ability to export oil (their only source of hard currency) and import distilled petroleum products. This phase will be a prolonged raid upon Iranian oil export and import facilities intended to utterly destroy the petroleum export and import capabilities of Iran.
Doing so will hobble Iran's economy and leave the regime in need of:
while leaving them with the financial ability to do at most two of those things. And, it should be noted, failing to accomplish item one will set the Iranian economy into a downward spiral.
Since Iran is a net neutral in terms of crude oil exports vs refined product imports, the impact on the world oil market should be minimal.
Colonel Peters goes on to posit his expected results and consequences of the operation as he envisions it. I'm not sure I agree, but nothing he posits is unprecedented.
Well worth the read.
WHAT ‘BOMB IRAN’ REALLY TAKES
Posted: 3:17 am
July 17, 2008
MY greatest worry on Iran’s nuclear threat to civilization isn’t the military option. It’s trying that option on the cheap.
If there’s any way to block Tehran’s pursuit of nukes short of warfare, I’m all for it. Maybe yesterday’s dispatch of the No. 3 US diplomat to observe the European Union’s talks with the mullahs about their nukes will work a miracle (don’t hold your breath).
Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.
But the fanatics in Tehran may leave us no peaceful alternative. In that case, the most disastrous thing we could do would be to launch an economy-model attack.
If forced to strike, we have to do it right. When safe-at-home ideologues bluster, “Just bomb ‘em,” they haven’t a clue how complex this problem is.
Nor is there any chance that the Israelis could handle Iran on their own (their recent air-force exercise was psychological warfare). As skilled as their pilots and planners may be, the Israelis lack the capacity to sustain a strategic offensive against Iran - or to deal with the inevitable mess they’d leave behind in the Persian Gulf. Israel’s aircraft could do serious damage to Iran’s nuke program, but the US military would face the potentially catastrophic aftermath.
Without compromising any secrets - the Iranians already know what we’d need to do - here are the basic requirements for smacking down Iran’s nuke program:
* Take out Iran’s air-defense and intelligence network to protect our attacking aircraft.
* Take down its national communications network to degrade its military reaction.
* Strike dozens of dispersed nuclear-related targets - some of them in hardened underground facilities, with others purposely placed in populated areas.
* Hit every anti-ship-missile installation along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast and the Straits of Hormuz. The reflexive Iranian response to an attack would be to launch sea-skimmer missiles against oil tankers and Western warships. The Iranians know that oil’s now the world’s Achilles heel.
* Destroy Iran’s naval capacity, including small craft, in the first 24 hours to prevent attacks on shipping (expect suicide attacks, too).
* Immediately take out all of Iran’s long-range and intermediate-range missiles - not just those that could strike Israel, but those that could hit Saudi, gulf-state or Iraqi oil refineries, pipelines, port facilities and oil fields . . . or our installations in the region.
* Hit the military’s key command centers in Tehran, as well as regional headquarters, with special attention to the Revolutionary Guards’ infrastructure.
* Expect three to six weeks of intense air and naval fighting, followed by months of skirmishing and asymmetrical warfare. And Iraq will heat back up, too.
Colonel Peters leaves out an important step, though:
Phase 4
Destruction of Iranian oil export and import facilities
Phase Four removes Iran’s ability to export oil (their only source of hard currency) and import distilled petroleum products. This phase will be a prolonged raid upon Iranian oil export and import facilities intended to utterly destroy the petroleum export and import capabilities of Iran.
Doing so will hobble Iran's economy and leave the regime in need of:
- rebuilding their crude oil export and refined products import capabilities.
- rebuilding their conventional forces.
- rebuilding their nuclear program.
- supporting terrorist organizations
while leaving them with the financial ability to do at most two of those things. And, it should be noted, failing to accomplish item one will set the Iranian economy into a downward spiral.
Since Iran is a net neutral in terms of crude oil exports vs refined product imports, the impact on the world oil market should be minimal.
Colonel Peters goes on to posit his expected results and consequences of the operation as he envisions it. I'm not sure I agree, but nothing he posits is unprecedented.
Well worth the read.