Predictions, reflections and a flabbergasted Knight

[matgb]

I'm awake, honest. I've had enough coffee to get me going again anyway. Doing some tidying up to my LJ, renaming tags, etc. This seems like a good enough reason to rename one of them, plus 2008 has ended so it's time to start a new 'life' tag for this year

Comments

[matgb]

It seemed like a good way to mention it without actually wasting another post on the subject.

That I opened the tab to just post about that and then started rambling is a sign of how tired I am.

[burkesworks]

Hmmm, I would think long and hard before voting tactically for Ganley's mob, given their links (no matter how tenuous) to the Austrian far-right and former advisers to Nixon and Goldwater. I'd rather have UKIP than some of his shadowy friends.

Personally, as a liberal and a EU-sceptic in that order, I'd like to see a stronger showing from the rump Liberals but sadly I can't imagine them putting anyone on the slate; they're all ends up to maintain a few councillors around the country.

[matgb]

TBH, I haven't digged too heavily into them, only heard him on R4 a few times and had a glance over the website. To an extent, behaving like a typical voter rather than a politico.

The continuity Liberals are pretty dead in the water now-it would be nice for us to sort our policy out, but it's such a minefield of an issue that I can understand why the leadership wants to ignore it as a low priority.

[0ct0pus]

I've been wondering about an August 09 general election as well - my suspicion is Brown suddenly looking like a hero off the back of an 'Obama Bounce' in consumer and market confidence in the early part of the year, and thus chancing his arm.

I actually think he might win as well, Cameron has hardly made a great impression, and if you take away the "arrgh, recession, not Brown" factor (which the apparent "success" of Brownite fiscal policy worldwide could well do) he's not looking like a winner.

[matgb]

Cameron's real problem is Osborne, who is palpably out of his depth there-promoted too soon into a crucial role just before a predictable crisis (how bad wasn't predicted, that it was likely was).

Someone like Clarke in as Shadow Chancellor and Cameron would be in a much better position, as it is they look like a bunch of lightweights, with the only exceptions seeming to be Hague and Pickles.

[getawaywithit]

I suspect Libertas will likely emulate the Pro-Euro Conservative Party, if they even make it to the ballot paper. Plus, I'm not sure how fringe the lunatics are when their website states "Libertas stands for individual freedom, democracy, and a culture embracing life" (my emphasis).

[matgb]

Pro-lifers? Ouch, missed that.

I'm interested in watching them as it's a new thing, and they have the potential to build something, but dodgy links and some interesting backgrounds may make things harder.

The basics that Lisbon is a mess and the EU needs root and branch reform is the message we should've come on with ourselves though.

[stillcarl]

Obama's Achilles heal may prove to be Israel, since it's the first major foreign issue he'll be expected to respond to. It's Biden's "generated international crisis test", me thinks.

[matgb]

Aye, the Israel mess is a big stumbler, always, and Hilary will be tested as well. It's unfortunate that it's one of those fights were everyone seems to insist that you have to take a side-saying "they're all behaving like bloodthirsty idiots" isn't apparently an option to a politician, but that's what's needed.