От заката до рассвета

[tijd]

В октябре 2018 37-летний мэр Миннеаполиса Джейкоб Фрей распорядился разместить в полицейских машинах города листок на английском и испанском с разъяснением прав арестованных.

"We value our immigrant community. This is part of what makes Minneapolis amazing, and so what we're saying at the end of the day is one, you're welcome here, and two, you're going to know your rights just like the rest of us. Right now, officers are required to make sure that detainees know their rights in the form of Miranda, and we're saying that those rights should be known by everyone."
https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/bob-kroll-jacob-frey-fox-news-illegal-immigrants/

На листке говорилось, что арестованные имеют права отказываться отвечать на вопросы полиции, в том числе о своем иммиграционном статусе https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/minneapolis-police-squad-cars-carry-message-detailing-immigrants-rights-n918791



Недовольный глава полицейского профсоюза Боб Кролл прибежал жаловаться на Fox News и с тех пор стал на этом канале желанным гостем. Пять лет спустя в результате судебного иска Кроллу запретят на 10 лет службу полицейским или участие в руководстве связанных с полицией организаций.

"This settlement achieves a much-needed goal: It takes Bob Kroll, a police leader and union head with a long history of racist and inflammatory statements, off the beat and out of police leadership in the Twin Cities metro for a decade."
https://www.aclu-mn.org/en/press-releases/aclu-mn-statement-settlement-former-mpd-union-head-bob-kroll



В октябре 2019, во время начала процедуры импичмента, Трамп решил провести в Миннеаполисе большой трампинг.

Когда полицейским запретили приходить на подобные мероприятия в форме, Боб Кролл начал продавать красные футболки с надписью "Cops for Trump" в качестве замены этой униформы. Рассказ о том, как нынешний уголовник любит органы правопорядка, вместе с нападками на мэра и нытьем про импичмент, стали главной темой трампинга.

"Look, I love law enforcement. I love the cops. I love the police, all of it.
Minneapolis, Minneapolis, you've got a rotten man. You've gotta change your mayor. You've got a bad mayor. You've got a bad mayor. <...>
So I'm watching Fox & Friends early in the morning, very early in the 6:00 slot, because I'm out of there pretty good, and I see a handsome young man named Bob Kroll, Cops For Trump. [cheers and applause] And he's talking about this lousy mayor they've got. Now, he didn't quite say that, but I say it. He's talking about this lousy mayor that won't let the cops, the police, the law enforcement ... You know, my father always used to say, "Son ..." and he meant it too, "Never say cops. It's disrespectful. Say police officer." I said, "Okay Pop."
But honestly, the truth is with time, I love you guys whether you're cops, police officers, law enforcement. I'll call you whatever you want. It doesn't matter. You are so great, so respected. You don't even know how much our public loves you. You don't know it. You don't know it. You don't know it. [cheers and applause]"
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-make-america-great-again-rally-minneapolis-minnesota



В социальных сетях мэр Фрей стал после этого объектом антисемитской травли, но сохранил внешнюю невозмутимость.

Трампа на митинге: "Since coming into office, I have reduced refugee resettlement by 85%-[cheers and applause]-and as you know, maybe especially in Minnesota, I kept another promise. I issued an executive action, making clear that no refugees will be resettled in any city or any state without the express written consent of that city or that state. So speak to your mayor."

Фрей в ответ: "Consent given. Immigrants and refugees are welcome in Minneapolis."



Неизвестно, носил ли футболку "Cops for Trump" полицейский из Минеаполиса, который через полгода прославится на весь мир своим коленом на шее арестованного и ныне отбывает тюремный срок. Как зарегистрированный республиканец, полицейский голосовал во Флориде, где у него второй дом.

В 2020 Джо Байден выиграет Миннесоту и наберет в Миннеаполисе (Hennepin County) больший процент голосов, чем любой президент до этого со времен Тедди Рузвельта в 1904.



За 70 лет до Джейкоба Фрея в историю вошел другой 37-летний мэр Миннеаполиса, Хьюберт Хамфри.

