Christmas is coming and the goose is getting *gurk*:

[jrittenhouse]

Hey, Susan, here’s a knitting project for Meredith…

“They’re still over at the bar talkin’ about which Bronte sister they think would be the best in bed.” “Why settle for one when you could have all three?”

Now, you’ll believe reindeer can play a bad game of rummy with Santa.

A football for Grandma by Allan Sherman. Yes, that one. It’s a story.

Comments

[jrittenhouse]

We only exist to serve.

62 million dead?

[marklafon]

I agree that it is an optmistic under estimate. While there are factors that should make it more survivable there are also factors that it more deadly, mainly increased population density, which increases spread, and the sheer increase of numbers which allows for more hosts to replicate, and mutate in. And simply because there are better medicines and treatments does not mean that they will be used.

Re: 62 million dead?

[jrittenhouse]

I thought that some of the values they were poking in were sound, but they were missing a lot of variables, including the ones you mentioned.

The other element that worries me as much or more is that so much of modern life is premised on a just-in-time inventory and supply philosophy that demands quick and efficient communications and transport. Have breakdowns in this, especially the latter, because people are too sick to work, or too upset/busy with care/etc and remember the New Orleans cops who took a powder in Katrina.

Short answer - serious societal chaos, especially in regard to essential transport needs. You can send all the messages you like, but someone has to pack it up and send it to you.

Re: 62 million dead?

[marklafon]

I had forgotten to factor in transportation. It is a big item in modern epidemics. First it will allow for a rapid spread and then, as it breaks down, distribution of supplies will be affected. The just-in-time concept is pretty much useless with vacine distribution because of the time needed to make the stuff. (Up to 18 months with traditional methods.) But JIT will hit serious roadblocks with other, on hand (or should be) supplies

Re: 62 million dead?

[marklafon]

I forgot to mention that there have several simulations run by local government types to gage the response to diasters such as killer flu epidemics. They have rapidly degenrated into squabbles over resourses. First responders (police, fire) think that they should have priority since they are the first line of defense. Second tier responders (doctors, nurses, etc.) feel that they should control supplies since they are dealing with the ill & injured. And the administrative types (Mayors, councilmen, etc.) claim that they are vital to the operation of the other groups. Somehow they all gloss over the elderly, very young, and already sick people who are most prone to be the first to die. I guess that having an MD and working for the fire/police departments before being elected Mayor is the best bet.

Still...

[seawasp]

... even if you triple it, it's puny. Not even worth worrying about.

You say "pandemic" and "millions" and people think "Black Death!". But the Black Death killed 25-30% of all the people in Europe. If you had a worldwide pandemic with THAT death rate, you're talking nearly 2 BILLION dead.

Even the NASTY flus -- especially today -- are generally nuisance diseases in any reasonably developed area. Sure, they'll kill some people, but so do a lot of things. (I'm one of the likely fatalities, actually, as an asthmatic)

Re: Still...

[jrittenhouse]

See my response above. I know that they're getting serious about What To Do if a lot of the Feds can't come to the office because of this sort of thing.