Not down with the 538? Get on it!

Oct 25, 2008 19:54


So what's the state of the race today, with only 9 days of campaigning to go?

Find out! )

fivethirtyeight, nate silver taught numbers how to fuck

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Comments 98

BLUE NOT WHITE DAMMNIT white_bitch628 October 26 2008, 03:03:33 UTC
Hoosiers don't let me down!!!!

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Re: BLUE NOT WHITE DAMMNIT ohmy_sexhart October 26 2008, 03:22:06 UTC
I did my part! I voted today with my parents and sister, all voting for Obama :)

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Re: BLUE NOT WHITE DAMMNIT blxsh October 26 2008, 03:35:29 UTC
Im early voting on Thursday!

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Re: BLUE NOT WHITE DAMMNIT bluebythebook October 26 2008, 04:14:25 UTC

AGREED.

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fancifull October 26 2008, 03:04:59 UTC
538 frequently makes my day :)

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my_private_muse October 26 2008, 03:08:13 UTC
I'm still going to be fucking nervous till November 5th.

I'm fully preparing myself to be lying in bed depressed with a bottle of wine, skipping class and work that day.

Fully prepared.

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therocket_queen October 26 2008, 06:25:19 UTC
I don't have class that day, and the night of the election is also a friends birthday party... So either I'll be shitfaced and celebrating Obama's impending win and my friend's birthday... or I'll be shitfaced and throwing cake at the tv in the bar, but either way, I'M GETTING TRASHED. Although the resulting hangover would be much easier to deal with if Obama wins, not gonna lie...

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Also fully prepared. serenityone October 26 2008, 06:41:28 UTC
My husband and I BOTH requested the 5th off of work so that if by some horrible tragedy Obama loses, we can spend the day in bed crying.

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Re: Also fully prepared. tejas October 26 2008, 06:42:52 UTC
Have sex while you're at it. It will ease the pain. :-)

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(The comment has been removed)

DITTO bnmc2005 October 26 2008, 05:17:31 UTC
But I have to say ... I am NOT surprised. I had faith all along. :)

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bord_du_rasoir October 26 2008, 03:09:10 UTC
Man, their models are really skewed toward the 375 EV scenario.

375 is almost three times more than the 364 scenario (essentially 375 sans Indiana's 11 electoral votes). The "models that be" must really "think" Indiana's turning blue - even though IN appears in really light blue or white on the map.

Oh, and the 376 scenario makes it in the number-2 spot. So, apparently, gaining that one district in Nebraska is even more likely than losing Indiana.

378 must mean they're showing a little hope for North Dakota or maybe Montana.

It makes no sense that the next most likely scenario is 286. That means the fall of seven states, NV, MO, IN, OH, FL, NC, from Obama to McCain. You'd think there'd be another scenario nearer the rest; not, say, randomly 100 points away.

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bord_du_rasoir October 26 2008, 03:12:34 UTC
That means the fall of *six* states, NV, MO, IN, OH, FL, NC

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