На съезде демократов в 1948 Хамфри, который в это время балотировался в сенаторы, произнес зажигательную речь о гражданских правах.

"Every citizen in this country has a stake in the emergence of the United States as a leader in the free world. That world is being challenged by the world of slavery. For us to play our part effectively, we must be in a morally sound position.
We can’t use a double standard -- There’s no room for double standards in American politics -- for measuring our own and other people’s policies. Our demands for democratic practices in other lands will be no more effective than the guarantee of those practices in our own country.
Friends, delegates, I do not believe that there can be any compromise on the guarantees of the civil rights which we have mentioned in the minority report. In spite of my desire for unanimous agreement on the entire platform, in spite of my desire to see everybody here in honest and unanimous agreement, there are some matters which I think must be stated clearly and without qualification. There can be no hedging -- the newspaper headlines are wrong. There will be no hedging, and there will be no watering down -- if you please -- of the instruments and the principles of the civil-rights program.
My friends, to those who say that we are rushing this issue of civil rights, I say to them we are 172 years late. To those who say that this civil-rights program is an infringement on states’ rights, I say this: The time has arrived in America for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states' rights and to walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights. People -- human beings -- this is the issue of the 20th century. People of all kinds -- all sorts of people -- and these people are looking to America for leadership, and they’re looking to America for precept and example.
My good friends, my fellow Democrats, I ask you for a calm consideration of our historic opportunity. Let us do forget the evil passions and the blindness of the past. In these times of world economic, political, and spiritual -- above all spiritual crisis, we cannot and we must not turn from the path so plainly before us. That path has already lead us through many valleys of the shadow of death. And now is the time to recall those who were left on that path of American freedom.
For all of us here, for the millions who have sent us, for the whole two billion members of the human family, our land is now, more than ever before, the last best hope on earth. And I know that we can, and I know that we shall began [sic] here the fuller and richer realization of that hope, that promise of a land where all men are truly free and equal, and each man uses his freedom and equality wisely well."
https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/huberthumphey1948dnc.html

Во многом благодаря этому выступлению делегаты съезда проголосовали за включение в платформу партии пункта о гражданском равноправии.

The Democratic Party commits itself to continuing its efforts to eradicate all racial, religious and economic discrimination.
We again state our belief that racial and religious minorities must have the right to live, the right to work, the right to vote, the full and equal protection of the laws, on a basis of equality with all citizens as guaranteed by the Constitution.
We highly commend President Harry S. Truman for his courageous stand on the issue of civil rights.
We call upon the Congress to support our President in guaranteeing these basic and fundamental American Principles: (1) the right of full and equal political participation; (2) the right to equal opportunity of employment; (3) the right of security of person; (4) and the right of equal treatment in the service and defense of our nation.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/1948-democratic-party-platform

Click to view

Результатом стал драматичный раскол партии. Половина делегатов из Алабамы и все делегаты Миссисипи демонстративно покидают съезд с криками "Goodbye, Harry!" Оставшиеся южане ("диксикраты") пытаются протолкнуть кандидатуру Ричарда Рассела, сенатора из Джорджии и принципального противника десегрегации. Позже диксикраты сплотятся вокруг своего кандидата, губернатора Южной Каролины Сторма Термонда, чтобы отобрать голоса у Гарри Трумэна.

The Southern Democrats who had walked out of the Democratic National Convention to protest the civil rights platform approved by the convention, and supported by Truman, promptly met at Municipal Auditorium in Birmingham, Alabama, on July 17, 1948, and formed yet another political party, which they named the States' Rights Democratic Party. More commonly known as the "Dixiecrats", the party's main goal was continuing the policy of racial segregation in the South and the Jim Crow laws that sustained it. Governor Thurmond, who had led the walkout, became the party's presidential nominee after the convention's initial favorite, Arkansas Governor Benjamin Laney, withdrew his name from consideration. Governor Wright of Mississippi received the vice-presidential nomination. The Dixiecrats had no chance of winning the election themselves, since they could not get on the ballot in enough states to win the necessary electoral votes. Their strategy was to take enough Southern states from Truman to force the election into the United States House of Representatives under the provisions of the Twelfth Amendment, where they could then extract concessions from either Truman or Dewey on racial issues in exchange for their support. Even if Dewey won the election outright, the Dixiecrats hoped that their defection would show that the Democratic Party needed Southern support in order to win national elections, and that this fact would weaken the pro-civil rights movement among Northern and Western Democrats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_United_States_presidential_election



