Actually, I think you're slightly off target. It's not the conservatives who are going to decide this election...it's going to be the moderates swinging the vote. The moderates have the power this year, and as a moderate I'm going to have to insist you not forget that or I'll kick your lily ass.
Based on what I've seen/read/heard, though, there is an atypically high number of moderates who have already decided for or against Bush (and remember that an election with a major incumbent candidate is largely an assessment of the performance of said candidate). Granted, much can happen in the next few months, but the issues at hand in this election - 9/11, Iraq, the economy, etc - seem to have polarized the moderate cohort more so than in the past (think '96) so the challenging candidate (probably Kerry) needs to court more extreme votes as, contrary to the moderates, many extreme voters are undecided. Bush's moves thus far (Mars space program to prove how awesome we are, Constitutional ban on homosexual marriage to prove... something, etc) have failed to do so, as many see the Mars plan as a flagrant waste of money we don't have and most conservatives aren't as homophobic and/or intolerant as Bush might think. I think the moderates have actually lost swing power since the '90s, though only time will tell. Admittedly, I've not seen
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Other than that I have no qualms.
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