I can't believe that I won't be here next week. (day 1/7 until Austin)

[loveandjoy]

If you read this before August 27th, I'll be in Harlingen

Comments

[kkazlowski]

that puzzle really really bothers me. i mean the answer is that youre supposed to switch to the other door right? but wtffff that seriously doesnt make sense ahhhh T.T cuz like i remember how someone explained it to me once but i realized last time i thought about this puzzle that the explanation was total bs...and meh i just lost

[loveandjoy]

OoOoOoOo
..but you're such a nerrrd! You're supposed to be able to figure it out! (And the reason why it bothers you is 'cause it's counterintuitive.) And damn, I really love my book (the one that I'm reading.. apparently I read). It has so many mathy references.. and even all the chapters are numbered by odd primes. It's so awesome.

[kkazlowski]

i mean it seems like you really should be doing conditional probability...like, ok say you picked door 1, door 2 is revealed to not be it, door 3 is the other one...you REALLY care about

p(door 3 being it | door 2 isnt)

which really ought to be the same as

p(door 1 being it | door 2 isnt)

...i mean meh? the explanation i heard totally doesnt take into account the idea of conditional probability, which is really important...

[loveandjoy]

yeah I'd think that it'd take into account the conditional probability as well ('cause the chance that the car is behind the door that you chose isn't 1/2, like most people would think)