Никто, включая Сталина в Кремле, не ожидал победы Трумэна. Тот играл ва-банк, используя все имеющиеся средства, и в итоге одержал знаковую победу. Курс на равноправие продолжился, вместе со внешней политикой коллективной защиты.

Truman lost New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, half of New England, a chunk of the South. Yet he won, against every reasoned and reasonable expectation. The reaction, while less predictable, was hardly less extreme. Pundits groveled, pollsters investigated themselves for a change. The Missouri ex-haberdasher began to emerge as a folk-hero instead of a twanging, clownish mediocrity. His triumph was epitomized in the photographs that showed him waving aloft the edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune whose banner headline proclaimed DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN. There was delight at the confusion of the soothsayers. There was delight at the victory of the little guy, the plucky underdog. It was as if William Jennings Bryan had beaten McKinley in 1896: the Western farmers, the plain people, versus the Eastern moneybags, the overwhelmingly Republican newspaper proprietors. Truman's subsequent “image” (to use a word not yet current) vastly improved. What had previously been regarded as clumsy indiscretions now tended to be admired as examples of sturdy independence-indeed leaderlike courage, as when he dismissed MacArthur. Truman could be viewed as an accidental but not unworthy heir to F.D.R., where hitherto his accession had been cited as an instance of the bizarre risks of picking nonentities to be Vice President. In those silly yet irresistible tables of Presidential fame he has edged up among the “superior” and even the “near great.”
https://www.commentary.org/articles/marcus-cunliffe/the-loneliest-campaign-by-irwin-ross/

Truman was serene while the pollsters, political scribes, bookies, party satraps and most of his campaign staff were certain he would be crushed on election day. He had an unshakable conviction that the issues he had been pushing and would push-affordable health insurance for all, raising the minimum wage, aid to education, civil rights (including desegregating the armed forces), resistance to Stalinist Russia and storage for farmers’ surplus crops-would trump Dewey’s pallid liberal Republican nostrums. He had a revolutionary campaign plan: He would tirelessly crisscross the country from Labor Day to election eve in his private railroad car, the ornate Ferdinand Magellan, talking unscripted to voters from dawn to midnight.
And, Mr. Baime writes, he had a brilliant ploy: Truman called the GOP-dominated House and Senate back for a special summer session, bombarded them with liberal legislation they refused to pass, then campaigned against the “do nothing” 80th Congress at every whistle stop and big-city rally. “Give ’em hell, Harry!” the voters shouted back as he harangued them from the rear platform of the Magellan.
The crowds built-20,000 or 30,000 in small Midwestern cities, sometimes at dawn in the rain; 100,000 and more in big-city stadiums and plazas. Challenging the president in the midst of the campaign, the Russians sealed off the American sector of Berlin inside the Soviet-controlled part of Germany, triggering real fear that World War III might erupt. Truman responded with a coup: the Berlin airlift that kept the city from starving.
In October, with the polls still running against him and nine out of 10 American newspapers, including the New York Times, endorsing Dewey, the president sat in the Magellan, Mr. Baime writes, and asked an aide to take notes. He then reeled off the 48 states, their electoral votes, and his predictions. “How many do I have?” he asked. The answer was 340-more than enough to carry the Electoral College. Meanwhile, the Wallace and Thurmond campaigns were shriveling, as splinter-party efforts so often do. Truman hammered Dewey until the last minute. “The Republicans stand for special interests and they always have,” he’d repeat. “The Democratic Party . . . stands for the people. . . . You know where I stand.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dewey-defeats-truman-review-the-truman-show-11595020696



Помимо прорыва блокады Берлина, ключевым внешнеполитическим решением в 1948 было признание независимости Израиля. Госсекретарь Маршалл, который вслед за ближневосточными экспертами из Госдепа, был против такого шага, считал, что Трумэн делает это ради еврейских голосов и денег на выборах. Но для того поддержка Израиля была вопросом принципа.

