The Race for the Senate

[jpmassar]

There are 37 seats in the US Senate scheduled for elections in November. 34 of the elections will be for full terms, while three others (Delaware, New York and West Virginia) are for shorter terms. 19 of the 37 seats are currently held by Democrats, and 18 by Republicans

Comments

[quietlion]

I'll be voting against Patty Murray (D-WA), winner of the "stupidest senator" award and advocate for every form of entitlement.

[jpmassar]

Apparently Jim Bunning and Debbie Stabenow have eclipsed her in cluelessness (which, in 2006 was 'not a rocket scientist'). As far as I can determine, Murray only won this honor some time ago. Perhaps she's smartened up (or, more likely, the depths of Senate dumbness have been deepened)

[barking_iguana]

The Republicans always vote for a Democratic woman in that poll. But the woman falsely portrayed as an air-head varies over time.

[barking_iguana]

I'm a little more optimistic than you on Colorado and Illinois, and more pessimistic on Wisconsin. I fear you're right on Pennsylvania, despite the fact that an adequately funded, well-run campaign should be able to clobber Toomey in Pennsylvania.

I don't have a feel for th Iowa race yet at all, so I can't agree with you yet. I think you're too optimistic in New Hampshire and probably too pessimistic in Ohio. I might give us 10% in Arizona, but that's quibbling. In Florida, I think you've got a good number for the intermediate outcomes you're judging, but I think there's a non-trivial chance Crist will go back to the GOP once elected.

Overall, I agree with you considerably more than I do with InTrade or with Nate's old numbers.

[jpmassar]

IIRC, the latest polling out of PA was pretty scary, especially wrt Obama's approval rating.

In Iowa, there's been no polling except for Rasmussen for a long time. Grassley could well be under 50% 'in reality', as opposed to in 'Rasmussen space'.

The only way Crist goes back to the R's is if the R's regain the Senate or perhaps if his vote means they regain the Senate. He's far too smart to put himself into the position of a no-senority Senator in the minority.

McCain is old enough that I suppose there is some non-negligible probability he is unable to finish the campaign, but he seems to be a hearty sonofobitch.

[barking_iguana]

I think Crist may join the Rs if he things they will take the Senate before his first term is over, even if they haven't yet by the time he takes office.

[jpmassar]

Things may be very interesting. Especially if the House also teeters on the edge of a control swing.

[tom_bayes]

I'm voting for Jack Conway, but I think you are being awfully optimistic for Kentucky.

[jpmassar]

I'm just counting on Paul insulting motherhood and the Kentucky Derby before November. Surely there's at least a 90% chance of that, no?

[tom_bayes]

The problem is that a lot of the voters either won't hear about Paul's mistakes or will write them off as MSM/librul attempts to smear him.

Now, if Randy mouths off about UK basketball, then he's toast.

[clutch_c]

If Paul and Angle both lose, they would make a very nice Republican ticket for November 2012.

[rcfox]

The last poll on the Fiorina/Boxer race had Fiorina ahead (the poll was by KPIX in the Bay Area).

I believe that in Florida only Rubio or Crist will be elected. Given that, I believe the number should be closer to 50-50 (where I think the race is today).

The latest polling in Wisconsin has that race dead-even. The same is true in Nevada. (I know, Angle is, well, bizarre, but Reid keeps putting his foot in his mouth, too.) Kentucky is too conservative and the national scene too miserable for Democrats for Conway to win.

While you and I likely disagree on the desired outcome, it will be interesting to see the outcome in 75 days.

will

[jpmassar]

I also think only Rubio or Crist can win. But that means that come November, intelligent Dems will vote for Crist. He has nowhere to go but up in this scenario, and he is already leading.

The only way Rubio wins is if the Dem improves his vote percentage (at the expense of Crist).

In Wisconsin, all the relevant polling is Rasmussen, and the primary has not been held. It's hard to say much of anything at this point, but given such a lack, I give the edge to the incumbent.