Predictions, reflections and a flabbergasted Knight
I'm awake, honest. I've had enough coffee to get me going again anyway. Doing some tidying up to my LJ, renaming tags, etc. This seems like a good enough reason to rename one of them, plus 2008 has ended so it's time to start a new 'life' tag for this year.
Appears I've posted less about what's been going on in my life this year than any other calender year that I've had the LJ. I guess being happy gives me less to write about, right? Completely skint, but there y'go, can't have everything.
I don't do new years resolutions, and, well, predictions are a bit of a mugs game, but, well, might as well.
General Election this year likely
I suspect there'll be General Election this year. Really. Brown has to call one before June 2010, and when he decided not to call one in 2007, he said he'd go for "a full term", thing is British tradition is that a full term is 4+ years. Last time a Labour Prime Minister took over half way through a Parliament, he decided to go for the maximum possible term of office. His name was Callaghan. That decision proved to be a really big mistake.
Brown's a coward, waiting a risk
Brown is said by many to be a political coward not prone to taking risks. I agree with this assesment for the most part. They say this means he'll wait until the end. I think he has enough of a grounding in Labour history to believe that waiting until the end will be a bigger risk. Hence he won't wait until the end.
He might go in June, but more likely he'll go in the Autumn, after the party conference season. Regardless, it'll be an interesting year with a lot of UK politicking. For those of you that find the whole petty partizan sniping that UK politics frequently becomes a really annoying sideshow, sorry, but, well, the system encourages this crap.
Stop the crap, get involved
Best bet to stop it from happening is to change the system. Fixed term parliaments (like most other civilised countries have) would stop all the silly speculating, and an improved electoral system would encourage some positive campaigning and less negativity (note, 'encourage' and 'less' not 'ensure' and 'none'). Meh, rambling.
Obama rides high, social issues will a problem
Barack Obama gets sworn in as the next US President this month. I predict he'll have a strong honeymoon period riding high in the approval ratings. He'll be able to extend this by releasing lots of analysis of how bad things have been left by the current administration, and be seen to be doing stuff that'll have a long term effect. Many of his most ardent supporters will still become disaffected as he simply cannot be as brilliant and radical as some hope for, especially during his first term.
He'll make some controversial decisions, and likely make a few new appointments to the Supreme Court that'll have a significant effect. Arguments over the social divide within america between the dominionist 'right' and the secularist 'left' will continue, with the legal fight over Proposition 8 and George Takei's marriage being a big flashpoint.
I really, really really really, hope he won't fall into idiotic anti-trade protectionism as many of his supporters want him to.
Ireland votes No, Libertas worth watching
Europe: Ireland'll have another vote on the Lisbon Treaty. I suspect the No vote'll win through again (no evidence, mere gut instinct). The more interesting thing to watch will be how well Libertas does in the European Elections in June. Pro-EU, but anti Lisbon, decentralisers and democrats, but with some lunatic fringe followers. Might make the election a little more interesting and actually fought over Europe, depends on the GE timing as to whether it'll get any media coverage though. Depending on polling data, might be tempted to tactically vote for them, as things stand it's unlikely we'll get another LibDem MEP in Y&H, and I'd rather them than UKIP, Greens or the Bastard Nazis.
Meh, 7pm. Time to go pick the Shrub up from her Dad's.
Appears I've posted less about what's been going on in my life this year than any other calender year that I've had the LJ. I guess being happy gives me less to write about, right? Completely skint, but there y'go, can't have everything.
I don't do new years resolutions, and, well, predictions are a bit of a mugs game, but, well, might as well.
General Election this year likely
I suspect there'll be General Election this year. Really. Brown has to call one before June 2010, and when he decided not to call one in 2007, he said he'd go for "a full term", thing is British tradition is that a full term is 4+ years. Last time a Labour Prime Minister took over half way through a Parliament, he decided to go for the maximum possible term of office. His name was Callaghan. That decision proved to be a really big mistake.
Brown's a coward, waiting a risk
Brown is said by many to be a political coward not prone to taking risks. I agree with this assesment for the most part. They say this means he'll wait until the end. I think he has enough of a grounding in Labour history to believe that waiting until the end will be a bigger risk. Hence he won't wait until the end.
He might go in June, but more likely he'll go in the Autumn, after the party conference season. Regardless, it'll be an interesting year with a lot of UK politicking. For those of you that find the whole petty partizan sniping that UK politics frequently becomes a really annoying sideshow, sorry, but, well, the system encourages this crap.
Stop the crap, get involved
Best bet to stop it from happening is to change the system. Fixed term parliaments (like most other civilised countries have) would stop all the silly speculating, and an improved electoral system would encourage some positive campaigning and less negativity (note, 'encourage' and 'less' not 'ensure' and 'none'). Meh, rambling.
Obama rides high, social issues will a problem
Barack Obama gets sworn in as the next US President this month. I predict he'll have a strong honeymoon period riding high in the approval ratings. He'll be able to extend this by releasing lots of analysis of how bad things have been left by the current administration, and be seen to be doing stuff that'll have a long term effect. Many of his most ardent supporters will still become disaffected as he simply cannot be as brilliant and radical as some hope for, especially during his first term.
He'll make some controversial decisions, and likely make a few new appointments to the Supreme Court that'll have a significant effect. Arguments over the social divide within america between the dominionist 'right' and the secularist 'left' will continue, with the legal fight over Proposition 8 and George Takei's marriage being a big flashpoint.
I really, really really really, hope he won't fall into idiotic anti-trade protectionism as many of his supporters want him to.
Ireland votes No, Libertas worth watching
Europe: Ireland'll have another vote on the Lisbon Treaty. I suspect the No vote'll win through again (no evidence, mere gut instinct). The more interesting thing to watch will be how well Libertas does in the European Elections in June. Pro-EU, but anti Lisbon, decentralisers and democrats, but with some lunatic fringe followers. Might make the election a little more interesting and actually fought over Europe, depends on the GE timing as to whether it'll get any media coverage though. Depending on polling data, might be tempted to tactically vote for them, as things stand it's unlikely we'll get another LibDem MEP in Y&H, and I'd rather them than UKIP, Greens or the Bastard Nazis.
Meh, 7pm. Time to go pick the Shrub up from her Dad's.