Ключевую роль сыграли два советника президента - Дэвид Найлс, сын иммигрантов из Российской империи, доставшийся Трумэну от Рузвельта в качестве неформального контакта с влиятельными людьми из Нью-Йорка и других крупных городов, и адвокат Кларк Клиффорд - христианин, проникшийся идеей создания Израиля. Особую роль сыграл также Эдди Якобсон, друг юности Трумэна из Миссури.

Eddie Jacobson was an ordinary Jewish guy in the Lower East Side in New York. Ordinary kid who spent his life as a travelling salesman selling clothing. It's just that when he was a child, his parents moved to Kansas City and there he met a child his own age, they became schoolfriends. The name of his friend was Harry S. Truman. They knew each other as kids, then again when they did military service in 1917 they found one another again and renewed their friendship, and they decided that when the war was over they'd go into business together. So they set up a clothing store in Kansas City together. They weren't great businessmen, to be totally honest with you, it didn't thrive as a business, and the two men drifted apart. Eddie Jacobson, as I say, went on being a travelling salesman selling clothes, and Harry S. Truman took a different route and landed up as President of the United States.
Comes '47, '48, and the Jews of the world need the support of the United States of America for the State of Israel to be proclaimed and recognised. The State Department is against it. It says to the President: Mr. President, do not support the creation of the State of Israel... So what happens? Jews try to get in to see the President in the White House, and every single person who tries to see the President in the White House is refused admission, including a very special person, the person who campaigned (next year we’ll celebrate the centenary for the Balfour Declaration in 1917 which first created the possibility of the State of Israel) who was then a lecturer at Manchester University in England, his name was Chaim Weizmann. He became the first President of the State of Israel.
Chaim Weizmann, who was the leader of the Zionist movement, tried to get to see the President and met with blank refusal all round. People thought, who can get through? No-one can get through to Harry S. Truman. Then somebody remembers that Harry S. Truman had a childhood friend called Eddie Jacobson, and they got in touch with Eddie Jacobson and said, we need you to go and see the President and get the President to agree to meet Chaim Weizmann, so Eddie phones up Harry Truman, they're old friends, “Harry!” “Eddie!” “How are you doing?” “Was macht a yid?” etc. The kind of thing American Presidents say. Eddie says to the President of the United States, “Harry, I've got to see you,” and all President Truman's officials say, “Don’t see this man.” Harry said, "This is my old friend, Eddie, from school, Eddie from the Army, Eddie from our shop together!"
He goes to see Eddie, he says, "Eddie, you can talk to me about anything, except Israel."
Eddie says “Okay”, and he stands there and he cries.
And the President of the United States (this is in the Oval Office) and he says, “Eddie, why are you crying?”
And Eddie says, "That little marble statue there, who is that, Harry?"
He said, "That's my hero, Andrew Jackson."
Eddie says, "You really admire this man?"
"Yes."
"He had an influence over you?"
"Yes."
Eddie said "I have a hero. His name is Chaim Weizmann. Harry, for my sake, see this man."
And Harry looked at Eddie and he knew that he couldn't say no to his old friend. That is how Chaim Weizmann got to see President Harry S. Truman. That is how America voted in favour of the creation of the State of Israel. Had they not voted, Israel would not have been brought into being. Harry S. Truman, President of the United States, made the United States the first country in the world to recognise the State when David Ben Gurion pronounced it.
https://rabbisacks.org/videos/purim-inspiration-even-you-can-change-the-world/



28 октября, 5 дней до выборах, Трумэн выступает в Madison Square Garden в Нью-Йорке.

