A Threat To The Vulnerable Balkans
Stefan Wagstyl in the Financial Times today:
Officials in the Balkans were this week comforted by the fact that the EU's summit statement repeated its commitment to extend membership to the region. Romania and Bulgaria, which hope to join in 2007, received specific assurances on their bids. The countries of the former Yugoslavia were told: "The future of the western Balkans lies in the European Union."
Yet experts remain concerned about the fallout from the EU's crisis. Bratislav Grubacic, manager of VIP Services, a Belgrade news agency, said yesterday: "The atmosphere in the EU is not as good as our officials hoped. My personal view is that enlargement will be delayed."
Nicholas Whyte, Europe director for the International Crisis Group and a Balkans specialist, warned that delays could harm the vulnerable states of the western Balkans.
This is a critical time for the region. In Romania a new centre-right government is struggling to complete reforms in time for 2007, knowing that failure would prompt the EU to impose a one-year delay. In Bulgaria, the centre-right administration faces probable defeat in this weekend's general election and the election winners could find it difficult to form a coalition. Bucharest and Sofia realise that, although EU leaders have agreed their entry dates, ratification of accession by the 25 members can no longer be taken for granted.
Croatia had hoped to have started accession talks earlier this year. But its bid has been postponed by the failure to deliver Ante Gotovina, the alleged war criminal, to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The EU wants more evidence that Zagreb is trying to locate and arrest Mr Gotovina.
Albania goes to the polls next month in parliamentary elections that are crucial to its membership bid. A failure to control electoral fraud would complicate efforts to persuade the EU that Albania could meet criteria for entry. Meanwhile, Macedonia is recovering from the interethnic conflict that drove ethnic Macedonians and Albanians to the brink of civil war in 2001. It needs to finish implementing EU-brokered power-sharing agreements.
In Bosnia, the international administration headed by Lord Ashdown hopes that the EU will next year take responsibility for supervising the divided country and that Bosnia can start talks on an association agreement, the entry level of formal co-operation with Brussels. However, Bosnia is in political deadlock over police reforms that the EU has set as a condition for talks.
Across the region, the EU is the most important magnet for reform, pulling people who were only a few years ago mired in civil war into the modern world. In some states delays in EU integration could not only waste valuable time but bring the risk of renewed violence.
The dangers are particularly acute in the split state of Serbia and Montenegro, especially the United Nations-administered province of Kosovo. Vojislav Kostunica, the Serbian prime minister, has this year sent about 12 war crimes suspects to The Hague, winning the promise of an early start to EU association talks. But Serbia remains fragile, with Montenegro considering an independence referendum in 2006 and final status negotiations likely to start for Kosovo later this year. The rightwing nationalist Radicals remain the largest Serbian parliamentary party.
In Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian majority demands independence. The ethnic Serb minority wants to remain in Serbia. With the danger of violent clashes rarely far away, international negotiators must tread carefully as they inch towards some form of qualified independence. Their job will be easier if they can offer the possibility of EU membership. For ethnic Albanians it would be a seal of recognition. For ethnic Serbs, it could represent a guarantee of rights.
While the budget row at last week's summit shows that funds are tight in the EU, preparing the Balkans for accession need not increase costs. The union already contributes hugely to the region. As well as development aid, EU members make the largest contribution to peace-keeping forces in Bosnia and Kosovo. Mr Whyte says that, in the long run, the EU would save money because "military intervention always costs more than prevention".
Nor are even the weaker western Balkan states economic failures. Since the last war in Kosovo in 1999 the region has steadily recovered. Its economy grew by an average of 6.4 per cent last year, faster than the new EU member states. Foreign direct investment has risen from $3.6bn six years ago to almost $10bn in 2004.
However business people are banking on most countries joining the EU by about 2014. If this deadline begins to recede investment flows could decline. The EU will have interrupted the positive economic cycles that it has helped to start.
Officials in the Balkans were this week comforted by the fact that the EU's summit statement repeated its commitment to extend membership to the region. Romania and Bulgaria, which hope to join in 2007, received specific assurances on their bids. The countries of the former Yugoslavia were told: "The future of the western Balkans lies in the European Union."
Yet experts remain concerned about the fallout from the EU's crisis. Bratislav Grubacic, manager of VIP Services, a Belgrade news agency, said yesterday: "The atmosphere in the EU is not as good as our officials hoped. My personal view is that enlargement will be delayed."
Nicholas Whyte, Europe director for the International Crisis Group and a Balkans specialist, warned that delays could harm the vulnerable states of the western Balkans.
This is a critical time for the region. In Romania a new centre-right government is struggling to complete reforms in time for 2007, knowing that failure would prompt the EU to impose a one-year delay. In Bulgaria, the centre-right administration faces probable defeat in this weekend's general election and the election winners could find it difficult to form a coalition. Bucharest and Sofia realise that, although EU leaders have agreed their entry dates, ratification of accession by the 25 members can no longer be taken for granted.
Croatia had hoped to have started accession talks earlier this year. But its bid has been postponed by the failure to deliver Ante Gotovina, the alleged war criminal, to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The EU wants more evidence that Zagreb is trying to locate and arrest Mr Gotovina.
Albania goes to the polls next month in parliamentary elections that are crucial to its membership bid. A failure to control electoral fraud would complicate efforts to persuade the EU that Albania could meet criteria for entry. Meanwhile, Macedonia is recovering from the interethnic conflict that drove ethnic Macedonians and Albanians to the brink of civil war in 2001. It needs to finish implementing EU-brokered power-sharing agreements.
In Bosnia, the international administration headed by Lord Ashdown hopes that the EU will next year take responsibility for supervising the divided country and that Bosnia can start talks on an association agreement, the entry level of formal co-operation with Brussels. However, Bosnia is in political deadlock over police reforms that the EU has set as a condition for talks.
Across the region, the EU is the most important magnet for reform, pulling people who were only a few years ago mired in civil war into the modern world. In some states delays in EU integration could not only waste valuable time but bring the risk of renewed violence.
The dangers are particularly acute in the split state of Serbia and Montenegro, especially the United Nations-administered province of Kosovo. Vojislav Kostunica, the Serbian prime minister, has this year sent about 12 war crimes suspects to The Hague, winning the promise of an early start to EU association talks. But Serbia remains fragile, with Montenegro considering an independence referendum in 2006 and final status negotiations likely to start for Kosovo later this year. The rightwing nationalist Radicals remain the largest Serbian parliamentary party.
In Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian majority demands independence. The ethnic Serb minority wants to remain in Serbia. With the danger of violent clashes rarely far away, international negotiators must tread carefully as they inch towards some form of qualified independence. Their job will be easier if they can offer the possibility of EU membership. For ethnic Albanians it would be a seal of recognition. For ethnic Serbs, it could represent a guarantee of rights.
While the budget row at last week's summit shows that funds are tight in the EU, preparing the Balkans for accession need not increase costs. The union already contributes hugely to the region. As well as development aid, EU members make the largest contribution to peace-keeping forces in Bosnia and Kosovo. Mr Whyte says that, in the long run, the EU would save money because "military intervention always costs more than prevention".
Nor are even the weaker western Balkan states economic failures. Since the last war in Kosovo in 1999 the region has steadily recovered. Its economy grew by an average of 6.4 per cent last year, faster than the new EU member states. Foreign direct investment has risen from $3.6bn six years ago to almost $10bn in 2004.
However business people are banking on most countries joining the EU by about 2014. If this deadline begins to recede investment flows could decline. The EU will have interrupted the positive economic cycles that it has helped to start.