Comments | rhetoretician: Electoral Map -- 12 days to go

rhetoretician

Electoral Map -- 12 days to go

Oct 23, 2008 23:13

Here's my latest electoral map (cartogram). With only twelve days until the election, patterns now established are going to be harder to break.
( Try clicking the map to get a bigger view )

elections, maps, cartograms, barack obama, presidential politics, john mccain

Comments 11

mickawber October 24 2008, 03:59:44 UTC

Heilige sheiße!

North Dakota is now a toss-up? The entire Midwest is solidly blue? Montana is a Republican nail-biter?

I would not want to be running for Congress as a Republican just now. The first-timers are SoL, and the incumbents have got to be quaking.

mickawber October 24 2008, 04:05:20 UTC

So.... based on your electoral analysis, if Obama wins all of the states he's way ahead in, plus Ohio or Florida (in which he holds a statistically significant lead) or, say, Virginia and New Hampshire... that's it?

rhetoretician October 24 2008, 12:41:02 UTC

First of all, before Jenny Boylan gets back online and reminds me of it, I should confess that I have been rather spectacularly wrong before.

But here's the breakdown:

State(s)EVO.LeadCumul.EV
DC, HI, MA, IL, CA, MD, VT, NJ, NY, MI, CT, MN, DE, ME, OR, IA, RI, PA, WA25511+%255
New Mexico57%260
Colorado95%269
Ohio205%289
Virginia135%302
Florida273%329
Missouri113%340
New Hampshire43%344
Indiana112%355
North Carolina52%370
Nevada50%375
North Dakota30%378After winning the "easier" ones, the 15 EV could come from several different sources. Simplest would be one big state like OH or FL, yes. But there are a lot of two- and three-state combinations, where the race is tied or where Obama is slightly ahead, that would yield the same result ( ... )

rhetoretician October 24 2008, 12:22:18 UTC

Personally I'm not sure I believe it about ND, but the Research 2000 poll that ended 10/15 showed it at a tie, and the Fargo Forum poll from a week earlier actually showed Obama ahead by two points. On the other hand, for about a week we thought that West Virginia was competetive due to a few polls during the period october 6-15, and that turned out to be an illusion.

Yeah, this is the wrong year to run as a Republican. And, as is typically the case in such years (e.g. 1932, 1974) it's not really fair.

peverell October 24 2008, 07:28:37 UTC

I should like to say that your current location makes me smile. :)

rhetoretician October 24 2008, 12:41:52 UTC

Hi Hazel. It's been a long time since I had a story idea that got me this excited.

amamama October 24 2008, 07:48:53 UTC

Interesting, very interesting. And amusing, as much of the...erm...spiritual community roots for Obama. I've seen him described as being the one who finally carries the energies of Washington, ready to bring the USA a giant leap forwards, and the one who's chosen to lead (by God, presumably), who just cannot fail. We'll see. And it was rather long ago that I first saw those reports. Change can be daunting, though - but do we have a choice? This isn't just your election (unfortunately), it will affect the whole world, and I do hope we'll see change. We will see change, no doubt about it, but I hope we get the chance to consciously choose change, and not have it pushed onto us. Like the current economic upheavals.

Yay to your location! It's got to be a great place.

rhetoretician October 24 2008, 12:47:04 UTC

Ah, well. It would be nice if there were annointed leaders like that. I think that Obama has the advantage of being highly inspirational, which is something we'll need to get through this mess. But I think they'd both be competent.

The one thing I really hope for in an Obama win would be that the rest of the world might begin to see us differently. We've done so many awful things in the last decade that I'm afraid for us. Perhaps Obama could convince some part of the world that we should get a second chance, even if we don't deserve it.

I'm very happy to have stumbled upon a story idea. It's kind of creepy, but it's just up my alley.

girlspell October 24 2008, 10:38:17 UTC

I just talked to my husband this morning. He said he heard (the news) the Asian markets were collapsing. Sony in trouble? Gah...just that kind of economic news. We've lost so much in our portfolio...I don't know. I now it's just on paper, but is sure hurts. Something wrong when you hear Alan Greenspan acknowledge he made a mistake.

I can't see McCain making anymore headway. And Obama needs all the help he can get once he's elected. What a mess!

rhetoretician October 24 2008, 12:48:23 UTC

Our portfolio isn't doing too well either. It's a good time to buy, though -- if you've got anything with which to buy, that is...

obie119 October 24 2008, 15:23:55 UTC

Thanks for this map - it is heartening. I'll be in NH on the 4th, working to blue-ize it! I'm so nervous and antsy! Go you with your story idea!