It's (Not Just) the Economy, Stupid

[jpmassar]

I wondered what would happen if I looked at the correlation between unemployment and presidential approval/disapproval ratings, having claimed in a number of comments this last year that the economy is the super-dominant factor in the mood of the country right now and, implicitly, generally how the country views a President.

Comments

[barking_iguana]

I think the correlation would be higher with the most recently announced unemployment rate, which I guess would lag by a month or two.

[jpmassar]

You could think of it that way, as a psychological reaction.

Or you could think of it in the sense that the unemployment rate announced for a month is what happened to people during the month when the polls were being taken, and so affected people's feelings as it was happening.

[barking_iguana]

As you say, unemployment isn't everything. From 1965-1980, inflation was making more headlines and probably causing more worry.

Calling the bottom a loss

[freelikebeer]

How much of the bottom do you have to call a loss to keep the rest of everybody happy with you? I would think it is a fundamental strategic concern [if not particularly humanitarian; I was going to say 'not terribly humanitarian', but that is an oxymoron, and in this case turns out to be apt].

Re: Calling the bottom a loss

[jpmassar]

Huh?

Using my specialized neural compression algorithm

[freelikebeer]

I crammed three thoughts into one comment and came up with gobbledygook. BRILLIANT!

I'll explain it next week when I have time for a mental break.

Did you read ...

[freelikebeer]

Gelman yesterday?