"I wish to speak now upon a subject that has been of great interest to me as your President. It is the subject of Israel. Now, this is a most important subject and must not be resolved as a matter of politics during a political campaign. I have refused consistently to play politics with that question. I have refused, first, because it is my responsibility to see that our policy in Israel fits in with our foreign policy throughout the world; second, it is my desire to help build in Palestine a strong, prosperous, free, and independent democratic state. It must be large enough, free enough, and strong enough to make its people self-supporting and secure.
As President of the United States, back in 1945, I was the first to call for the immediate opening of Palestine to immigration to the extent of at least 100,000 persons. The United States, under my administration, led the way in November 1947, and was responsible for the resolution of the United Nations setting up Israel, not only as a homeland, but as a free and independent political state. The United States was the first to give full and complete recognition to the new State of Israel in April 1948, and recognition to its provisional government.
I have never changed my position on Palestine or Israel. As I have previously announced, I have stood--and still stand-on the present Democratic platform of 1948. The platform of 1944 had provisions in it under which I have been trying to act. The platform of 1948 reiterates those positions and goes a little further--and I am glad it did go a little further. What we need now is to help the people of Israel--and they have proved themselves worthy of the best traditions of hardy pioneers. They have created out of the barren desert a modern and efficient state, with the highest standards of Western civilization. They have demonstrated that Israel deserves to take its place in the family of nations."
https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/library/public-papers/262/address-madison-square-garden-new-york-city

Он проиграет Нью-Йорк, не добрав еврейских голосов из-за спойлера, Генри Уоллеса, который обвинял Трумэна в недостаточной поддержке Израиля во время войны за независимость.

While Truman won 75 percent of the Jewish vote nationally, according to data published in Jews and American Politics by Stephen D. Isaacs, that was down from the 90 percent won by Roosevelt in 1944. That 15 percent difference went to Wallace and decidedly not to Strom Thurmond, the segregationist governor of South Carolina who left the Democratic Party to challenge Truman. Thurmond won four Southern states.
Wallace’s best performance was in New York, with 8.25 percent of the vote powered by Jewish ballots. According to historian Rafael Medoff, Wallace cracked 20 percent in several Jewish precincts, reaching 28 percent in Brownsville, the most Jewish neighborhood in the country at the time. Medoff argued these voters “were furious that as newborn Israel was fighting for its existence, Truman refused to give it any weapons.”
Who won New York’s 47 electoral votes? Dewey did, the first Republican to do so since Herbert Hoover in 1928 beat Al Smith, the Empire State’s governor. Dewey won it with a 1 percent margin, a difference of about 61,000 voters over Truman. Wallace’s haul of nearly 510,000 votes in the state well covered Dewey’s margin of victory. According to Medoff, Wallace’s voters were “former Roosevelt supporters who likely would have voted for Truman if Wallace had not been in the race.” Dewey also helped his cause as a supporter of Israel, earning 20 percent of the Jewish vote in New York State, slightly less than Wallace.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2023/11/16/when-middle-east-politics-almost-tipped-an-american-presidential-election/



29 октября 1948, выступление в Гарлеме:

"I created the Civil Rights Committee because racial and religious intolerance began to appear after World War II. They threatened the very freedoms we had fought to save.
We Americans have a democratic way of acting when our freedoms are threatened.
We get the most thoughtful and representative men and women we can find, and we ask them to put down on paper the principles that represent freedom and a method of action that will preserve and extend that freedom. In that manner, we get a declaration of purpose and a guide for action that the whole country can consider.
That is the way in which the Declaration of Independence was drawn up.
That is the way in which the Constitution of the United States was written.
The report that the Civil Rights Committee prepared is in the tradition of these great documents.
It was the authors of the Declaration of Independence who stated the principle that all men are created equal in their rights, and that it is to secure these rights that governments are instituted among men.
It was the authors of the Constitution who made it dear that, under our form of government, all citizens are equal before the law, and that the Federal Government has a duty to guarantee to every citizen equal protection of the laws.
The Civil Rights Committee did more than repeat these great principles. It described a method to put these principles into action, and to make them a living reality for every American, regardless of his race, his religion, or his national origin.
When every American knows that his rights and his opportunities are fully protected and respected by the Federal, State, and local governments, then we will have the kind of unity that really means something."
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-harlem-new-york-upon-receiving-the-franklin-roosevelt-award



К тому времени, когда Хьюберт Хампфри стал вице-президентом у Линдона Джонсона в 1964, у него накопился опыт работы в Сенате в качестве лидера либерального крыла демократов. Но понадобилось политическое мастерство Джонсона, чтобы переиграть другие фракции и пробить через Конгресс ключевое законодательство, в том числе подготовленный Хампфри закон о гражданских правах.

