Prediction Scorecard for 2014
At the end of 2013 I presented you with my predictions for 2014. It turns out that my record this year was bloody awful. I predicted:
Yeah. So, let's go over the agonizing details of what went wrong, shall we?
Neither the US House nor the US Senate will change hands. I was right about the House and wrong about the Senate, mostly because I assumed the Tea Party idiots would do what they did the previous two elections and nominate dismal and appalling candidates to Senate races. Alas, this time the GOP establishment beat back the Tea Party, and so we had no Mourdocks or O'Donnells to mock. And so the GOP beat the Democrats handily. Enjoy the Senate majority while you can, Republicans, because the Democrats will win it back in 2016. 0/1
Mitch McConnell will lose his Senate seat. Here I over-estimated Allison Grimes. She put up a good fight, but McConnell is just a better campaigner, which is how he's managed to win so many terms. 0/2
Wendy Davis will lose her bid to become Texas governor. I figured she'd lose by ten points. She lost by 17. The Democrats aren't going to touch Texas again for a while. 1/3
The major issues of 2014 will be guns and health care. Guns were nowhere as big an issue as I thought they would be in 2014. They were still big enough, nonetheless, to influence state and local elections, particular Washington's referendum I-594. Health care, on the other hand, was HUGE in 2014, between Obamacare and Ebola. The other big issues were immigration, police brutality, and same-sex marriage. 2/4
Oregon will become the first (and perhaps only) state to reverse its own anti-gay-marriage ballot measure by a subsequent ballot measure. Clearly, I didn't see that there would be a wave of court rulings favoring same sex marriage. Oregon's Measure 36 was overturned by a court decision, which saved gay rights proponents from an expensive campaign. I could be generous to myself and give myself a half point here, but honesty demands that I be hard on myself. 2/5
The US will start putting boots on the ground in East Africa The US has "advisors" in Somalia, and they're increasingly engaged in combat missions. Is that good enough for you? It's good enough for me. 3/6
The US U3 unemployment rate will go below 6.5%. Last month it was at 5.8%. That suffices to prove me right. 4/7
The movement to divest from Israel will become a major news story. Aaaaaand it didn't. 4/8
Major reforms in surveillance methods will pass Congress. Aaaaaaand they didn't. In fact the Republican Party killed those reforms, and Rand Paul helped them. 4/9.
George Zimmerman will have another run-in with the law. Much to my surprise, this didn't happen. Zimmerman ALMOST had a run-in with the law after a road rage incident where he threatened to kill the other party, but the other party declined to press charges. Once again, George Zimmerman's luck is just sufficient to save him from his own recklessness. 4/10
Super Bowl XLVIII will be Denver versus Seattle. I was exactly right. 5/11
So yeah, I got less than half of my predictions right this year. Keep that in mind later today, when I post my predictions for 2015. See you then!
- Neither the US House nor the US Senate will change hands.
- Mitch McConnell will lose his Senate seat.
- Wendy Davis will lose her bid to become Texas governor.
- The major issues of 2014 will be guns and health care.
- Oregon will become the first (and perhaps only) state to reverse its own anti-gay-marriage ballot measure by a subsequent ballot measure.
- The US will start putting boots on the ground in East Africa
- The US U3 unemployment rate will go below 6.5%.
- The movement to divest from Israel will become a major news story.
- Major reforms in surveillance methods will pass Congress.
- George Zimmerman will have another run-in with the law.
- Super Bowl XLVIII will be Denver versus Seattle.
Yeah. So, let's go over the agonizing details of what went wrong, shall we?
Neither the US House nor the US Senate will change hands. I was right about the House and wrong about the Senate, mostly because I assumed the Tea Party idiots would do what they did the previous two elections and nominate dismal and appalling candidates to Senate races. Alas, this time the GOP establishment beat back the Tea Party, and so we had no Mourdocks or O'Donnells to mock. And so the GOP beat the Democrats handily. Enjoy the Senate majority while you can, Republicans, because the Democrats will win it back in 2016. 0/1
Mitch McConnell will lose his Senate seat. Here I over-estimated Allison Grimes. She put up a good fight, but McConnell is just a better campaigner, which is how he's managed to win so many terms. 0/2
Wendy Davis will lose her bid to become Texas governor. I figured she'd lose by ten points. She lost by 17. The Democrats aren't going to touch Texas again for a while. 1/3
The major issues of 2014 will be guns and health care. Guns were nowhere as big an issue as I thought they would be in 2014. They were still big enough, nonetheless, to influence state and local elections, particular Washington's referendum I-594. Health care, on the other hand, was HUGE in 2014, between Obamacare and Ebola. The other big issues were immigration, police brutality, and same-sex marriage. 2/4
Oregon will become the first (and perhaps only) state to reverse its own anti-gay-marriage ballot measure by a subsequent ballot measure. Clearly, I didn't see that there would be a wave of court rulings favoring same sex marriage. Oregon's Measure 36 was overturned by a court decision, which saved gay rights proponents from an expensive campaign. I could be generous to myself and give myself a half point here, but honesty demands that I be hard on myself. 2/5
The US will start putting boots on the ground in East Africa The US has "advisors" in Somalia, and they're increasingly engaged in combat missions. Is that good enough for you? It's good enough for me. 3/6
The US U3 unemployment rate will go below 6.5%. Last month it was at 5.8%. That suffices to prove me right. 4/7
The movement to divest from Israel will become a major news story. Aaaaaand it didn't. 4/8
Major reforms in surveillance methods will pass Congress. Aaaaaaand they didn't. In fact the Republican Party killed those reforms, and Rand Paul helped them. 4/9.
George Zimmerman will have another run-in with the law. Much to my surprise, this didn't happen. Zimmerman ALMOST had a run-in with the law after a road rage incident where he threatened to kill the other party, but the other party declined to press charges. Once again, George Zimmerman's luck is just sufficient to save him from his own recklessness. 4/10
Super Bowl XLVIII will be Denver versus Seattle. I was exactly right. 5/11
So yeah, I got less than half of my predictions right this year. Keep that in mind later today, when I post my predictions for 2015. See you then!