Comments | kanzeon_2040: the "lost your own state" factor ... and Palin in 2012

kanzeon_2040

the "lost your own state" factor ... and Palin in 2012

Dec 08, 2010 14:53

I kept staring at the two most anomalous results, after putting together my GDP+primary+Republican presidential vote model. Why did Nixon do so incredibly well in 1972, and why did Gore do so incredibly poorly in 2000? Yes, I know Gore won the popular vote, but he should've done so much better based on how the economy was doing. And Nixon's ( Read more... )

stupid people tricks, 2012, spin

Comments 4

vicar December 8 2010, 20:34:29 UTC

I remember when Reagan was elected there were "riots" at the U of CA or some such. Now the really creepy are trying to turn the deficit hawk into a hero by naming everything after him.

robco December 8 2010, 20:45:41 UTC

I can see her possibly entering the race to ensure the teabaggers get the attention she feels they deserve, but I don't think she'd be able to clinch the nomination. Too many mainstream Republicans know she can't win. If he can get over the whole GDM thing, Mittens Romney might have a shot at it.

As for Obama, I'd rather see him decide not to run for a second term on his own rather than see a primary challenger. As disappointed as I've been with Obama, I don't want someone to pull a Ted Kennedy. I'd really like to see a good combination of experience, charisma and leadership in the next Democratic candidate. They seem to be able to nail substance (Gore, Kerry) or flash (Obama) but haven't been able to get both since Clinton.

kanzeon_2040 December 9 2010, 01:41:27 UTC

I don't think there's any chance Obama would quit. It takes too much ego to get to the Oval Office, these kinds of people don't leave willingly.

robco December 9 2010, 01:46:19 UTC

Which is why I'm worried that we'll see a GOP President in 2013. I don't think Obama will be able to mount nearly as effective campaign as he did in 2008, or get the voter turnout he managed then. The Hope thing or "Yes We Can" isn't going to fly this time. I think he's going to wind up being another Carter, just not as effective. Unless the GOP has a total meltdown and actually nominates Palin, I think that's what will happen.

Of course one could hope that he gets better advisors, finds a spine and actually becomes willing to fight for something...