Диалог из пьесы и телефильма "All the way":

SENATOR HUBERT HUMPHREY You told Dr. King that you wanted that Bill passed,
“without one word changed.”
LBJ When you go to sell a horse, you don’t start by talking about it bein’ blind in
one eye and got the heaves.
SENATOR HUBERT HUMPHREY People are going to say that it’s 1957 all over again and
you’re just gutting this bill!
LBJ Bullshit! It’s still a damn good bill, Humphrey, and you know it. A great Bill!
Real progress on Public Housing, Public Access, and School Desegregation.
Don’t you tell me that ain’t nothin’.
SENATOR HUBERT HUMPHREY The Liberal wing of the Party will think you betrayed
them.
LBJ Those are your people. It’s your job to bring ’em around.
SENATOR HUBERT HUMPHREY My job?!
LBJ Don’t be so modest, Hubert, you’re the Great White Hope of Liberals
everywhere.
SENATOR HUBERT HUMPHREY If I am anything like what you say, it’s because people
know I stand by my principles. I can’t sell what I don’t believe in! I won’t.
LBJ This ain’t about Principles, it’s about Votes. That’s the problem with you
Liberals-you don’t know how to fight. You wanta get something done in the
real world, Hubert, you’re gonna have to get your hands wet. You say you’re the
leader of the Liberal wing of the Democratic Party? Then show me some
goddamn leadership!

Когда Джонсон говорит Хампфри "That’s the problem with you Liberals-you don’t know how to fight", просвещенный зритель не может не вспомнить про бездарный проигрыш Хампфри Никсону на президентских выборах 1968, в который Джонсон не стал участвовать. В другом эпизоде Джонсон говорит про Хампфри: "He’s nice. Nice is what you call a gal with no tits, no ass, and no personality. Nice is for kissin’ babies; there’s no place for “nice” in a knife fight."

Click to view

Другая драматическая сцена происходит после подписания Акта о гражданских правах. Джонсон в задумчивости разглядывает портрет Трумэна в Белом доме, когда к нему подходит его ментор "Uncle Dick" - сенатор Рассел, проигравший борьбу за сохранение сегрегации.

LBJ I’m sorry, Dick.
SENATOR RUSSELL No, you’re not.
LBJ It’s not personal, Dick. It’s just politics.
SENATOR RUSSELL I think I recall you tellin’ Leland Olds somethin’ like that, just
after you cut his balls off with a rusty hacksaw.
A moment
It’s the passin’ of an era.
LBJ Yes it is.
SENATOR RUSSELL The passin’ of a time of etiquette. Courtesy. The passin’ of a time
of principles, like Party unity.
LBJ (smiling) You know what the Old Soldier said when he was on parade? “Hey,
look! Everybody’s out of step but me.”
SENATOR RUSSELL Maybe. I am old, and God knows I’m tired, but the fellas that are
comin’ up behind me are utterly without principles of any kind and you see how
you like dealin’ with them. You’ll miss me when I’m gone.
LBJ I still need you, Dick.
SENATOR RUSSELL I’m still here, Mr. President, but the rest of Dixie . . . ? I hope you
haven’t just killed your election chances.
Russell exits; LBJ watches him go. All actors exit. Humphrey crosses to LBJ.
SENATOR HUBERT HUMPHREY Congratulations, Mr. President, on your glorious victory!
LBJ The Democratic Party just lost the South for the rest of my lifetime and
maybe yours. (looking at Humphrey) What the fuck are you so happy about?



