Other people's Hugo votes
It's much more difficult to find online discussion of the Hugo nominees now than it was ten years ago. That doesn't mean it's not happening - I'm sure it is. But I suspect that the gardens of the internet are regaining their walls, which is a bit sad. Even two years ago (admittedly two days before the voting deadline, rather than ten) I found a lot more to work on.
Anyway, there are a few brave souls who have posted their likely votes on the fiction categories in places where I was able to find them. There were a number of others who had listed the nominees but didn't give me a clear enough idea of their rankings to include below; please shout if you feel unjustly excluded. If I am able, I may post an update as the voting deadline nears.
In two categories there is a pretty clear front-runner, and in the other two the votes seem more dispersed. This, of course, doesn't represent anything even approximating to an opinion poll: it is very far from a random sample, and I can entirely believe that there are fans of particular authors who will vote for their works but don't feel the need to blog about it, or even necessarily to read the competition. But it's interesting to read the analysis of people who have read the same stories and taken very different things from them.
Best Novel
Rachel Neumeier: 1) 2312, 2) Captain Vorpatril's Alliance, 3) Redshirts, 4) Blackout, 5) Throne Of The Crescent Moon
William Fuller: 1) 2312, =2) Throne Of The Crescent Moon, =2) Redshirts
Me: 1) Captain Vorpatril's Alliance, 2) Throne Of The Crescent Moon, 3) 2312, 4) Blackout, 5) Redshirts
Timo Pietilä: 1) Captain Vorpatril's Alliance, 2) 2312, 3) Redshirts, 4) Blackout, 5) Throne Of The Crescent Moon
Chris Gerrib: 1) Throne Of The Crescent Moon, 2) Blackout, 3) Redshirts, 4) Captain Vorpatril's Alliance, 5) 2312
Steven Halter: 1) Blackout, 2) Throne Of The Crescent Moon, 3) 2312, 4) Captain Vorpatril's Alliance, 5) Redshirts
2312 seems to be the likeliest winner, though not with great enthusiasm. I found a number of posts from people who had not read it yet. No first preferences for Redshirts; despite its visibility, it is near the bottom of most people's ballots.
Best Novella:
Me: 1) The Emperor’s Soul, 2) On a Red Station, Drifting, 3) “The Stars Do Not Lie”, 4) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 5) San Diego 2014
Timo Pietilä: 1) The Emperor’s Soul, 2) "The Stars Do Not Lie", 3) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 4) San Diego 2014, 5) On a Red Station, Drifting
David Steffen: 1) The Emperor’s Soul, 2) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 3) San Diego 2014, 4) “The Stars Do Not Lie”, 5) On a Red Station, Drifting
Peter Enyeart: 1) The Emperor’s Soul, 2) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 3) On a Red Station, Drifting, 4) San Diego 2014, 5) “The Stars Do Not Lie”
Rachel Neumeier: 1) The Emperor’s Soul, 2) San Diego 2014, 3) On a Red Station, Drifting, 4) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 5) "The Stars Do Not Lie"
Alan Heuer: 1) The Emperor’s Soul, 2) San Diego 2014, 3) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 4) On a Red Station, Drifting, 5) "The Stars Do Not Lie"
Steven Halter: 1) San Diego 2014, 2) The Emperor’s Soul, 3) On a Red Station, Drifting, 4) “The Stars Do Not Lie”, 5) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall
Caleb Huitt: 1) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 2) San Diego 2014, 3) The Emperor’s Soul, 4) On a Red Station, Drifting, 5) "The Stars Do Not Lie"
Chris Gerrib: 1) “The Stars Do Not Lie”, 2) On a Red Station, Drifting, 3) The Emperor’s Soul, 4) After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, 5) San Diego 2014
A pretty clear front-runner there. Surprised by the lack of love for On a Red Station, Drifting which is in the lower half of all but two of the above ballots (one being mine).
Best Novelette:
Timo Pietilä: 1) “The Boy Who Cast No Shadow”, 2) “Rat-Catcher”, 3) “The Girl-Thing Who Went Out for Sushi”, 4) “Fade To White”, 5) “In Sea-Salt Tears”
Kristin Hill: 1) “The Boy Who Cast No Shadow”, 2) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 3) “Rat-Catcher”, 4) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 5) "Fade to White"
Marshall Ryan Maresca: 1) “The Boy Who Cast No Shadow”, 2) “Fade To White”, 3) “Rat-Catcher”, 4) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 5) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi"
Me: 1) "Fade to White", 2) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 3) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 4) "The Boy Who Cast No Shadow", 5) "Rat-Catcher"
Peter Enyeart: 1) "Fade to White", 2) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 3) "The Boy Who Cast No Shadow", 4) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 5) "Rat-Catcher"
Alan Heuer: 1) "Fade to White", 2) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 3) “Rat-Catcher”, 4) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 5) “The Boy Who Cast No Shadow"
Steven Halter: 1) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 2) "Rat-Catcher", 3) "The Boy Who Cast No Shadow", 4) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 5) "Fade to White"
David Steffen: 1) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 2) “The Boy Who Cast No Shadow”, 3) “Rat-Catcher”, 4) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 5) "Fade to White"
Caleb Huitt: 1) "The Girl-Thing Who Went Out For Sushi", 2) "Fade to White", 3) "In Sea-Salt Tears", 4) "Rat-Catcher", 5) "The Boy Who Cast No Shadow"
A fairly even split between three front-runners here. I note that those who did not give a first preference to "In Sea-Salt Tears" all put it in the lower half of their ballots, whereas both “The Boy Who Cast No Shadow” and "Fade to White" managed a second place somewhere.
Best Short Story:
Me: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Timo Pietilä: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Kristin Hill: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Marshall Ryan Maresca: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Alan Heuer: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Peter Enyeart: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Rachel Neumeier: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Caleb Huitt: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Immersion", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Steven Halter: 1) "Mono no Aware", 2) "Mantis Wives", 3) "Immersion"
David Steffen: 1) "Immersion", 2) "Mono no Aware", 3) "Mantis Wives"
Chance Morrison: 1) "Immersion", 2) "Mantis Wives", 3) "Mono no Aware"
A pretty extraordinary consensus - with only three nominees, there are only six possible rankings, but one of those rankings is supported by 70% of those who have posted their views (including me). It rather looks as if Ken Liu will make it two years in a row, a feat last achieved by Michael Swanwick in 1999-2000.
So, there we are. When I did the same exercise two years ago, the blogging consensus did not pick a single one of the eventual four winners.
Needless to say, if any of those linked to feel that I have mischaracterised them (or even worse, mis-identified them) in any way, please get in touch.