Джек Балкин, профессор конституционного права из Йеля, поддерживается теории о длинных циклах истории. Трумэн и Джонсон принадлежат к длинному циклу, который начался с прихода Рузвельта в 1932 и завершился после прихода Рейгана в 1980.

Because of our presidential and party system, American political history has featured a series of constitutional regimes, long periods in which one party dominates politics. The dominant party doesn’t win all of the elections, but it wins most of them, and it sets the agenda for what people think is politically possible. As political scientist Stephen Skowronek of Yale University explains, there have been six such regimes from the founding to the present: Federalist (1789-1800), Jeffersonian (1800-1828), Jacksonian (1828-1860), Republican (1860-1932), New Deal-Civil Rights (1932-1980) and the Reagan regime that has structured American politics from 1980 to the present. In each political era, a new dominant party arises, forms a winning coalition, promotes its interests and ideology, and eventually decays and collapses, often the victim of its own past success. <...>
But the conservative coalition that kept Republicans dominant for decades has begun to fray. The wealthy donors who bankroll the party’s policies of upward redistribution of wealth and downward redistribution of risk are increasingly out of touch with the concerns of rural, working-class and non-college educated voters who constitute the mass of the party. Increasingly, only cultural warfare and distrust of liberal institutions have kept the GOP together, and it is having difficulty attracting younger voters. The party’s ideology of privatization, deregulation and ever lower taxes, its attacks on public programs, and its complacency about wealth inequality appeared increasingly tone-deaf even before the country faced both a pandemic and a recession. In its weakened state, the GOP has been captured by a cartoonish demagogue who cares more about stoking hatreds and lining his own pockets than attending to the public good.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/03/reagan-trump-political-regimes-biden-cycles/



Внутри каждого длинного цикла могут попадаться президенты от оппозиции, но им приходится плыть против течения и идти на уступки. В конце цикла возникают президенты, которые не могут предложить народу реального решения накопившихся проблем и символизируют агонию. Анализируя ситуацию в 2018, Балкин решил, что к таким президентам принадлежит Трамп.

Reconstructive Presidents successfully overturn a weakened regime and begin a new one. They lead the opposition party to become the newly dominant party. Examples of reconstructive Presidents are the first Presidents in each new regime: Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, and Reagan. Presidents who achieve such a reconstruction are usually considered as among our most successful.
Preemptive Presidents come from opposition parties; they swim against the tide of a still powerful regime, so they must compromise, triangulate, and find a “third way.” Examples in the New Deal/Civil Rights regime would be Eisenhower and Nixon; examples in the Reagan regime would be Clinton and Obama.
The final category, disjunctive Presidents, are leaders who come from the dominant party but have the misfortune to take over when the regime is on its last legs. Here the President tries to repair and reform a decrepit regime that has lost its coherence and legitimacy; the leader attempts this by selectively breaking with party orthodoxy in specific ways to shore up public support and reform the party’s base. But because the coalition has become so debilitated and weakened, the leader is not up to the task, and therefore presides over the regime’s dissolution. Jimmy Carter, the last Democrat in the New Deal/Civil Rights regime, and Herbert Hoover, the last Republican in the long Republican regime, are key examples. Disjunctive presidencies are usually regarded as failures.
https://www.repository.law.indiana.edu/ilj/vol94/iss1/6/

Агония может еще продлится, но длинная эпоха Рейгана подходит к концу, открывая зарю новой эпохи.



Недавние выборы в Англии и Франции подсказывают глобальный тренд.

As we show in our book A History of Political Conflict, people in smaller cities and rural areas are drawn to the far right first and foremost because of socioeconomic concerns: they lack purchasing power, they suffer most from the lack of investment in public infrastructure and they feel that they have been abandoned by governments of all stripes in recent decades.
The NFP’s policy platform credibly addresses how to finance a strategy of inclusive investment. By contrast, the far right argues in favour of repealing the existing tax on real-estate multi-millionaires. It claims it will finance its policies by targeting foreigners and welfare recipients, but this will simply generate more economic disillusionment and more tensions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/03/france-hard-left-new-popular-front-far-right

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